Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, December 16, 2025

Assessment as of: 8:45pm ET

Click here to see ISW’s interactive map of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. This map is updated daily alongside the static maps present in this report.

Click here to see ISW’s 3D control of terrain topographic map of Ukraine. Use of a computer (not a mobile device) is strongly recommended for using this data-heavy tool.

Click here to access ISW’s archive of interactive time-lapse maps of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. These maps complement the static control-of-terrain map that ISW produces daily by showing a dynamic frontline. ISW will update this time-lapse map archive monthly.

For more information on ISW's map methodology, please view our statement here.

Note: The data cut-off for this product was 1:30pm ET on December 16. ISW will cover subsequent reports in the December 17 Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment.

The Council of the European Union confirmed that European countries and the United States will provide "robust" security guarantees to Ukraine as part of the peace deal to end Russia's war in Ukraine.[1]  The Council of the European Union issued a joint statement on December 15 affirming that the United States and European leaders are committed to working together to provide “robust security guarantees” and economic recovery measures for Ukraine in the context of the peace deal. The Council agreed to provide support for the Ukrainian military in peace time; a European-led multinational force composed of forces from the Coalition of the Willing; a US-led ceasefire monitoring and verification mechanism; and a legally binding commitment to take military, diplomatic, and economic measures in the event of Russia’s reinvasion. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky reported on December 16 that US and Ukrainian officials discussed legally-binding security guarantees during the talks.[2] Zelensky noted that Ukrainian and US officials will meet in Miami, Florida, to continue discussions about security guarantees, and a US official noted that US and Ukrainian working groups will likely meet over the weekend (December 20 and 21) "somewhere" in the United States, possibly Miami.[3]

 The Kremlin explicitly rejected US and European offers to provide Ukraine with "NATO-like" security guarantees as part of a peace deal and continued to signal its unwillingness to compromise on Russia's territorial claims to Ukraine's sovereign territory. Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov stated in an English language TV interview with ABC News on December 15 that Russia "definitely will not at any moment subscribe to, agree to, or even be content with" any NATO troops in Ukraine, even if these forces are part of a security guarantee or are members of the Coalition of the Willing.[4] Ryabkov also reiterated that Russia would not compromise "in any form" on the five Ukrainian regions that Russia illegally annexed — which includes the entirety of Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhia, and Kherson oblasts and Crimea. Ryabkov notably stated that Russia has "five [regions] altogether," effectively reiterating the Kremlin's demand that Ukraine give up unoccupied parts of Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhia, and Kherson oblasts to Russia, and therefore signaling that Russia remains unlikely to agree to any ceasefire that would freeze the current frontline. Ryabkov reiterated Russia's theory of victory — which claims that Russia will inevitably win by outlasting Ukrainian resilience and Western support — by stating that the end of Russia's war in Ukraine depends on when Ukrainian supporters "recognize the inevitable outcome of [Russian] success." Ryabkov also stated that Russia's whole "purpose" of war in Ukraine is to have Ukrainians find out that they belong in Russia, effectively restating the Kremlin's long-term goal of establishing control over Ukraine's government and its people, not just its land.[5] Kremlin Spokesperson Dmitry Peskov similarly reiterated on December 16 that Russia wants to "end this war" but seeks to achieve its goals, which ISW assesses include decapitating and replacing the Ukrainian government, destroying the Ukrainian military, and undermining Western unity.[6] Peskov also rejected the Ukrainian-proposed and US-supported idea of a Christmas truce.[7] The Kremlin has been effectively rejecting key points of various peace deal proposals, including the original US-proposed 28-point peace deal, such as reliable security guarantees for Ukraine or territorial swaps.[8]

Russia launched an information campaign to frame the European Union and individual European countries as an enemy of the Russian people, comparable to Nazi Germany, in an effort to further militarize Russian society. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov claimed in an interview with Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting on December 15 that Europe is waging a war “under a Nazi flag” with Russia through European support for Ukraine.[9] Lavrov claimed that European leadership in Belgium, Germany, the United Kingdom, France, and the Baltic states is reviving “the theory and practice of Nazism.” Lavrov also claimed that Germany is involved in a “resurgence of militarism” and connected modern Finland to Adolf Hitler and the Siege of Leningrad — likely referring to historically and culturally significant events that invoke historical grievances amongst Russians. Lavrov also compared modern European leadership to historical figures such as Adolf Hitler and Napoleon Bonaparte that represent an existential threat to Russia. Lavrov’s false claims that different European leaders are practicing a nebulously defined “Nazism” are distinct from Russia’s false claims that Ukraine has neo-Nazi leadership, which pertains to Russia’s false claims that Ukraine is engaged in a genocidal campaign against Russian-speaking populations living in the country. Lavrov is leveraging the term “Nazi” to identify modern European countries and their current leadership as enemies of the Russian people and to recall Soviet narratives of patriotism to prepare the Russian population to accept greater levels of sacrifices in the pursuit of the ideological defense of the Russian state for an indeterminate amount of time.

The Kremlin is trying to downplay ongoing Ukrainian counterattacks in Kupyansk as Russian ultranationalist milbloggers continue to acknowledge the severity of the situation for the Russian forces. Ukrainian military sources reported on December 16 that around 200 Russian servicemen remain in Kupyansk and that Russian forces have limited logistics due to successful Ukrainian shaping and interdiction operations.[10] Russian state media has recently vastly platformed statements from Russian military officials and propagandists that downplay the situation in Kupyansk, likely in an effort to uphold a false Russian narrative that Russian forces are imminently collapsing Ukraine's defense — a narrative aimed at influencing Ukraine and the West to make significant concessions to Russia. Russian state sources, including the Western Grouping of Forces (GoF) and an unnamed source from the Russian Joint GoF, claimed that Russian forces retained control over Kupyansk and accused Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky of falsifying the December 11 video that he took in Kupyansk.[11] Some Russian milbloggers also amplified allegedly geolocated footage that shows two servicemen of the 121st Motorized Rifle Regiment (68th Motorized Rifle Division, 6th Combined Arms Army [CAA], Leningrad Military District [LMD]) reportedly walking in southern Kupyansk, using the video to claim that Russian forces still control the settlement.[12] Other Russian milbloggers, however, continued to criticize Russian state media for failing to adequately cover Ukrainian counterattacks in Kupyansk, with one milblogger even pointing out that Russian state media is relying on the Western and Joint GoFs to conceal the battlefield situation in Kupyansk.[13]

The Russian Black Sea Fleet denied the loss of a Russian submarine as the result of a Ukrainian unmanned underwater vehicle (UUV) strike against the Novorossiysk Naval Base on the night of December 14 to 15 Russian Black Sea Fleet Spokesperson Captain 1st Rank Alexey Rulev claimed on December 15 that Ukrainian reports of the sinking of a Russian submarine in Novorossiysk are false and that no vessels suffered damages in the strike, and Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD)-run TV network Zvezda published footage on December 16 allegedly showing the undamaged submarine.[14] An open-source intelligence (OSINT) analyst assessed that the Ukrainian UUV detonated 20 meters from the Russian Project 636 Varshavyanka-class (NATO Kilo-class) submarine and noted that the Zvezda-published footage does not show the stern of the submarine, which was closest to the explosion site.[15] Another OSINT analyst noted that satellite imagery taken on December 16 shows that the submarine has not moved since the strike, potentially indicating damage to the submarine.[16] Ukrainian Navy Spokesperson Captain Third Rank Dmytro Pletenchuk reported that the Black Sea Fleet now only fields two submarines capable of carrying Kalibr cruise missiles following the strike.[17] Russian milbloggers noted that Ukraine's ability to conduct a UUV strike inside the ostensibly secure Novorossiysk Naval Base is a serious security lapse, and reported that Ukrainian forces apparently hacked a surveillance camera at the Novorossiysk Naval Base headquarters to provide footage of the strike.[18] ISW cannot assess whether the Ukrainian UUV strike damaged the submarine from the available open-source information at this time.

Key Takeaways:

• The Council of the European Union confirmed that European countries and the United States will provide "robust" security guarantees to Ukraine as part of the peace deal to end Russia's war in Ukraine.
• The Kremlin explicitly rejected US and European offers to provide Ukraine with "NATO-like" security guarantees as part of a peace deal and continued to signal its unwillingness to compromise on Russia's territorial claims to Ukraine's sovereign territory.
• Russia launched an information campaign to frame the European Union and individual European countries as an enemy of the Russian people comparable to Nazi Germany in an effort to further militarize Russian society.
• The Kremlin is trying to downplay ongoing Ukrainian counterattacks in Kupyansk as Russian ultranationalist milbloggers continue to acknowledge the severity of the situation for the Russian forces.
• Ukrainian forces recently advanced near Pokrovsk and marginally near Kupyansk. Russian forces recently advanced in the Dobropillya and Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka tactical areas.

We do not report in detail on Russian war crimes because these activities are well-covered in Western media and do not directly affect the military operations we are assessing and forecasting. We will continue to evaluate and report on the effects of these criminal activities on the Ukrainian military and the Ukrainian population and specifically on combat in Ukrainian urban areas. We utterly condemn Russian violations of the laws of armed conflict and the Geneva Conventions and crimes against humanity even though we do not describe them in these reports.    

• Ukrainian Operations in the Russian Federation
• Russian Supporting Effort – Northern Axis
• Russian Main Effort – Eastern Ukraine (comprised of three subordinate main efforts)
• Russian Subordinate Main Effort #1 – Push Ukrainian forces back from the international border with Belgorod Oblast and approach to within tube artillery range of Kharkiv City
• Russian Subordinate Main Effort #2 – Capture the remainder of Luhansk Oblast and push westward into eastern Kharkiv Oblast and encircle northern Donetsk Oblast
• Russian Subordinate Main Effort #3 – Capture the entirety of Donetsk Oblast, the claimed territory of Russia’s proxies in Donbas, and possibly advance into Dnipropetrovsk Oblast
• Russian Supporting Effort – Southern Axis
• Russian Air, Missile, and Drone Campaign
• Significant Activity in Belarus

Ukrainian Operations in the Russian Federation

Ukrainian forces continued to strike Russian industrial and military infrastructure. Ukrainian Unmanned Systems Forces (USF) Commander Major Robert “Magyar” Brovdi, citing updated satellite imagery on December 15, reported that Ukrainian forces struck the Kamensky chemical plant in Kamensk-Shakhtinsky, Rostov Oblast on the night of December 14 to 15.[19] Brovdi reported that the Kamensky plant produces rocket fuel; components for solid-fuel rocket engines; and warheads for Iskander-M and Kinzhal ballistic missiles and Uragan, Smerch, and Tornado-S multiple launch rocket systems (MLRS). Rostov Oblast Governor Yury Slyusar claimed on December 15 that Ukrainian forces launched a massive drone attack against Rostov Oblast overnight but did not report strikes on the Kamensky Plant.[20] A Russian insider source reportedly affiliated with Russian security services claimed on December 16 that Ukrainian forces struck a column of Russian S-400 air defense systems with six drones near Raevka, Belgorod Oblast on the evening of December 14.[21] The insider source claimed that Ukrainian strikes destroyed and damaged two S-400 launchers and destroyed four air defense missiles.

Russian Supporting Effort – Northern Axis (Russian objective: Create defensible buffer zones in northern Ukraine along the international border)

Russian forces continued offensive operations in northern Sumy Oblast on December 16 but did not advance.

Russian forces attacked in unspecified areas of Kursk and Sumy oblasts on December 15 and 16.[22]

A Russian milblogger reportedly affiliated with the Russian Northern Grouping of Forces claimed on December 16 that the Russian military command submitted false reports of Russian advances in Bezsalivka (northwest of Sumy City), Varachyne (north of Sumy City), and Yunakivka (northeast of Sumy City).[23] The milblogger claimed that a Russian assault group from the 83rd Separate Airborne (VDV) Brigade recently attempted to advance toward Varachyne but that a Ukrainian heavy bomber drone strike repelled the assault before Russian forces could engage the Ukrainian forces with small arms.[24]

Order of Battle: Multiple launch rocket system (MLRS) elements of the Russian 34th Motorized Rifle Brigade (49th CAA, Southern Military District [SMD]) are reportedly striking Ukrainian positions in the Sumy direction.[25]

Russian Main Effort – Eastern Ukraine

Russian Subordinate Main Effort #1 – Kharkiv Oblast (Russian objective: Push Ukrainian forces back from the international border with Belgorod Oblast and approach to within tube artillery range of Kharkiv City)

Russian forces continued offensive operations in northern Kharkiv Oblast on December 16 but did not advance.

Russian forces attacked northeast of Kharkiv City near Prylipka, Synelnykove, Vilcha, Vovchanski Khutory, and Starytsia and toward Izbytske on December 15 and 16.[26] A Russian milblogger claimed that Ukrainian forces counterattacked near Lyman (northeast of Kharkiv City).[27]

The deputy commander of the Ukrainian 16th Army Corps (AC) reported on December 16 that Ukrainian forces repelled a Russian motorized assault on all-terrain vehicles (ATVs) near Vovchanski Khutory on December 15.[28] The commander added that Russian forces then conducted a multi-wave motorcycle assault on the night of December 15 to 16  from the Vovchansk Oil Extraction Plant toward Vovchanski Khutory, but that Ukrainian engineering obstacles disrupted the assault and allowed Ukrainian drone and artillery strikes to eliminate Russian forces.

Order of Battle: Elements of the Russian 136th Motorized Rifle Brigade (58th Combined Arms Army [CAA], Southern Military District SMD) are reportedly striking Ukrainian positions in the Kharkiv direction.[29] Elements of the 128th Motorized Rifle Brigade (44th Army Corps [AC], Leningrad Military District [LMD]) reportedly continue to operate near Vovchansk.[30]

[31]

Russian forces continued offensive operations in the Velykyi Burluk direction on December 16 but did not advance.

Russian forces attacked east of Velykyi Burluk toward Obukhivka and southeast of Velykyi Burluk toward Kolodyazne on December 15 and 16.[32] A Russian milblogger claimed that Ukrainian forces counterattacked near Milove and Khatnie (both northeast of Velykyi Burluk).[33]

Russian Subordinate Main Effort #2 – Luhansk Oblast (Russian objective: Capture the remainder of Luhansk Oblast and push westward into eastern Kharkiv Oblast and northern Donetsk Oblast)

Ukrainian forces recently maintained positions or advanced in the Kupyansk direction.

Refinements of area under Russian claims: Geolocated footage published December 15 indicates that Ukrainian forces maintain positions or recently advanced in northern Petropavlivka (east of Kupyansk), an area where Russian sources previously claimed that Russian forces maintained a presence.[34]

Geolocated footage published December 16 indicates that Ukrainian forces recently advanced in central Kupyansk — an area where Russian forces previously conducted infiltration missions.[35]

Russian forces attacked near and within Kupyansk itself; north of Kupyansk near  Holubivka; east of Kupyansk toward Kucherivka and Petropavlivka; southeast of Kupyansk toward Pishchane and Kurylivka; and south of Kupyansk near Kupyansk-Vuzlovyi on December 15 and 16.[36][37]milbloggers claimed that Ukrainian forces counterattacked in southern Kupyansk.[38]

Order of Battle: Elements of the Russian 68th Motorized Rifle Division (6th Combined Arms Army [CAA], Leningrad Military District [LMD]), including its 121st and 122nd motorized rifle regiments, reportedly continue to operate in Kupyansk.[39]

Russian forces continued offensive operations in the Borova direction on December 16 but did not make confirmed advances.

Unconfirmed claims: The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) claimed on December 16 that Russian forces seized Novoplatonivka (north of Borova).[40] A Russian milblogger also claimed that Russian forces advanced north of Nova Kruhlyakivka (northeast of Borova).[41]

Russian forces attacked north of Borova toward Novoplatonivka and southeast of Borova toward Stepove on December 16.[42]

Russian forces continued offensive operations in the Slovyansk-Lyman direction on December 16 but did not advance.

Russian forces attacked near Lyman itself; northwest of Lyman near Serednie and Novoselivka and toward Korovii Yar and Drobysheve; and east of Lyman near Zarichne on December 15 and 16.[43]

The commander of a Ukrainian brigade operating in the Slovyansk–Lyman direction reported on December 16 that Russian forces continue attempts to infiltrate the outskirts of Lyman, exploiting poor weather conditions that degrade Ukrainian drone operations.[44] The brigade commander reported that Russian forces struggle to communicate with African mercenaries from unspecified countries due to the language barrier and employ them in attacks designed to reveal Ukrainian firing positions as a result. A non-commissioned officer (NCO) of a Ukrainian brigade operating in the Lyman direction reported that Russian forces continue to leverage their numerical superiority to maintain intense ground assaults, but that Ukrainian drone operators continue to operate despite poor weather.[45] The NCO reported that Ukrainian forces engaged Russian forces attempting to infiltrate Lyman on December 15 with small arms

Russian Subordinate Main Effort #3 – Donetsk Oblast (Russian objective: Capture the entirety of Donetsk Oblast, the claimed territory of Russia’s proxies in Donbas, and advance into Dnipropetrovsk Oblast)

Russian forces continued offensive operations in the Siversk direction on December 16 but did not advance.

Russian forces attacked near and within Siversk itself; northwest of Siversk near Dronivka; northeast of Siversk near Serebryanka; and south of Siversk near Pazeno, Vasyukivka, and Svyato-Pokrovske on December 15 and 16.[46]

The commander of a Ukrainian drone unit operating in the Siversk direction reported on December 16 that Russian forces have recently intensified attacks in the Siversk direction.[47] The commander reported that Russian forces previously attacked two to three times per day but that Russian forces have recently increased their attack tempo within Siversk itself to roughly seven times per day. The commander reported that Russian forces continue to use infiltration tactics and conduct costly infantry assaults with the support of intense artillery, drone, and air strikes. The commander noted that the intensity of Russian fires challenges Ukrainian forces’ ability to retain elevated drone operator positions.

Order of Battle: Elements of the Russian 7th Motorized Rifle Brigade (3rd Combined Arms Army [CAA], formerly 2nd Luhansk People's Republic Army Corps [LNR AC], Southern Military District [SMD]) reportedly continue to operate in Siversk.[48]

Russian forces recently advanced in the Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka tactical area.

Assessed Russian advances: Geolocated footage published on December 16 indicates that Russian forces recently advanced in eastern Kostyantynivka, an area in which ISW previously assessed that Russian forces conducted infiltration missions that did not change control of terrain or the forward edge of battle (FEBA).[49]  ISW assesses that the increased frequency of infiltration missions in the area indicates that Russian forces have changed the FEBA in this area.

Refinement of areas under Russian claims: Geolocated footage published on December 13 shows Ukrainian forces operating in western Pleshchiivka (southeast of Kostyantynivka), an area where Russian sources previously claimed that Russian forces maintained positions.[50]

Russian forces attacked near and within Kostyantynivka; northeast of Kostyantynivka toward Bondarne; east of Kostyantynivka near Oleksandro-Shultyne; southeast of Kostyantynivka near Pleshchiivka, Kleban-Byk, and Ivanopillya; south of Druzhkivka near Rusyn Yar; and southwest of Druzhkivka near Sofiivka and toward Novopavlivka on December 15 and 16.[51]

The chief sergeant of a Ukrainian brigade operating in the Kostyantynivka direction reported on December 16 that Russian forces continue to use small group infiltration tactics in daily attacks and occasionally use motorcycles or other vehicles.[52] The chief sergeant stated that Russian forces continue to exploit foggy weather that hinders Ukrainian drone operations to advance. The commander of a Ukrainian drone battalion operating in the Kramatorsk (northwest of Kostyantynivka) direction reported that Russian forces continue to employ small group infiltration tactics in the Kramatorsk direction.[53] The commander stated that Russian forces are increasingly using unmanned ground vehicles (UGVs) on the battlefield.

Order of Battle: Drone operators of the Russian 4th Motorized Rifle Brigade (3rd CAA) are striking Ukrainian forces in western Kostyantynivka.[54] Drone operators of the 4th Battalion of the 103rd Motorized Rifle Regiment (150th Motorized Rifle Division, 8th CAA, SMD) are striking Ukrainian forces in western Pleshchiivka.[55] Drone operators of the Russian Smuglyanka Detachment and Rubikon Center for Advanced Unmanned Technologies are reportedly coordinating FAB unguided glide bomb strikes against Druzhkivka.[56]

Russian forces recently advanced in the Dobropillya direction.

Assessed Russian advances: Geolocated footage published on December 16 indicates that Russian forces recently advanced south of Kucheriv Yar (northeast of Dobropillya) during a reinforced platoon-sized mechanized assault.[57]

Russian forces attacked east of Dobropillya toward Toretske on December 15 and 16.[58]

Order of Battle: Elements of the Russian 33rd Motorized Rifle Regiment (20th Motorized Rifle Division, 8th CAA) reportedly continue to operate in the Dobropillya salient.[59]

Ukrainian forces recently advanced in the Pokrovsk direction.

Assessed Ukrainian advances: Geolocated footage published on December 15 indicates that Ukrainian forces recently advanced north of Udachne (southwest of Pokrovsk).[60] Geolocated footage published on December 16 indicates that Ukrainian forces recently marginally advanced in eastern Myrnohrad in an area where Russian forces previously conducted infiltration missions.[61]

Unconfirmed claims: A Russian milblogger claimed that Russian forces advanced in southern Myrnohrad and north of Svitle (east of Pokrovsk).[62]

Russian forces attacked near and within Pokrovsk; northwest of Pokrovsk near Hryshyne; north of Pokrovsk near Rodynske and toward Bilytske; east of Pokrovsk near and within Myrnohrad and Rivne; southwest of Pokrovsk near Kotlyne, Molodetske, Udachne, and Zvirove; and west of Pokrovsk toward Serhiivka on December 15 and 16.[63]

The Ukrainian 7th Rapid Reaction Corps of the Air Assault Forces reported on December 16 that the Russian military command recently committed three regiments of the Russian 76th Airborne (VDV) Division from its operational reserve to assaults toward Hryshyne, resulting in a 30 percent increase in Russian casualties to 446 servicemembers during the week of December 16 from the previous week.[64] The corps reported that Russian forces continue infiltration attempts in northern and eastern Myrnohrad and near Svitle and Rivne. An officer of a Ukrainian brigade operating near Pokrovsk reported that the presence of Russian first-person view (FPV) and sleeper drones along roads has lengthened the Ukrainian approach to the area by four to seven kilometers.[65] The officer noted that Ukrainian interdiction efforts have complicated Russian logistics to a depth of 10 to 15 kilometers behind the frontline, however.  The officer reported that the majority of Russian servicemembers in the brigade's area of responsibility (AoR) have received only three weeks of training, while a minority have served for two to three years.

The Ukrainian Special Operations Forces (SSO) posted footage on December 16 showing Ukrainian SSO FP-2 long-range drone operators striking a Russian troop concentration near Pokrovsk on the night of December 15 to 16.[66]

Order of Battle: Elements of the Russian 5th Motorized Rifle Brigade (51st CAA, formerly 1st Donetsk People's Republic [DNR] AC], SMD) reportedly continue to operate in Myrnohrad.[67] FPV drone operators of the 1st Slovyansk Motorized Rifle Brigade (51st CAA) are reportedly striking Ukrainian vehicles on the outskirts of Myrnohrad.[68] FPV drone operators of the Rubikon Center for Advanced Unmanned Technologies are reportedly striking Ukrainian positions near Rodynske and intercepting Ukrainian drones near Pokrovsk.[69] Sniper elements of the 27th Motorized Rifle Division (2nd CAA, Central Military District [CMD]) and FPV drone and loitering munition operators of the Anti-Tank Artillery Battalion of the 238th Artillery Brigade (8th CAA) are reportedly operating in the Pokrovsk direction.[70]

Russian forces continued offensive operations in the Novopavlivka direction on December 16 but did not advance.

Russian forces attacked near Novopavlivka itself and south of Novopavlivka near Filiya and Yalta on December 15 and 16.[71]

Geolocated footage published on December 16 shows Ukrainian forces repelling an at least platoon-sized Russian mechanized assault south of Novopavlivka.[72] The footage shows at least five damaged or destroyed Russian armored fighting vehicles (AFVs).

Order of Battle: Molniya and FPV drone operators of the Russian 90th Tank Division (41st CAA, CMD) are reportedly striking Ukrainian forces northwest of Novopavlivka.[73]

Russian forces continued offensive operations in the Oleksandrivka direction on December 16 but did not advance.

Russian forces attacked toward Oleksandrivka itself; northeast of Oleksandrivka near Andriivka-Klevtsove, Zelenyi Hai, and Ivanivka; east of Oleksandrivka near Oleksandrohrad; and southeast of Oleksandrivka near Oleksiivka, Sosnivka, Verbove, Sichneve, and Krasnohirske on December 15 and 16.[74]

The Ukrainian Special Operations Forces (SSO) published footage on December 16 showing Ukrainian SSO FP-2 long-range drone operators striking a Russian Uragan multiple launch rocket system (MLRS) hangar and MLRS crew locations in occupied Blahodatne, Donetsk Oblast on the night of December 15 to 16.[75]

Russian Supporting Effort – Southern Axis (Russian objective: Maintain frontline positions, secure rear areas against Ukrainian strikes, and advance within tube artillery range of Zaporizhzhia City)

Russian forces continued offensive operations in the Hulyaipole direction on December 16 but did not make confirmed advances.

Unconfirmed claims: Russian milbloggers claimed that Russian forces advanced in northern, northwestern, and central Hulyaipole, south of Hulyaipole, east of Herasymivka, and west of Pishchane (both northwest of Hulyaipole).[76]

Russian forces attacked near and within Hulyaipole itself; northwest of Hulyaipole near Zarichne, Dobropillya, and Varvarivka and toward Andriivka and Herasymivka; north of Hulyaipole near Solodke, Zlahoda, and Yehorivka; and northeast of Hulyaipole near Pryvilne and Rybne on December 15 and 16.[77]

Order of Battle: Drone operators of the Russian 60th and 57th motorized rifle brigades (both of the 5th Combined Arms Army [CAA], Eastern Military District [EMD]) are striking Ukrainian vehicles in western Hulyaipole.[78] Drone operators of the 37th Motorized Rifle Brigade (36th CAA, EMD) are intercepting Ukrainian drones near Rybne.[79] Drone operators of the 14th Spetsnaz Brigade (Russian General Staff's Main Directorate [GRU]) are reportedly striking Ukrainian vehicles near Hulyaipole.[80]  Elements of the 11th Air Force and Air Defense Army (Russian Aerospace Forces [VKS] and EMD) reportedly continue to strike Ukrainian positions in Hulyaipole.[81]

Russian forces continued offensive operations in western Zaporizhia Oblast on December 16 but did not advance.

Russian forces attacked southeast of Orikhiv near Mala Tokmachka and west of Orikhiv near Novoandriivka, Shcherbaky, Stepove, Stepnohirsk, and Prymorske and toward Lukyanivske and Pavlivka on December 15 and 16.[82]

Order of Battle: Drone operators of the Russian 4th Military Base (58th CAA, Southern Military District [SMD]) are reportedly striking Ukrainian artillery north of Orikhiv.[83] Elements of the Chechen 270th Akhmat-Kavkaz Motorized Rifle Regiment (42nd Motorized Rifle Division, 58th CAA) are reportedly operating near Bilohirya (southeast of Orikhiv).[84] Drone operators of the 247th Airborne (VDV) Regiment (7th VDV Division) are reportedly striking Ukrainian positions in Stepnohirsk.[85] Drone operators and other elements of the 7th VDV Division are reportedly operating in Prymorske.[86] Drone operators of the 108th VDV Regiment (7th VDV Division) are reportedly operating in the Zaporizhia direction.[87]

Russian forces continued limited ground assaults in the Kherson direction on December 16 but did not advance.

Russian forces attacked east of Kherson City near Antonivka on December 15 and 16.[88]

Order of Battle: Zala reconnaissance drone operators of the Russian 98th VDV Division reportedly continue to strike Ukrainian positions on the west (right) bank of the Dnipro River in Kherson Oblast.[89]

Russian Air, Missile, and Drone Campaign (Russian Objective: Target Ukrainian military and civilian infrastructure in the rear and on the frontline)

Russian forces conducted a series of drone strikes against Ukraine on the night of December 15 to 16. The Ukrainian Air Force reported that Russian forces launched 69 Shahed-type, Gerbera-type, and other drones — of which roughly 40 were Shahed-type drones — from the directions of Oryol City; Millerovo, Rostov Oblast; Primorsko-Akhtarsk, Krasnodar Krai; and occupied Hvardiiske, Crimea.[90] The Ukrainian Air Force reported that Ukrainian forces downed 57 drones and that 10 drones struck seven locations. Ukrainian officials reported that Russian forces struck residential, civilian, and energy infrastructure in Zaporizhia, Kharkiv, and Odesa oblasts.[91]

Ukrainian state energy operator Ukrenergo reported that Russian overnight strikes against Ukrainian energy infrastructure on December 16 disrupted power to at least 427,000 customers in Donetsk Oblast and 278,000 customers in Odesa Oblast; caused additional outages in Dnipropetrovsk and Mykolaiv oblasts; and prompted emergency shutdowns in Kharkiv Oblast and continued outage schedules across much of Ukraine.[92] Ukrenergo further reported that most Ukrainian oblasts will introduce hourly civilian outages and industrial power restrictions on December 17 due to damage sustained from Russian strikes.[93]

Significant activity in Belarus (Russian efforts to increase its military presence in Belarus and further integrate Belarus into Russian-favorable frameworks)

The US Treasury Department granted on December 15 limited sanctions relief to three state-owned Belarusian potash (a key ingredient for fertilizer and major Belarusian export) companies after Belarus released 123 political prisoners on December 13.[94] A US official told Reuters on December 15 that the sanctions relief is conditional on Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko's fulfillment of his pledge to cease politically motivated arrests and “sustained improvements“ in Belarus' behavior."[95] ISW continues to assess that the Kremlin has nearly de facto annexed Belarus through the Union State framework.[96]

Belarusian First Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Lukashevich and Russian deputy foreign ministers Andrei Rudenko and Sergey Vershinin discussed on December 15 Belarusian-Russian cooperation in Africa and the Asia-Pacific region.[97]

Note: ISW does not receive any classified material from any source, uses only publicly available information, and draws extensively on Russian, Ukrainian, and Western reporting and social media as well as commercially available satellite imagery and other geospatial data as the basis for these reports. References to all sources used are provided in the endnotes of each update.