Threat Update


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CTP's Threat Update series provides you with a weekly analysis and assessment of the al Qaeda network and Iran.

[Notice: The Critical Threats Project frequently cites sources from foreign domains. All such links are identified with an asterisk(*) for the reader's awareness.]

Below are the takeaways from the week:


Iranian and Iranian-backed forces have attacked US and partner interests in recent weeks in response to US economic pressure. The IRGC likely attacked two oil tankers in the Gulf of Oman on June 13. Iranian proxies and partners escalated against the US and partners in Iraq and Yemen. Iranian and Iranian-backed forces may continue such attacks to impose a cost for the US pressure campaign.

Iranian pressure against Europe rises.


The al Houthi movement conducted attacks against the US and partners to support an Iranian escalation. Iran likely facilitated escalatory Houthi attacks against a US drone and a Saudi airport. Iranian forces subsequently escalated attacks in the Gulf of Oman. Houthi threats against *Egypt and oil tankers in the Red Sea may be intended to keep the Suez Canal open to Iranian oil.

Taking the Lead Back in Yemen


The war for Tripoli will likely last months,  worsening the conditions that are allowing Islamic State and al Qaeda-linked militants to increase activity in Libya. An attempt by the UN-backed government to draw international support away from militia commander Khalifa Haftar will incentivize him to continue attacking the capital. Haftar could win the current fight in Tripoli by striking a deal with other militia leaders, leading to an anti-Haftar insurgency.