Assessment as of January 4: 3:00pm ET

Click here to see ISW’s interactive map of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. This map is updated daily alongside the static maps present in this report.

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Click here to access ISW’s archive of interactive time-lapse maps of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. These maps complement the static control-of-terrain map that ISW produces daily by showing a dynamic frontline. ISW will update this time-lapse map archive monthly.

For more information on ISW's map methodology, please view our statement here.

Note: The data cut-off for this product was 11am ET on January 4. ISW will cover subsequent reports in the January 5 Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment.

Russian officials continue to respond to the US military operation in Venezuela, but the response from senior Kremlin decisionmakers remains relatively muted. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov and Belarusian Foreign Minister Mikhail Ryzhenkov discussed the US operation in Venezuela during a phone call on January 3 and issued a joint, boilerplate condemnation of US actions and called for the United States to return Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro and his wife to Venezuela.[i] Russian Security Council Chairperson Dmitry Medvedev heavily criticized the US military operation in a comment to Kremlin newswire TASS, accusing US President Donald Trump of violating international laws and expressing Russia's support for Maduro.[ii] Medvedev also used the US operation to seize Maduro in order to threaten German Chancellor Friedrich Merz and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky.[iii] Russian State Duma deputies also criticized the US operation, claiming that the United States rejects the sovereignty of states in the Western Hemisphere and aims to establish control over Venezuelan oil reserves.[iv] The Kremlin's response to the US operation in Venezuela has been boilerplate thus far.[v] The Kremlin will likely have to balance its responses between maintaining its credibility as a partner to other states with its continued efforts to cater to the Trump administration.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky appointed Ukrainian State Border Guard Service First Deputy Head Major General Valeriy Vavrynyuk as acting head of the State Border Guard Service on January 4.[vi]

Key Takeaways:

• Russian officials continue to respond to the US military operation in Venezuela, but the response from senior Kremlin decisionmakers remains relatively muted.
• Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky appointed Ukrainian State Border Guard Service First Deputy Head Major General Valeriy Vavrynyuk as acting head of the State Border Guard Service on January 4.
• Ukrainian forces advanced near Pokrovsk. Russian forces recently advanced in the Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka tactical area.

We do not report in detail on Russian war crimes because these activities are well-covered in Western media and do not directly affect the military operations we are assessing and forecasting. We will continue to evaluate and report on the effects of these criminal activities on the Ukrainian military and the Ukrainian population and specifically on combat in Ukrainian urban areas. We utterly condemn Russian violations of the laws of armed conflict and the Geneva Conventions and crimes against humanity even though we do not describe them in these reports.  

• Ukrainian Operations in the Russian Federation
• Russian Supporting Effort – Northern Axis
• Russian Main Effort – Eastern Ukraine (comprised of three subordinate main efforts)
• Russian Subordinate Main Effort #1 – Push Ukrainian forces back from the international border with Belgorod Oblast and approach to within tube artillery range of Kharkiv City
• Russian Subordinate Main Effort #2 – Capture the remainder of Luhansk Oblast and push westward into eastern Kharkiv Oblast and encircle northern Donetsk Oblast
• Russian Subordinate Main Effort #3 – Capture the entirety of Donetsk Oblast, the claimed territory of Russia’s proxies in Donbas, and possibly advance into Dnipropetrovsk Oblast
• Russian Supporting Effort – Southern Axis
• Russian Air, Missile, and Drone Campaign
• Significant Activity in Belarus

Ukrainian Operations in the Russian Federation

Ukrainian forces continued their sabotage campaign against Russian military infrastructure in the Russian rear on January 4. Ukrainian Main Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) reported on January 4 that an explosive device detonated on December 26 at the entrance of the Russian 47th Missile Brigade (8th Combined Arms Army [CAA], Southern Military District [SMD]) in Korenovsk, Krasnodar Krai.[vii] The GUR reported that the explosion damaged a KamAz military vehicle carrying Russian military personnel, causing an unspecified number of casualties.

Russian Supporting Effort – Northern Axis (Russian objective: Create defensible buffer zones in northern Ukraine along the international border)

Russian forces continued offensive operations in northern Sumy Oblast on January 4 but did not advance.

Russian forces attacked in Kursk and Sumy oblasts, including north of Sumy City near Oleksiivka, Varachyne, and Novomykolaivka and southeast of Sumy City near Hrabovske, on January 3 and 4.[viii]

Ukrainian Joint Forces Task Force Spokesperson Colonel Viktor Trehubov reported on January 4 that Russian forces in Sumy Oblast are resuming combat operations and are trying to probe the border area with small group infiltration tactics.[ix] Trehubov reported that Russian forces are attempting to hold onto Hrabovske using remotely-laid mines to prevent future Ukrainian counterattacks.[x] Trehubov noted that the Russian offensive against Hrabovske was unique as Russian forces attacked with a large group of servicemembers, rather than multiple small infiltration groups. Trehubov stated that Russian forces are experiencing logistical difficulties and are using drones to resupply frontline positions. 

Order of Battle: Drone operators of the Russian 34th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade (49th Combined Arms Army [CAA], Southern Military District [SMD]) are reportedly striking Ukrainian positions in Ryasne (southeast of Sumy City).[xi] First-person view (FPV) drone operators of the Rubikon Center for Advanced Unmanned Technologies are reportedly striking Ukrainian positions in the Sumy direction.[xii]

Russian Main Effort – Eastern Ukraine

Russian Subordinate Main Effort #1 – Kharkiv Oblast (Russian objective: Push Ukrainian forces back from the international border with Belgorod Oblast and approach to within tube artillery range of Kharkiv City)

Russian forces continued offensive operations in northern Kharkiv Oblast on January 4 but did not advance.

Russian forces attacked northeast of Kharkiv City near Vovchansk, Vovchanski Khutory, Starytsya, Prylipka, Lyman, and toward Izbytske on January 3 and 4.[xiii] A Russian milblogger claimed that Ukrainian forces counterattacked near Vovchanski Khutory.[xiv]

Ukrainian Joint Forces Task Force Spokesperson Colonel Viktor Trehubov reported on January 4 that Russian forces resumed active combat operations in Kharkiv Oblast following a tactical pause.[xv] Trehubov reported that Russian forces are attempting to bypass Vovchansk to take up positions in Vilcha and reach Vovchanski Khutory.[xvi] Trehubov noted that current Russian offensives in northern Kharkiv Oblast are comprised of the constant accumulation of small fireteams that probe Ukrainian defensive lines, compared to the large-scale offensives that Russian forces conducted in 2023 and 2024.

Order of Battle: First-person view (FPV) drone operators of the Russian 245th Motorized Rifle Regiment (47th Tank Division, 1st Guards Tank Army [GTA], Moscow Military District [MMD]) and of the Chechen Akhmat Spetsnaz Vakha Battalion are reportedly striking Ukrainian positions near Martynivka (northwest of Kharkiv City).[xvii] FPV drone operators of unspecified Chechen Akhmat Spetsnaz units, of the 552nd Separate Anti-Tank Battalion, of the 347th Motorized Rifle Regiment (47th Tank Division), and 1472nd Motorized Rifle Regiment (68th Army Corps [AC], Eastern Military District [EMD]) are reportedly striking Ukrainian positions in Kharkiv Oblast.[xviii]

Russian forces continued offensive operations northeast of Velykyi Burluk near Khatnie and Milove on January 3 and 4 but did not advance.[xix]

Russian Subordinate Main Effort #2 – Luhansk Oblast (Russian objective: Capture the remainder of Luhansk Oblast and push westward into eastern Kharkiv Oblast and northern Donetsk Oblast)

Russian forces continued offensive operations in the Kupyansk direction on January 4 but did not make confirmed advances.

Unconfirmed claims: The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) claimed that Russian forces seized Podoly (east of Kupyansk).[xx]

Russian forces attacked toward Kupyansk itself; north of Kupyansk near Kutkivka; northeast of Kupyansk near Synkivka and Fyholivka; east of Kupyansk near Petropavlivka and Kucherivka; and southeast of Kupyansk near Kurylivka, Stepova Novoselivka, and Hlushkivka on January 3 and 4.[xxi]

Ukrainian Joint Forces Task Force Spokesperson Colonel Viktor Trehubov reported on January 4 that there are fewer than 60 to 70 Russian servicemembers remaining in Kupyansk.[xxii] Trehubov added that Russian forces are unable to infiltrate Kupyansk from the north and are attempting to push Ukrainian forces from positions on the left (east) bank of the Oskil River.[xxiii]

A Russian milblogger claimed that the situation for Russian forces in Kupyansk remains “difficult” and that weather conditions are allowing both Russian and Ukrainian forces to intensify drone operations.[xxiv]

Order of Battle: Drone operators of the Russian 27th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade (1st Guards Tank Army [GTA], Moscow Military District [MMD]) and self-propelled artillery elements of the 82nd Self-Propelled Artillery Regiment (68th Motorized Rifle Division, 6th Combined Arms Army [CAA], Leningrad Military District [LMD]) are reportedly striking Ukrainian forces in Kupyanskyi Raion.[xxv] Elements of the 352nd Motorized Rifle Regiment (11th Army Corps [AC], LMD) reportedly continue to operate in the Kupyansk direction.[xxvi] Elements of the Russian 79th Motorized Rifle Regiment (18th Motorized Rifle Division, 11th AC) are reportedly operating near Dvorichanske (northeast of Kupyansk).[xxvii]

Russian forces continued offensive operations northeast of Borova near Nova Kruhlyakivka and Bohuslavka and southeast of Borova near Olhivka on January 3 and 4 but did not advance.[xxviii]

Russian forces continued offensive operations in the Slovyansk-Lyman direction on January 4 but did not advance.

Russian forces attacked northwest of Lyman near Novoselivka and Drobysheve and toward Oleksandrivka; north of Lyman near Stavky; northeast of Lyman near Kolodyazi and Myrne; east of Lyman near Torske and Zarichne on January 3 and 4.[xxix]

Trehubov reported on January 4 that Russian forces are attempting to bypass Ukrainian positions near Lyman while trying to infiltrate directly into the town.[xxx] Trehubov noted that there are many contested “gray zones” within and around Lyman which complicate Ukrainian logistics.

Russian Subordinate Main Effort #3 – Donetsk Oblast (Russian objective: Capture the entirety of Donetsk Oblast, the claimed territory of Russia’s proxies in Donbas, and advance into Dnipropetrovsk Oblast)

Russian forces continued offensive operations in the Siversk direction on January 4 but did not make confirmed advances.

Unconfirmed claims: Russian milbloggers claimed on January 4 that Russian forces advanced west and southwest of Svyato-Pokrovske (south of Siversk).[xxxi]

Russian forces attacked near Siversk itself; northwest of Siversk near Dronivka, Ozerne, Yampil, and Zakitne; and southwest of Siversk near Nykyforivka, Riznykivka, Vasyukivka, Bondarne, and Pazeno on January 3 and 4.[xxxii]

Russian forces recently advanced in the Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka tactical area.

Assessed Russian advances: Geolocated footage published on January 4 indicates that Russian forces recently advanced along the H-20 Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka highway northeast of Yablunivka (southwest of Kostyantynivka).[xxxiii]

Refinement of area under Russian claims: Geolocated footage published on January 4 shows Ukrainian forces operating south of Kostyantynivka, an area where Russian sources previously claimed that Russian forces maintained a presence.[xxxiv]

Russian forces attacked near and within Kostyantynivka itself; north of Kostyantynivka near Virolyubivka; northeast of Kostyantynivka near Minkivka; east of Kostyantynivka near Oleksandro-Shultyne and Stupochky; southeast of Kostyantynivka near Pleshchiivka, Kleban-Byk, Shcherbynivka, and Ivanopillya; south of Kostyantynivka toward Berestok; southwest of Kostyantynivka near Yablunivka and toward Stepanivka; south of Druzhkivka near Rusyn Yar; and southwest of Druzhkivka near Sofiivka.[xxxv]

The Kramatorsk City Military Administration reported on January 3 that Russian forces struck Kramatorsk with Molniya-2 drones, damaging residential infrastructure and injuring a civilian.[xxxvi]

Order of Battle: Elements of the Russian 72nd Motorized Rifle Brigade (3rd Army Corps [AC], under operational control of the Southern Grouping of Forces) are striking Ukrainian positions in eastern Kostyantynivka.[xxxvii] Elements of the 4th Motorized Rifle Brigade (3rd Combined Arms Army [CAA], formerly 2nd Luhansk People's [LNR] Republic AC, Southern Military District [SMD]) are striking Ukrainian vehicles in southern Kostyantynivka.[xxxviii] Elements of the Chechen 78th Sever-Akhmat Motorized Rifle Regiment (42nd Motorized Rifle Division, 58th CAA, SMD) and the 1194th Motorized Rifle Regiment (4th Motorized Rifle Brigade) are striking Ukrainian positions south of Kostyantynivka.[xxxix] First-person view (FPV) drone operators of the 58th Separate Spetsnaz Battalion (unofficially designated the Okhotnik [Hunter] Spetsnaz Detachment) (51st CAA, formerly 1st Donetsk People's Republic [DNR] AC, SMD) and of the 238th Artillery Brigade (8th CAA, SMD) are reportedly operating in the Kostyantynivka direction.[xl]

Russian forces continued offensive operations in the Dobropillya direction on January 4 but did not advance.

Russian forces attacked east of Dobropillya near Shakhove, Kucheriv Yar, and Zapovidne on January 3 and 4.[xli]

Order of Battle: Elements of the Russian 61st Separate Naval Infantry Brigade (Northern Fleet) reportedly continue to operate near Shakhove.[xlii]

Ukrainian forces recently advanced in the Pokrovsk direction.

Assessed Ukrainian advances: Geolocated footage published on December 28, 2025, and January 4, 2026, indicates that Ukrainian forces recently advanced in central Rodynske (north of Pokrovsk) and marginally advanced in southern Hryshyne (northwest of Pokrovsk).[xliii] ISW assesses that Ukrainian forces did not advance in southern Hryshyne in the past 24 hours.

Unconfirmed claims: A Russian milblogger claimed that elements of the Russian 27th Motorized Rifle Division (2nd CAA, Central Military District [CMD]) advanced north of Pokrovsk.[xliv]

Russian forces attacked near and within Pokrovsk itself; north of Pokrovsk near Rodynske and Bilytske; northeast of Pokrovsk near Zatyshok; east of Pokrovsk near Myrnohrad; and southwest of Pokrovsk near Kotlyne, Udachne, and Molodetske; and west of Pokrovsk toward Serhiivka on January 3 and 4.[xlv] A Russian milblogger claimed that Ukrainian forces counterattacked in Pokrovsk.[xlvi]

Order of Battle: Elements of the Russian 5th Motorized Rifle Brigade (51st CAA, SMD) reportedly continue to operate in Myrnohrad.[xlvii] Drone operators of the Maksim Krivonos Battalion (Russian Volunteer Corps) are reportedly striking Ukrainian forces near Pokrovsk.[xlviii]

Russian forces continued offensive operations near Novopavlivka itself and south of Novopavlivka near Filiya on January 3 and 4 but did not advance.[xlix]

Russian forces continued offensive operations in the Oleksandrivka direction on January 4 but did not advance.

Russian forces attacked northeast of Oleksandrivka near Andriivka-Klevtsove and Yalta; east of Oleksandrivka near Oleksandrohrad; and southeast of Oleksandrivka near Vyshneve, Oleksiivka, and Vorone and toward Sosnivka on January 3 and 4.[l]

A Ukrainian servicemember operating in the Oleksandrivka direction reported on January 4 that Russian forces are attempting to use snow to camouflage their positions.[li] The servicemember reported that Russian forces are engaging in a "zombie" tactic, walking in groups of five to six with electronic warfare and anti-drone guns in hopes that two to three servicemembers reach Ukrainian positions. The servicemember noted that Russian forces are constantly attacking and have sufficient reserves.

Russian Supporting Effort – Southern Axis (Russian objective: Maintain frontline positions, secure rear areas against Ukrainian strikes, and advance within tube artillery range of Zaporizhzhia City)

Russian forces continued offensive operations in the Hulyaipole direction on January 4 but did not advance.

Russian forces attacked near Hulyaipole itself; north of Hulyaipole near Dobropillya, Varvarivka, and Zelene; northeast of Hulyaipole near Rybne and Zlahoda; south of Hulyaipole near Dorozhyankya; and west of Dobropillya toward Zaliznychne and Svyatopetrivka on January 3 and 4.[lii] A Russian milblogger claimed that Ukrainian forces counterattacked near Hulyaipole.[liii]

Order of Battle: Drone operators of the Russian 35th Radiation, Chemical, and Biological Protection Regiment (35th Combined Arms Army [CAA], Eastern Military District [EMD]) and 38th Motorized Rifle Brigade (35th CAA) are reportedly intercepting Ukrainian drones in Zaporizhia Oblast.[liv] Elements of the 11th Air Force and Air Defense Army (Russian Aerospace Forces [VKS] and EMD) reportedly continue to strike Ukrainian positions in Zaliznychne.[lv] Drone operators of the 14th Spetsnaz Brigade (Russian General Staff's Main Directorate [GRU]) are reportedly striking Ukrainian vehicles near Verkhnya Tersa (northwest of Hulyaipole).[lvi]

Russian forces continued offensive operations in western Zaporizhia Oblast on January 4 but did not make confirmed advances.

Unconfirmed claims: Chechen Republic Head Ramzan Kadyrov claimed that elements of the Russian Chechen 270th Akhmat-Kavkaz Motorized Rifle Regiment (42nd Motorized Rifle Division, 58th CAA, Southern Military District [SMD]) cleared Bilohirya (southeast of Orikhiv).[lvii]

Russian forces attacked southeast of Orikhiv near Bilohirya and Mala Tokmachka; west of Orikhiv near Stepove and Shcherbaky; and northwest of Orikhiv toward Novoandriivka, Pavlivka, and Novoyakolivka on January 3 and 4.[lviii]

Order of Battle: Elements of the Russian Chechen Vostok-Akhmat Battalion are reportedly operating in the Orikhiv direction.[lix] Drone and air defense operators and other elements of the Nemets group of the 3rd Assault Company of the 291st Motorized Rifle Regiment (42nd Motorized Rifle Division), of the Russian 108th Airborne (VDV) Regiment (7th VDV Division), and of the 104th VDV Division are reportedly operating in the Zaporizhia direction.[lx] Elements of the 247th VDV Regiment (7th VDV Division) are reportedly operating near Stepnohirsk.[lxi]

Russian forces continued limited ground attacks in the Kherson direction on January 4 but did not advance.

Russian forces attacked in the Kherson direction, including east of Kherson City toward the Antonivskyi Bridge, on January 3 and 4.[lxii]

Order of Battle: Fiber-optic first-person view (FPV) drone operators of the Russian 215th Separate Reconnaissance Battalion of the 98th VDV Division are reportedly surveilling Ukrainian vehicles in Kherson Oblast.[lxiii]

Russian Air, Missile, and Drone Campaign (Russian Objective: Target Ukrainian military and civilian infrastructure in the rear and on the frontline)

Russian forces conducted a series of drone strikes against Ukraine on the night of January 3 to 4. The Ukrainian Air Force reported that Russian forces launched 52 Shahed-type, Gerbera-type, and other drones — of which about 40 were Shahed-type drones — from the directions of Kursk, Oryol, and Bryansk cities and occupied Donetsk Oblast.[lxiv] The Ukrainian Air Force reported that Ukrainian forces downed 39 drones, that 13 drones struck 9 locations, and that drone debris fell on one location. Ukrainian officials reported that Russian forces struck residential and civilian infrastructure in Kharkiv and Sumy Oblasts.[lxv]

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky reported on January 4 that Russian forces launched 1,070 guided aerial bombs, almost 1,000 strike drones, and six missiles against Ukraine during the week of December 28, 2025, to January 4, 2026.[lxvi]

Significant activity in Belarus (Russian efforts to increase its military presence in Belarus and further integrate Belarus into Russian-favorable frameworks)

Nothing significant to report.

Note: ISW does not receive any classified material from any source, uses only publicly available information, and draws extensively on Russian, Ukrainian, and Western reporting and social media as well as commercially available satellite imagery and other geospatial data as the basis for these reports. References to all sources used are provided in the endnotes of each update.