Africa File

Kabila’s Return to the DRC

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Summary

Former Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) President Joseph Kabila has reentered Congolese politics to capitalize on the eastern DRC crisis and regain power by positioning himself as the leader of a broad opposition bloc that includes Rwandan-backed M23 rebels. Kabila’s reemergence risks convoluting the domestic peace process, which is necessary for long-term peace and stable economic investment in the DRC.

Key Development

• Kabila has reentered Congolese politics amid the eastern DRC crisis after a multi-year hiatus. Kabila returned to the DRC in late May through M23-controlled Goma for the first time in over a year and gave his first public address since he left office in 2019.

Kabila's Objective

• Kabila likely seeks to capitalize on M23’s advantageous position to strengthen his own political influence and lead a unified opposition bloc—which includes M23—against DRC President Félix Tshisekedi.
• Kabila likely aims to use his position to regain power in some form through a national dialogue, which would work toward establishing a transitional government in the DRC.
• Kabila may have hastened his return to the DRC after the Congolese government began to retaliate against his networks in early 2025.

Implications

• Expanded Conflict Unlikely: Kabila’s relationship with M23 is transactional and opportunistic, which makes him unlikely to use M23 to seize power militarily.
• Strengthened M23 Leverage: M23 gains legitimacy from Kabila’s support, as Kabila’s backing undermines the DRC government’s narrative that M23 is a foreign Rwandan problem.
• Convoluted Domestic Peace Talks: Kabila is one of many actors whom multilateral peace processes will need to consider. The DRC government’s actions against Kabila were reportedly a “source of tension” in Qatari-mediated DRC-M23 talks in late April.