Congo War Security Review

Data Cutoff: May 5, 2025, at 1 P.M. EST

Follow CTP on X, LinkedIn, and BlueSky for daily updates.

Read CTP’s latest analysis on peace talks between the DRC, M23, and Rwanda and Uganda’s role in the DRC in the latest Africa File here. To receive the Africa File and Congo War Security Review via email, please subscribe here.

Key Takeaway: The DRC and Rwanda submitted separate draft peace agreements to the United States. The DRC and M23 met for another round of Qatari-mediated negotiations. M23 captured several villages on Lake Edward in North Kivu. M23 appointed new officials for its parallel administration and imposed several new taxes on locals since March. Former Nigerian head of state and peace mediator Olusegun Obasanjo met with several key political actors in the DRC to discuss an inter-Congolese dialogue.

Northern Axis: Lubero-Butembo-Beni-Bunia

M23 captured several villages on Lake Edward in North Kivu. M23 militants reportedly crossed Lake Edward on boat and came by land from two villages on the southern edge of Lake Edward and attacked Congolese army (FARDC) positions in Lunyasenge and another village on April 28.[1] M23 captured Lunyasenge village on May 2 after another clash with FARDC and pro-government Wazalendo militias that inflicted heavy casualties on both sides.[2] Lunyasenge is 30 miles west of the Lake Edward coastline and roughly 20 miles south of Lubero town.[3] The FARDC denounced the attack as an “intentional and flagrant violation” of the Qatari-brokered preliminary truce and threatened to retaliate on May 2.[4] The Congolese media outlet Actualite.cd reported that FARDC, on May 3, reinforced its positions in Kyavinyonge—a gateway town four hours by boat from M23’s position on Lake Edward that leads to Butembo city and Kasindi town on the DRC-Uganda border.[5] Congolese journalist Yassin Kombi reported on May 4 that M23 advanced an unknown distance from Lunyasenge toward Kyavinyongo and captured at least three villages on Lake Edward.[6]

Southern Axis: Bukavu-Uvira-Baraka-Kalemie

Wazalendo fighters attacked M23 near Kamanyola on the border with Burundi, the DRC, and Rwanda. Local sources reported on social media on May 5 that Wazalendo fighters attacked M23 near Katogota—about 2 miles south of Kamanyola on the RN5—and in an unspecified location to the west of Kamanyola on May 5.[7] Independent Congolese journalist Byobe Malenga reported on social media on May 5 that Wazalendos may attempt to retake Kamanyola.[8]

M23 reportedly clashed with Wazalendo fighters in two villages near Katana in northern South Kivu. Congolese journalists on social media reported on May 5 that M23 clashed with Wazalendo fighters in two villages near Katana on the RN2.[9] CTP is unable to verify the location of the two villages.

Northwest Axis: Masisi-Walikale-Lubutu-Kisangani

Nothing significant to report.

Southwest Axis: Bukavu-Kamituga-Shabunda-Kindu

Nothing significant to report.

Major Political Developments

The DRC and Rwanda submitted separate draft peace agreements to the United States. US President Donald Trump’s senior advisor for Africa, Massad Boulos, said on social media on May 5 that the United States received draft peace proposals from the two sides.[10] US Secretary of State Marco Rubio and foreign ministers from the DRC and Rwanda will reportedly meet in Washington in late May to finalize the agreement.[11]

French media reported that separate bilateral economic agreements between the United States and the DRC and Rwanda will focus on US investment in the upstream and midstream aspects of each country’s critical mineral supply chains. The French state media outlet Radio France Internationale (RFI) reported on May 3 that the bilateral economic agreements with the United States will be anchored in US investments in the DRC mining sector and in Rwanda’s mineral processing and refining capabilities.[12] The outlet said that the DRC will ship minerals to Rwanda, where they will be processed and refined for export to the United States.[13] RFI reported that Congolese mining companies will also be involved in refining.[14] RFI said that the various agreements are in the early stage, however, and currently “far from being finalized.”[15] Boulous told Reuters on May 1 that the United States requires that the DRC and Rwanda finalize the details of bilateral economic agreements with the United States before signing the broader peace deal.[16] DRC President Félix Tshisekedi pushed back on recent domestic criticism directed toward the deal in a speech on May 5 and said that he would never “sell off the wealth of the DRC.”[17]

The DRC and M23 met for another round of Qatari-mediated negotiations. Congolese media delegations from both sides traveled to Doha, the Qatari capital, last weekend and began another round of negotiations on May 4.[18] M23 reportedly reshuffled its negotiating team and put its executive secretary, Benjamin Bonimpa, in charge.[19] The Congolese news outlet Radio Okapi reported that the discussions have not made progress and are still in the preliminary phase.[20]

The Rwandan foreign minister confirmed previous reporting that Rwanda is in early-stage talks with the United States over a migrant deal. Rwandan Foreign Minister Olivier Nduhungirehe said on May 4 that Rwanda is in ongoing talks with the United States to accept deported migrants from the United States.[21] Nduhungirehe said that the talks were “still in the early stages.”[22] The Washington Post cited a Rwandan official on April 30 who said the two countries have been discussing the arrangement since late January.[23] The Washington Post cited a former US official who speculated that Rwanda views the deal as an opportunity to reset relations with the United States within the context of a broader peace deal after the United States sanctioned Rwandan and M23 officials in late February.[24]

M23 appointed new officials for its parallel administration. The Congolese news outlet Kivu Morning Post reported on May 5 that M23-appointed governor of North Kivu, Musanga Erasto, appointed at least eight people to his cabinet to lead M23’s governance efforts in several sectors.[25]

M23 imposed several new taxes on locals since March.[26]  Reuters reported on May 3 that M23 now charges artisanal miners a 15 percent tax on coltan production, which would generate roughly $375,000 to $400,000 in monthly revenue.[27] A pro-M23 investigative outlet had claimed in early March that M23 had not levied taxes on coltan miners and was not involved “in any aspect of the coltan mining business.”[28] Reuters reported that M23 has also taxed gold and tin production.[29] Reuters reported that M23 has imposed several taxes and local levies on commercial activity that has affected small businesses, local traders, and relief aid agencies.[30] Reuters reported that residents in M23-controlled areas have referred to M23’s confiscatory practices as “the Nangaa tax” after the head of Alliance Fleuve Congo, Corneille Nangaa.[31]

Former Nigerian head of state and peace mediator Olusegun Obasanjo met with several key political actors in the DRC to discuss an inter-Congolese dialogue. Obasanjo is one of the African Union-designated mediators under the authority of Togolese President Faure Gnassingbé tasked with revamping peace efforts between the DRC, M23, and Rwanda. The French magazine Jeune Afrique reported on May 3 that Obasanjo has met discreetly with several political power players in the DRC in recent days and “outlined the contours” of an inter-Congolese dialogue.[32] Obasanjo reportedly met with former DRC President Joseph Kabila in Harare, Zimbabwe, on May 2.[33] Jeune Afrique reported that Obasanjo met with Tshisekedi in Kinshasa, the Congolese capital, on May 3, and asked Tshisekedi to initiate an inter-Congolese dialogue “very quickly.”[34] Jeune Afrique reported that Obasanjo’s internal dialogue would take inspiration from the Sun City dialogue from 2002 and would see the respective capitals of Ghana, Ethiopia, South Africa, or Togo as potential host locations.[35] Jeune Afrique said that the end goal of Obasanjo’s initiative is to establish a transitional government in the DRC.[36]