Pakistan Security Brief

Pakistan votes in historic polls; Sharif's victory speech names key targets for improvement; PML-N likely will not need to form coalition government with rivals PTI or PPP; PTI to become main opposition party and lead Khyber Pakhtunkhwa; Nawaz Sharif discusses his priorities, including international ties and economic issues; Sharif names Ishaq Dar as next finance minister; Allegations of foul play in Karachi and Lahore; Voting to be re-run in parts of Karachi; Turnout estimated at 60 percent; PPP strong performance only in Sindh; 29 people killed in Election Day violence; Blasts targeting ANP in Karachi kill eleven; Six killed in suicide attack in Balochistan; Polling in FATA peaceful; EU observers: 64 killed on Election Day; Obama congratulates Pakistan on free election; Reporter Declan Walsh expelled from Pakistan; Indian PM congratulates Sharif and hopes for better relations; Cautious optimism in India over Sharif's win; Karzai congratulates Sharif and hopes for peace and brotherhood; Pakistani stock exchange surges in response to Sharif's victory.

Domestic Politics

  • Pakistanis voted in general elections on Saturday, electing new members to the lower houses of both the federal and provincial governments. Former Pakistani Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif emerged victorious, earning an unprecedented third term in power. Speaking with the Wall Street Journal after his solid win on Saturday, Nawaz Sharif said that he would prioritize improving relations with the U.S. as well as with India and Afghanistan. He pointed out that U.S.-Pakistan relations had been good in his first two terms, and said he hoped to continue to build upon. Sharif said he was “hopeful and confident” that the U.S. and Pakistan would be able to come to an agreement about drone strikes. He said he was positive about his relations with the army, despite its overthrow of his 1999 government, and glad not to have to rely on the “crutches” of coalition partners. Sharif campaigned on his credentials as a businessman, and promises to address Pakistan’s ailing economy.[1]

  • While official results have yet to be announced, it appears that Nawaz Sharif's PML-N party will not need to form a coalition in order to form government. With an estimated 130 seats in the bag, the PML-N did not win enough to have a simple majority in the national assembly, but the BBC speculates that independent candidates, who usually vote with the majority party, will be more than enough to fill the gap. Sharif won most of his seats in the Punjab and will also form government in Punjab province.[2]

  • Nawaz Sharif's victory speech in Lahore noted power cuts, inflation, and unemployment as key targets for improvements. He has also begun putting together his cabinet, despite his win still being unofficial. He has named Ishaq Dar as the next finance minister, and Dar will reportedly have a budget ready by June.[3]

  • Imran Khan's PTI party so far appears to have won a plurality of seats in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province, come in second in Punjab, and second nationally. According to senior party official Asad Omar, the PTI is ready to play a strong, active opposition role and had never expected to win outright control of the central government. Imran Khan praised the participation of women and youth voters in the election, and promised to turn Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa’s administration into a “model government”.[4]

  • The Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP) had a strong showing only in its traditional strongholds in Sindh province. It is currently struggling with the PTI for second place in total number of National Assembly seats won.[5]

  • Balochistan showed an “unprecedented” turnout for elections on Saturday, according to the Wall Street Journal, resulting in the National Party, a Baloch party, leading in seven provincial assembly seat races. The party, which boycotted the 2008 elections, reportedly hopes that representation in the incoming government will help in alleviating some of the province's problems.[6]

  • Allegations of foul play are coming to light, including reports from the PTI of vote rigging and intimidation of female voters in Lahore by opposing parties. While accepting defeat, Imran Khan made accusations of poll-rigging in remarks broadcast on television and said he intends to issue a white-paper detailing voter fraud. His supporters took to the streets of Karachi and Lahore on Sunday in protest. Two were injured in Karachi when unknown gunmen fired into crowds gathered at Teen Talwar. In response to the protests in Karachi against his party, Muttahida Qaumi Movement (MQM) leader Altaf Hussain made threats against those “hatching conspiracies” against the MQM. Hussain said Pakistan’s “establishment” should accept his party's public mandate or “detach” Karachi from the rest of Pakistan.[7]

  • Voting will be re-run in parts of Karachi, according to the Election Commission of Pakistan (ECP), who said that free and fair elections were not possible in the city due to polling stations being closed unexpectedly, ballot papers and boxes not arriving on time, and other instances of voting irregularities and fraud. In many areas of the city polling stations remained open long past the appointed closing time of 5 PM.[8]

  • According to the ECP, voter turnout for Saturday's elections was approximately 60 percent, a marked contrast to the 44 percent turnout in the general elections in 2008.[9]

Election Violence

  • A total of 29 people were killed in various attacks on Election Day. Two blasts outside an office of the Awami National Party (ANP) killed eleven in Karachi. More than 40 people were wounded in the explosions, including local ANP candidate Amanullah Mehsud. One person was killed on a road in Karachi when a bomb targeted a bus of ANP supporters. Two security personnel were killed when a bomb detonated near the polling station they were guarding in Karachi. In Peshawar, one person was killed by a bomb outside a polling station. A bomb near a police van killed two people in Peshawar. Gunmen shot to death two soldiers of the Frontier Corps outside a polling station in Sorab, Balochistan. In Chaman, Balochistan, a shootout between two groups supporting different candidates killed six people.[10]

  • Two attacks in Badaber late on Saturday killed two policemen and wounded eight others. Two roadside improvised explosive devices (IEDs) killed the policemen and wounded six in Malikhel area, while an exchange of fire with militants in Sheikh Mohammedi village wounded two policemen. The militants allegedly wanted to kidnap polling station workers.[11]

  • Polling in the Federally Administrated Tribal Areas was largely peaceful and successful, reports the Express Tribune. Despite threats of large-scale militant attacks, large numbers of security forces kept polls peaceful except for a few small skirmishes, and many women unexpectedly turned out to vote.[12]

U.S.-Pakistan Relations

  • On Sunday, President Obama congratulated Pakistan in a statement praising the competitive campaigns and free election, “despite intimidation by violent extremists.”[13]

  • Writing for the BBC, noted analyst Ahmed Rashid claims that Sharif's biggest foreign policy challenge will be relations with the U.S. He campaigned as anti-U.S., protesting drone strikes, and as chief of Punjab, his brother expelled USAID. However, Sharif knows that cooperation with the U.S. will be necessary for securing IMF and other foreign funding and U.S. support for peace processes with India and Afghanistan. Negotiations will be particularly necessary over drone strikes, which Sharif sees as a challenge to national sovereignty. Meanwhile, he will extend his “full support” to the drawdown of American troops from Afghanistan.[14]

Militancy

  • At least six people, including two policemen, three paramilitary soldiers, and one passerby, were killed on Sunday night in a suicide attack on the convoy of Inspector General Mushtaq Sukhera of the Balochistan Police in Quetta. Sukhera survived, while over 60 were injured.[15]

Indo-Pak Relations

  • Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh congratulated Nawaz Sharif on his victory, and Pakistan for holding elections in the face of violence. Singh said that he hoped for better relations between the two countries. He invited Sharif to visit India at a mutually convenient time. Indian Foreign Minister Salman Khurshid also offered his congratulations, saying that “India welcomes whatever result…comes out of a democratic election.”[16]

  • Lalit Mansingh, a veteran Indian diplomat, referred to Sharif as India's “best bet” among the available candidates, and the New York Times reports cautious optimism in India over future Indian-Pakistani ties as a result of Sharif’s victory. More concerns in India are reportedly centered around the Pakistan Army than the prime minister: in the opinion of K.C. Singh, former Indian ambassador to Iran, the real danger is that Sharif will make an overture to India before having the full support of Pakistani generals.[17]

Afghan-Pakistan Relations

  • In a statement on Sunday, Afghan President Hamid Karzai expressed hopes for “peace and brotherhood” between Afghanistan and Pakistan's new leadership and cooperation to root out the Taliban insurgencies active in both countries. Karzai also called Sharif on Sunday to congratulate him.[18]

Economy

  • The Karachi Stock Exchange KSE 100 index rose to a record high on Monday in response to the election of Nawaz Sharif, seen as pro-business and investment. Investors' hopes are based on his large margin of victory, success running Punjab in the past, conciliatory approach to the Taliban, and outreach to India and the U.S.[19]

Press Freedom

  • Declan Walsh, Islamabad bureau chief for the New York Times, was ordered to leave the country early on Thursday morning on the orders of members of the Pakistani Interior Ministry. The only reason given for the order was alleged “undesirable activities” officials accused Walsh of involvement in. The executive editor of the paper wrote a letter of protest to Pakistan's Interior Ministry and is seeking to get his visa reinstated.[20]


[1] Yaroslav Trofimov and Saeed Shah, “Pakistan's Next Leader Vows Better U.S. Ties,” The Wall Street Journal, May 12, 2013. Available at http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887324715704578479042720562474.html
Yaroslav Trofimov, “Sharif Eyes Improved U.S.-Pakistan Ties,” The Wall Street Journal, May 11, 2013. Available at http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887324744104578477242412783644.html?mod=wsj_streaming_stream
Richard Leiby, “Pakista'ns Nawaz Sharif locks down victory,” The Washington Post, May 12, 2013. Available at http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/asia_pacific/pakistans-nawaz-sharif-locks-down-victory/2013/05/12/15f84ba2-bb0a-11e2-b537-ab47f0325f7c_story.html
[2] M. Ilyas Khan, “After the joy of victory, the hard work begins for Nawaz Sharif,” BBC News, May 12, 2013. Available at http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-22502275
Richard Leiby, “Pakista'ns Nawaz Sharif locks down victory,” The Washington Post, May 12, 2013. Available at http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/asia_pacific/pakistans-nawaz-sharif-locks-down-victory/2013/05/12/15f84ba2-bb0a-11e2-b537-ab47f0325f7c_story.html
[3] Declan Walsh, “Pakistani Leader Moves Quickly to Form Government,” The New York Times, May 13, 2013. Available at http://www.nytimes.com/2013/05/14/world/asia/pakistan-election-developments.html?hp&_r=0
Sebastian Abbott and Rebecca Santana, “Pakistanis defy violence in historic election,,” Yahoo! News, May 11, 2013. Available at http://news.yahoo.com/pakistanis-defy-violence-historic-election-190537376.html
[4] M. Ilyas Khan, “After the joy of victory, the hard work begins for Nawaz Sharif,” BBC News, May 12, 2013. Available at http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-22502275
Richard Leiby, “Pakista'ns Nawaz Sharif locks down victory,” The Washington Post, May 12, 2013. Available at http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/asia_pacific/pakistans-nawaz-sharif-locks-down-victory/2013/05/12/15f84ba2-bb0a-11e2-b537-ab47f0325f7c_story.html
Nasir Jamal, “PTI ready for role as opposition party,” Dawn, May 11, 2013. Available at http://dawn.com/2013/05/12/pti-ready-for-role-as-opposition-party/
Ali Usman and Owais Jafri, “Conceding defeat: Imran says PTI will sit in opposition,” The Express Tribune, May 13, 2013. Available at http://tribune.com.pk/story/548534/conceding-defeat-imran-says-pti-will-sit-in-opposition/
[5] M. Ilyas Khan, “After the joy of victory, the hard work begins for Nawaz Sharif,” BBC News, May 12, 2013. Available at http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-22502275
[6] Annabel Symington, “Baluch Nationalists Gain in Pakistan Vote,” The Wall Street Journal, May 12, 2013. Available at http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887324031404578478862872378942.html
[7] “Pakistan vote: Nawaz Sharif in talks on new government,” BBC News, May 12, 2013. Available at http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-22501802
“Imran Khan alleges rigging in elections,” Dawn, May 12, 2013. Available at http://dawn.com/2013/05/12/pti-chief-alleges-rigging/
Ali Usman and Owais Jafri, “Conceding defeat: Imran says PTI will sit in opposition,” The Express Tribune, May 13, 2013. Available at http://tribune.com.pk/story/548534/conceding-defeat-imran-says-pti-will-sit-in-opposition/
Ali Ousat, “Post-poll protest: PTI supporters take to the streets,” The Express Tribune, May 12, 2013. Available at http://tribune.com.pk/story/548291/post-election-protest-pti-supporters-take-to-the-streets/
 “Detach Karachi if establishment can't accept MQM's mandate, says Altaf,” Dawn, May 12, 2013. Available at http://dawn.com/2013/05/12/detach-karachi-if-establishment-cant-accept-mqms-mandate-says-altaf/
[8] “Landmark Pakistan election marred by Karachi unrest,” BBC News, May 11, 2013. Available at http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-22495034
[9] “Pakistan vote: Nawaz Sharif in talks on new government,” BBC News, May 12, 2013. Available at http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-22501802
[10]  Munir Ahmed and Atif Raza, “Pakistanis go to polls as 24 killed in attacks,” Yahoo! News, May 11, 2013. Available at http://news.yahoo.com/pakistanis-polls-24-killed-attacks-162145651.html
Sebastian Abbott and Rebecca Santana, “Pakistanis defy violence in historic election,,” Yahoo! News, May 11, 2013. Available at http://news.yahoo.com/pakistanis-defy-violence-historic-election-190537376.html
“Landmark Pakistan election marred by Karachi unrest,” BBC News, May 11, 2013. Available at http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-22495034
[11] “Two cops killed in Badaber attacks,” The News, May 13, 2013. Available at http://www.thenews.com.pk/Todays-News-2-177045-Two-cops-killed-in-Badaber-attacks
[12] “Unexpected peace in FATA,” The Express Tribune, May 12, 2013. Available at http://tribune.com.pk/story/547856/unexpected-peace-in-fata/
[13] David Jackson, “Obama praises Pakistan elections,” USA Today, May 12, 2013. Available at http://www.usatoday.com/story/theoval/2013/05/12/obama-pakistan-elections-statement/2153509/
[14] “What Nawaz Sharif's win means for Pakistan's neighbors,” BBC News, May 12, 2013. Available at http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-22501128
 “Prospective Pakistani PM wants 'good relations' with US, calls drones challenge to sovereignty,” The Washington Post, May 13, 2013. Available at http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/asia_pacific/strong-election-victory-could-make-it-easier-for-sharif-to-tackle-pakistans-problems/2013/05/12/e71e9134-bb80-11e2-b537-ab47f0325f7c_story.html
[15] “Quetta suicide blast: Death toll reaches 6,” The Express Tribune, May 13, 2013. Available at http://tribune.com.pk/story/548591/quetta-suicide-blast-death-toll-reaches-6/
Syed Ali Shah, “Six killed in suicide attack on convoy of IG Balochistan,” Dawn, May 12, 2013. Available at http://dawn.com/2013/05/12/sucide-attack-near-home-of-ig-balochistan/
[16] “India cosying up to Pakistan,” Dawn, May 12, 2013. Available at http://dawn.com/2013/05/12/manmohan-singh-invites-nawaz-sharif-to-visit-india/
Aditi Phadnis, “Nawaz victory is good for Pak-India ties: Indian FM,” The Express Tribune, May 12, 2013. Available at http://tribune.com.pk/story/548226/nawaz-victory-is-good-for-pak-india-ties-indian-fm/
[17] Gardiner Harris, “Pakistan Vote Inspires Measured Optimism in India,” The New York Times, May 13, 2013. Available at http://www.nytimes.com/2013/05/14/world/asia/pakistan-vote-inspires-measured-optimism-in-india.html
[18] “Karzai calls for new govt to back peace talks,” Dawn, May 12, 2013. Available at http://dawn.com/2013/05/12/karzai-calls-for-new-govt-to-back-peace-talks-2/
 “Singh, Karzai congratulate Nawaz on winning elections,” Dawn, May 12, 2013. Available at http://dawn.com/2013/05/12/singh-karzai-congratulate-nawaz-on-winning-elections/
[19] Stefan Wygstyl, “Pakistan market soars on Sharif win,” The Financial Times, May 13, 2013. Available at http://blogs.ft.com/beyond-brics/2013/05/13/pakistan-market-soars-on-sharif-win/#axzz2TBXrEXr9
[20] Rick Gladstone, “On Eve of Pivotal Election, Pakistan Orders Times Reporter to Leave,” The New York Times, May 10, 2013. Available at http://www.nytimes.com/2013/05/11/world/asia/pakistan-orders-new-york-times-reporter-declan-walsh-to-leave.html?partner=rss&emc=rss&_r=0
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