Pakistan Security Brief

Imran Khan gives his last speech from his hospital bed; Report: coalition government likely given close polling between PML-N and PTI; PPP chairman addresses last rally via video link; Mainstream parties agreeing to block women from voting in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa; Two MQM candidates withdraw their candidacies in favor of the PTI; Baloch politicians will be running after boycotting last elections; Baloch National Front calls for strike; Caretaker prime minister issued a contempt notice; Internal TTP letter reveals plans for Election Day violence; Five killed in Miran Shah bombs; Security personnel killed during attack on convoy carrying election papers; IED targeting PPP injures five people in Quetta; Militants blow up Balochistan polling stations; Five injured in Balochistan bomb attack on independent candidate; Blast at JUI-F rally kills one; President Zardari condemns Gilani kidnapping; Army will deploy troops at most sensitive polling stations; Five killed in attack on police van; Militant attack on check post kills three.

Domestic Politics

• A new report from the Washington Post looks at likely future prime minister Nawaz Sharif of the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz and how his previous stints as prime minister in the 1990s prepare him for the challenges ahead. Known as “power-obsessed” and “arrogant” in the past, his fall from power has reportedly made him more careful and more likely to preserve good relations with the U.S. and the military while taking on Pakistan's economic woes.[1]

• After boycotting the last election in 2008, Baloch politicians will be running on Saturday, despite the continuation of separatist movements attempting to derail elections altogether, according to the Wall Street Journal.[2]

• Imran Khan's fast rise to power and his party's polling just behind the leading PML-N point to a likely coalition government, in which the balance of power is held by Khan, according to Reuters. Nawaz Sharif, leader of the PML-N, warns that trying to balance a coalition government would lead to “paralyzing” decision-making because the ruling party will need to hold a strong mandate in order to tackle Pakistan's current problems.[3]

• Giving a nod to each region and major city with a statement about its particular difficulties, Imran Khan on Thursday night made his final appeal to voters via video link from his hospital bed, urging them to vote for change and a new Pakistan.[4]

• Caretaker prime minister Mir Hazar Khan Khoso, along with two other caretaker officials, were issued on Wednesday contempt notices for violating its judgement and transferring and posting twenty government officials.[5]

• Chairman of the Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP) Bilawal Bhutto addressed the PPP's last rally via video link from Dubai. Former Prime Minister Raja Pervez Ashraf was slated to speak to the 6,000 people assembled, but did not come due to security concerns. Bhutto discussed the party's sacrifices and accomplishments, and accused former military dictator Ziaul Haq of conspiring to bring the party down.[6]

• Several mainstream parties, including the PPP, Awami National Party (ANP), Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam-Fazl (JUI-F), PML-N, and Jamaat-e-Islami (JI) reportedly came to an agreement blocking women from voting in Lower Dir and other regions in Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa. In response, a minister from Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa said that she would make sure the government would be vigilant and focused on making sure polling stations are a safe environment for women to cast their ballots.[7]

• The Baloch National Front called for a strike on Friday in Balochistan. Supporters are blocking roads and all shops and businesses are closed.[8]

• Muttahida Qaumi Movement (MQM) candidate Prince Abdul Baqi Baloch on Thursday withdraw his candidacy for NA-260 Quetta in favor of Pakistan Tehreek-i-Insaf (PTI) candidate Karim Dad Sumalani.[9]

• In district PK-46, MQM candidate Qaidar Tanooli withdrew on Thursday in favor of PTI candidate Sajjad Akbar Khan.[10]

Election Violence

• Five people were killed and at least 13 wounded on Friday in Miram Shah, North Waziristan when two bombs targeted election offices an hour apart. It is unclear which party was targeted, as several have offices in the vicinity of the explosions.[11]

• A security personnel was killed when gunmen attacked a convoy carrying election papers in Mastung, Balochistan on Friday. Reinforcements were sent in as firing continued afterwards. Several more security personnel were wounded in the exchange.[12]

• The Frontier Corps reportedly foiled several plots for election violence by recovering explosives from the Saranan refugee camp in Pishin, Balochistan on Friday.[13]

• An IED attack on an office of the Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP) in Quetta on Friday injured five people. The targeted candidate, Sardar Umar Gorgage, was not among the injured.[14]

• Militants blew up three polling stations in Dera Bugti, Balochistan on Friday and fired rockets at two more.[15]

• The office of Balochistan National Party Mengal (BNP-M) was targeted with a petrol bomb on Friday.[16]

• Five people were injured on Friday in Dera Allahyar town of Balochistan when a bomb exploded on the house of independent candidate Naeem Khan Khoso.[17]

• A blast at a JUI-F rally killed local leader Maulvi Muhammad Azeem on Thursday. Six others were injured.[18]

• A letter from the chief of the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) to spokesman Ehsanullah Ehsan written on May 1 outlined plans for attacks on Election Day. Leader Hakimullah Mehsud wrote that he would be in charge of attacks in Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan, while Ehsan would cover Sindh and Punjab. Mehsud also gave Ehsan a list of attacks, modus operandi and targets, as well as a list of suicide bombers to employ in the attacks.[19]

• On Thursday, President Asif Ali Zardari condemned the kidnapping of Ali Haidar Gilani, the son of a former PPP prime minister, as a “most reprehensible act” and called on government agencies to find the criminals and recover him.[20]

• On Thursday, militants fired a rocket at the residence of Mir Israrullah Zehri, chief of the Balochistan National Party-Awami (BNP-A). No casualties were reported.[21]

• In a last-minute change of plans at the request of the Election Commission of Pakistan (ECP), troops will be deployed at 14,000 polling stations categorized as “most sensitive”.[22]

U.S.-Pakistan Relations

• A report in The Express Tribune discusses the effect of upcoming elections on Pakistan's relationship with the U.S. While likely winner Nawaz Sharif has campaigned as being in favor of negotiations with the Taliban, an idea the U.S. does not support, he is seen as a “pragmatist” who knows a good rapport with the U.S. is necessary to secure an IMF loan. However, an outcome resulting in a coalition government that might include figures more unpalatable to the U.S. could cause tension in the relationship.[23]

Militancy

• A policeman was among five killed when an IED detonated in Mansehra district on Thursday. A police van was reportedly the target.[24]

• A militant attack on a check post in central Kurram on Friday killed three security personnel and wounded at least four. Nine militants were killed in retaliation.[25]

Indo-Pak Relations

• In response to the death of prisoner Sanaullah Haq, inmates at a high security prison in Jammu protested, brawled with Indian inmates, and began a hunger strike.[26]