Congo War Security Review

Data Cutoff: October 6, 2025, at 1 P.M. EST

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Key Takeaway: The Congolese government declined to sign the US-backed regional economic framework over security concerns last week. The Congolese government and M23 will reportedly try to resolve several significant disagreements in a new round of Qatari-mediated peace talks this week. M23 captured several villages as it continued its westward advance into Shabunda district in South Kivu. M23 staged a public ceremony displaying over 9,300 new troops.

Kinetic Activity in Rutshuru & Eastern Masisi Districts

Nothing significant to report.

Northern Axis: Lubero-Butembo-Beni-Bunia

Nothing significant to report.

Southern Axis: Bukavu-Uvira-Baraka-Kalemie

M23 repelled a Congolese army attack in Kalehe district in northern South Kivu. The Congolese media outlet Kivu Morning Post reported that M23 repelled the attack in Chambombo village in Kalehe on October 5.[i] Chambombo is roughly 15 miles west of Numbi, a local mining town, on a local road.

Northwest Axis: Masisi-Walikale-Lubutu-Kisangani

M23 clashed with pro-Congolese government Wazalendo fighters in north-central Masisi district in North Kivu. Congolese media reported that M23 clashed with Wazalendo fighters in several villages in the Bashali chiefdom, including Kahira—about twenty miles northeast of Masisi town—on October 5.[ii]

M23 attacked Wazalendo fighters in several villages in southern Masisi district. M23 reportedly launched attacks on Wazalendo positions in at least three villages, including Luke, in southern Masisi on October 6.[iii] Luke is about 13 miles south of Masisi town and 14 miles west of Rubaya on local roads. M23 had reportedly reinforced its positions around Luke in early October before launching the attacks.[iv]

Southwest Axis: Bukavu-Kamituga-Shabunda-Kindu

M23 captured several villages as it continued its westward advance into Shabunda district in South Kivu. M23 captured Lubimbe—the last village on the RP503 before Shabunda district to the west—from the Congolese army and Wazalendo fighters around October 4.[v] M23 then advanced about eight miles west on the RP503 and clashed with pro-Congolese government forces in Mayimingi village and near the Kibandamangobo forest between October 4 and October 6.[vi]

M23 advanced north from Nzibira into southern Kabare district in South Kivu. The Congolese media outlet Radio Okapi reported that M23 attacked pro-Congolese government positions in several villages in southern Kabare—including Luhago—on October 4.[vii] Luhago is located in a remote area about eight miles north of Nzibira on a local road.

Major Political Developments

The Congolese government declined to sign the US-backed regional economic framework over security concerns last week. Representatives from the DRC and Rwanda did not sign the US-led Regional Economic Integration Framework (REIF) as expected on October 3.[viii] The REIF centers around cooperation in economic initiatives in sectors including energy, infrastructure, mining, national park management and tourism, and public health.[ix] Reuters reported on October 3 that Congolese officials will not sign the REIF until “90 percent” of Rwandan troops withdraw from the eastern DRC.[x] The Rwandan foreign minister denied the Reuters report on social media on October 4 and claimed that the Congolese delegation did not demand Rwandan troop withdrawal as a precondition to signing the REIF during the negotiations.[xi] Bloomberg cited insider sources on October 3 who said that Congolese officials did not want to sign the deal while M23 shows no intention of “pulling back” and fighting persists in the eastern DRC.[xii] DRC President Félix Tshisekedi said that the REIF is still viable, claimed that Rwanda has “disguised” its intervention in the eastern DRC through M23, and called on the United States to help secure the region to benefit from critical mineral investment in an interview with Scripps News on October 3.[xiii] Reuters cited two insider sources who said that the United States is pushing for both sides to sign the deal by late October ahead of a head of state summit in Washington, DC.[xiv]

The Congolese government and M23 will reportedly try to resolve several significant disagreements in a new round of Qatari-mediated peace talks this week. The sixth round of talks will reportedly focus on prisoner exchange, which has been the main obstacle to advancing talks toward a full peace agreement.[xv] The French state media outlet Radio France Internationale (RFI) reported on October 6 that the DRC and M23 have yet to agree on the prisoner exchange lists and submit them to the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC).[xvi] The ICRC signed separate agreements with the DRC and M23 in September that stipulated that the ICRC will only facilitate the swaps after both sides agree on the content of the lists.[xvii] RFI reported on October 6 that the Congolese government demanded that the prisoner swap take place as part of a final agreement, whereas M23 demanded that it happens before the two sides sign a deal.[xviii] RFI reported that M23 has demanded that the Congolese government release its prisoners whom the DRC has excluded from a potential prisoner swap and sentenced to death for “serious crimes.”[xix] RFI reported that the two sides will also discuss the late-July ceasefire, which CTP assessed broke down in late September.[xx]

M23 staged a public ceremony displaying over 9,300 new troops. M23 held a graduation ceremony for what the group claimed was 9,350 fighters who completed training at M23’s main training facility in Tchanzu in Rutshuru district in North Kivu on October 1.[xxi] General Sultani Makenga, M23’s military chief, said in a speech to the new troops that the mission of M23 remains to overthrow Tshisekedi and “liberate” the entire DRC.[xxii] M23 previously commissioned nearly 7,500 new troops in mid-September.[xxiii]

M23 launched another central banking initiative. The group launched the Autorité de Régulation du Secteur Économique, Financier et des Assurances (AREFA) on October 3.[xxiv] Pro-M23 sources said on social media that the AREFA will function as a central bank in M23-controlled areas and that it aims to stabilize the local and regional economy.[xxv]