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Ethiopia War Security Review, November 13, 2026

Michael DeAngelo

Contributor: Alexander Brown

Data Cutoff: This review covers the period from November 10 at 9:00 A.M. EST to November 13 at 9:00 A.M. EST.

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Key Takeaways:

  • Northern Axis. Local sources claimed that Amhara Fano National Movement fighters fought alongside Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) forces against Ethiopian federal forces near the Ethiopia-Eritrea border, although the Critical Threats Project (CTP) could not confirm the unverified claims.
  • Western Axis. The Ethiopian military reportedly sustained fighting with TPLF and Eritrean forces around Badme, an Eritrean border town.
  • Central Axis. Ethiopian federal and TPLF forces reportedly clashed in the mountainous Tigray interior south of Axum.
  • Major Domestic Political Developments. The interim Tigray regional government has continued setting up its administration amid internal tensions. Ethiopian security forces are reportedly conducting forced conscription in the Oromia region and Addis Ababa, the Ethiopian capital.
  • Regional and International Activity. Various international actors affirmed their support for de-escalation between Ethiopia and Eritrea, although officials from the two countries have continued to accuse each other of escalation.

Figure 1. ENDF and TPLF Battle Across Tigray

Note: ENDF stands for Ethiopian National Defense Force. TPLF stands for Tigray People’s Liberation Front.

Source: Michael DeAngelo; Liam Karr; Alexander Brown.

Eastern Axis: Afar Region

Nothing significant to report.

Northern Axis: Rama-Zalambessa-Dallol

Local sources claimed that Amhara Fano National Movement (AFNM) fighters fought alongside the Tigray Defense Force (TDF), the TPLF’s military wing, against Ethiopian federal forces near the Ethiopia-Eritrea border, although CTP could not confirm the unverified claims. Federal and TDF forces reportedly clashed around Rama, which is approximately 20 miles north of Adwa and just south of the Ethiopia-Eritrea border, on November 7.[1] Armed Conflict Location & Event Data (ACLED) reported that federal forces retook Rama, while the TDF claimed to have overcome federal forces and inflicted mass casualties upon them.[2] Fighting between the two sides reportedly broke out again around Rama between November 9 and 11.[3] The Ethiopian news outlet Wazema Radio cited residents who claimed that the AFNM and Afar Revolutionary Democratic Unity Front—both of whom are members of the Alliance for Survival rebel coalition with the TPLF—fought alongside the TDF.[4] Conflict tracker Sajid Nadeem and another conflict tracker on X also reported that the AFNM participated in the fighting, although CTP could not confirm the unverified claims.[5]

Western Axis: Humera-Addi Remets-Shire

The Ethiopian military (Ethiopian National Defense Force, ENDF) reportedly sustained fighting with TDF and Eritrean forces around Badme, an Eritrean border town. The ENDF reportedly began fighting with TDF and Eritrean forces around the town on November 9 following several days of mutual buildups, although CTP could not verify whether fighting occurred on the Ethiopian or Eritrean side of the border.[6] Wazema Radio and a conflict tracker on X reported that the ENDF and TDF continued clashing on November 10 near Gomahalo, which is an Ethiopian village approximately 20 miles south of Badme.[7] The ENDF and Eritrean military (Eritrean Defense Forces, EDF) reportedly traded artillery fire around Badme from November 11 to 13.[8] The EDNF also reportedly conducted drone strikes on EDF positions.[9] The Ethiopian Conflict Map and Sajid Nadeem claimed that the ENDF captured Badme on November 12, although ACLED reported on November 13 that neither the ENDF nor the EDF controlled the town but that “Eritrean intelligence personnel” had been present.[10] The Ethiopian news outlet Addis Standard cited a resident of Badme who said that ENDF forces have been present in Badme since November 12, however.[11]

Central Axis: Abiy Addi-Adwa-Axum

Ethiopian federal forces and the TDF reportedly clashed in the mountainous Tigray interior south of Axum. The TDF has contested Ethiopian federal efforts to control areas around Tigray’s city belt since mid-October 2026.[12] The Ethiopian Conflict Map and Sajid Nadeem reported that the two sides clashed near Semema, which is approximately 20 miles south of Axum, on November 11.[13]  

Southern Axis: Mekele-Alamata-Sekota-Woldia

Nothing significant to report.

Northern Amhara Sector: From B21 Northward

Nothing significant to report.

Other Rebel Kinetic Activity

Nothing significant to report.

Major Domestic Political Developments

The interim Tigray regional government has continued setting up its administration amid internal tensions. The interim administration has reportedly faced discord over appointments and governance, including payment of civil servants’ salaries.[14] A conflict tracker on X reported on November 11 that 11 senior members of Ethiopian Prime Ministerial Adviser Getachew Reda’s Simret party, which heavily influences the interim administration, resigned due to the discord.[15] Two conflict trackers separately reported on November 10 that the interim administration appointed Daniel Negash as “coordinator” for the Western Zone, which is disputed by Amhara and Tigrayan communities.[16]

Ethiopian security forces are reportedly conducting forced conscription in the Oromia region and Addis Ababa. The Ethiopian Human Rights Commission and Addis Standard previously reported on forced conscription in Oromia in at least December 2024 and August 2026, respectively.[17] Addis Standard and the Canadian news outlet The Globe and Mail cited residents of Oromia and Addis Ababa on November 12 who reported that Ethiopian security forces had forcibly conscripted some of their family members and other civilians.[18] The Globe and Mail cited two residents of Addis Ababa who separately reported that the ENDF had sent their sons to the front lines in Tigray.[19] Addis Standard cited residents of Jimma, one of the largest cities in Oromia, who described forced conscription as a factor that sparked protests against regional and federal authorities on November 9 and 10.[20]

Regional and International Activity

Various international actors affirmed their support for de-escalation between Ethiopia and Eritrea, although officials from the two countries have continued to accuse each other of escalation. Five Democratic members of the US Senate Foreign Relations Committee sent a letter to US Secretary of State Marco Rubio on November 10 that urged Rubio to increase US efforts to mediate between Ethiopia, Ethiopian rebel groups, and Eritrea.[21] The Democratic senators requested that the US State Department avoid offering Eritrea’s port of Assab to Ethiopia in any mediation and discourage Egypt, Eritrea, and Sudan from supporting Ethiopian rebel groups.[22] The Group of Seven (G7) foreign ministers separately released a statement on November 11 after meeting in Paris that expressed “great concern” over tensions between Ethiopia and Eritrea and called for “maximum restraint” and “diplomatic solutions.”[23] Special Envoy of the United Nations (UN) Secretary-General for the Horn of Africa Guang Cong met with Getachew on November 11 to discuss the security situation in the Horn of Africa. Cong has previously pledged that the UN will work toward peace and stability in the region.[24]

Ethiopian and Eritrean officials have continued to accuse each other of escalation, which has been a pattern since the renewed war in northern Ethiopia began in late September 2026. Getachew posted on X that he discussed the “destructive role the Regime in Asmara is playing in the region” during his meeting with Cong.[25] Getachew also directly accused Eritrean President Isaias Afwerki and Sudanese Transitional Sovereignty Council President Abdel Fattah al Burhan of equipping, arming, and coordinating with Ethiopian rebel groups, including by helping them conduct drone attacks in Ethiopia.[26] Eritrean Information Minister Yemane Gebremeskel posted on X on November 11 that Ethiopia has a “regional” war agenda.[27] The Eritrean Ministry of Information published an editorial on November 12 that accused Ethiopia of invading Eritrea.[28]

[1] https://acleddata.com/ethiopia-alerts-archive; https://x.com/Yonigussie/status/2119495741085245915; https://x.com/hornafricanguy/status/2119342700499456013; https://x.com/hornafricanguy/status/2119699430253150464; https://www.criticalthreats.org/briefs/ethiopia-war-security-review/november-10-2026   

[2] https://acleddata.com/ethiopia-alerts-archive; https://x.com/Yonigussie/status/2119495741085245915; https://www.criticalthreats.org/briefs/ethiopia-war-security-review/november-10-2026

[3] https://wazema.substack.com/p/fighting-reported-in-badme-as-ethiopian; https://x.com/hornafricanguy/status/2120238508480610632; https://x.com/neby_G/status/2120703696359014461

[4] https://wazema.substack.com/p/fighting-reported-in-badme-as-ethiopian

[5] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QCczGjQoRA8; https://x.com/hornafricanguy/status/2120238508480610632 

[6] https://t.me/ethiomapping/91; https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jhrBj1kivkI; https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y-d7e96mG-c; https://x.com/Majakovsk73/status/2119869844698829234; https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jhrBj1kivkI

https://acleddata.com/ethiopia-alerts-archive; https://t.me/ethiomapping/88; https://wazema.substack.com/p/fighting-reported-in-badme-as-ethiopian; https://x.com/hornafricanguy/status/2119342700499456013; https://www.criticalthreats.org/briefs/ethiopia-war-security-review/november-10-2026 

[7] https://x.com/hornafricanguy/status/2120238508480610632; https://wazema.substack.com/p/fighting-reported-in-badme-as-ethiopian; https://x.com/hornafricanguy/status/2120896747547345075 

[8] https://addisstandard dot com/diplomatic-sources-report-escalating-clashes-near-badme-on-ethiopia-eritrea-border-as-residents-flee-bombardment; https://x.com/hornafricanguy/status/2120571903395995950; https://t.me/ethiomapping/95; https://t.me/ethiomapping/96;  https://x.com/getachew_temare/status/2121214181953163566; https://x.com/AbelTsgab/status/2121176256737673386 

[9] https://addisstandard dot com/diplomatic-sources-report-escalating-clashes-near-badme-on-ethiopia-eritrea-border-as-residents-flee-bombardment; https://x.com/hornafricanguy/status/2120571903395995950; https://t.me/ethiomapping/95; https://t.me/ethiomapping/96; https://x.com/Majakovsk73/status/2120830843962675624

[10] https://t.me/ethiomapping/97; https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MgL3162iadk; https://x.com/Majakovsk73/status/2120917851565654452; https://acleddata.com/ethiopia-alerts-archive

[11] https://addisstandard dot com/diplomatic-sources-report-escalating-clashes-near-badme-on-ethiopia-eritrea-border-as-residents-flee-bombardment

[12] https://www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/libya-turkey-tplf-ethiopia-fgs-al-shabaab-somalia-issp-jnim-mali#Ethiopia

[13] https://t.me/s/ethiomapping/94;

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wl7uuD5j38M

[14] https://wazema.substack.com/p/kenya-seeks-ethiopian-intervention; https://x.com/reda_getachew/status/2120152759097770398; https://x.com/Zeate1/status/2120158314227016142; https://www.criticalthreats.org/briefs/ethiopia-war-security-review/november-10-2026

[15] https://x.com/hornafricanguy/status/2120460236792147979; https://ethiopiandesk dot com/interim-govt-in-tigray-established/; https://x.com/PMEthiopia/status/2111009485414371754; https://t.me/wazema_radio/4182; https://acleddata.com/ethiopia-alerts-archive; https://www.criticalthreats.org/briefs/ethiopia-war-security-review/october-16-2026

[16] https://x.com/hornafricanguy/status/2120238508480610632;  https://x.com/Wazemaradio/status/2120235869462294615

[17] https://addisstandard dot com/forced-conscription-resurfaces-across-oromia-as-ethiopia-continues-to-grapple-with-security-crises; https://addisstandard dot com/people-are-getting-desperate-jimma-protests-expose-growing-anger-over-forced-conscription-extortion

[18] https://www.theglobeandmail.com/world/article-ethiopian-men-abducted-military-service-tensions-rise-in-horn-of; https://addisstandard dot com/people-are-getting-desperate-jimma-protests-expose-growing-anger-over-forced-conscription-extortion

[19] https://www.theglobeandmail.com/world/article-ethiopian-men-abducted-military-service-tensions-rise-in-horn-of

[20] https://addisstandard dot com/people-are-getting-desperate-jimma-protests-expose-growing-anger-over-forced-conscription-extortion

[21] https://www.foreign.senate.gov/press/dem/release/shaheen-booker-coons-merkley-van-hollen-demand-state-department-action-amidst-escalating-conflict-in-ethiopia

[22] https://www.foreign.senate.gov/press/dem/release/shaheen-booker-coons-merkley-van-hollen-demand-state-department-action-amidst-escalating-conflict-in-ethiopia

[23] https://www.canada.ca/en/global-affairs/news/2026/11/joint-statement-following-the-g7-foreign-ministers-meeting-in-paris.html

[24] https://x.com/reda_getachew/status/2120468220268188074; https://x.com/reda_getachew/status/2112826098924880052

[25] https://x.com/reda_getachew/status/2120468220268188074

[26] https://x.com/reda_getachew/status/2120468220268188074

[27] https://x.com/hawelti/status/2120527948893835419

[28] https://shabait dot com/2026/11/12/%e1%8a%a9%e1%88%89%e1%8a%95%e1%89%b5%e1%8a%93%e1%8b%ad-%e1%8a%95%e1%8b%93%e1%8a%ba%e1%8d%a1-%e1%88%98%e1%88%98%e1%88%8a%e1%88%b1-%e1%8b%9d%e1%8a%b9%e1%88%8b%e1%8b%95-%e1%88%83