Iran Update Evening Special Report, March 12, 2026

Data Cutoff: 03:00 PM ET

The Critical Threats Project (CTP) at the American Enterprise Institute and the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) are publishing two updates daily to provide analysis on the war with Iran. The morning update will focus on US and Israeli strikes on Iran and Iran and the Axis of Resistance’s response to the strikes. The evening update will be more comprehensive, covering events over the past 24-hour period and refining items discussed in the morning update.

Key Takeaways:

• Iranian Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei issued his first statement on March 12 after the Assembly of Experts selected him as the new supreme leader on March 8. Khamenei reaffirmed the regime’s commitment to Iran’s war effort in order to achieve Iran’s long-standing objectives, including the erosion and eventual expulsion of American influence from the Middle East and the destruction of the Israeli state.
• An Iranian-linked hacker group conducted a cyberattack on a US healthcare company on March 11, which is likely part of an Iranian effort to target the US healthcare system in order to impose political pressure on the US administration. Iran has undertaken a similar effort to impose political pressure on the United States by striking oil infrastructure in the region and oil tankers in the Strait of Hormuz.
• The US and Israeli combined force has continued to target Iranian internal security and military sites across Iran. CTP-ISW has observed strikes in ten provinces since 8:00 AM ET on March 12.
• Anti-regime media reported that the Iranian armed forces are facing deepening fractures between the Artesh and the IRGC amid severe supply shortages, citing unspecified informed sources. Some Western media reports have indicated that there are no signs of mass defections within the Iranian armed forces or fractures within the regime yet, however.
• Recent US Central Command (CENTCOM) operations are attempting to limit Iran’s ability to disrupt shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. CENTCOM said on March 12 that it has destroyed over 30 Iranian minelaying ships and that it has targeted naval mine warehouses and manufacturing facilities across Iran.
• Hezbollah appears to be relying more heavily on drones to attack IDF forces and positions. Hezbollah’s reliance on drones is notable given that Hezbollah did not heavily rely on drones during the October 7 War.

Toplines

Iranian Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei issued his first statement on March 12 after the Assembly of Experts selected him as the new supreme leader on March 8.[i] Khamenei reaffirmed the regime’s commitment to Iran’s war effort in order to achieve Iran’s long-standing objectives, including the erosion and eventual expulsion of American influence from the Middle East and the destruction of the Israeli state. A news anchor read Khamenei's statement on state media. Khamenei made the following key points in his statement:

• Reaffirmed Iran’s commitment to disrupt international shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. Khamenei stated that Iran “must continue” to block the Strait of Hormuz. He added that Iran may “[open] additional fronts where the enemy is extremely vulnerable.”[ii] Khamenei did not specify what “fronts” he was referring to. The Houthis have not conducted attacks in response to the combined force’s campaign in Iran or Israeli operations in Lebanon; they have likewise issued no threats or signaled intent to retaliate for US-Israeli strikes in Iran.[iii]
• Reaffirmed Iran’s intent to attack regional countries that host US bases. Khamenei falsely claimed that Iranian strikes in regional countries target only US facilities rather than the host countries themselves.[iv] Iran has struck sites in Middle Eastern countries since the start of the war that are not US bases, including a drone strike on the Hayat Palace Hotel in Bahrain on March 3 and strikes on energy and maritime infrastructure in Oman, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates (UAE).[v] Khamenei stated that Iran will continue to attack regional countries.[vi]
• Reaffirmed Iran’s support for the Axis of Resistance. Khamenei described the resistance movement as “an inseparable part of the Islamic Revolution’s values.”[vii] The “Axis of Resistance” is the unconventional alliance that Iran has cultivated in the Middle East since the Islamic Republic came to power in 1979. Iran provides these groups with varying levels of financial, military, and political support in exchange for influence or control over their actions. Iran and the Axis of Resistance have carried out numerous attacks on US assets across the region. Iranian-backed Iraqi militias and Lebanese Hezbollah have launched attacks on US and Israeli assets, respectively, since the start of the war on February 28.[viii]

Khamenei also emphasized the importance of unity among the Iranian people. He encouraged Iranians to attend Quds Day ceremonies on March 13, likely, in part, to project an image of unity amid the war and concerns about regime stability.[ix] The Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) similarly called on Iranians to attend the Quds Day march.[x]

An Iranian-linked hacker group conducted a cyberattack on a US healthcare company on March 11, which is likely part of an Iranian effort to target the US healthcare system in order to impose political pressure on the US administration.[xi] An Iranian-linked hacker group launched a cyberattack targeting Stryker, disrupting the company’s global network and IT system.[xii] Stryker is a US-based healthcare company that provides health equipment and services to more than 150 million patients.[xiii] Handala claimed responsibility for the Stryker hack.[xiv] Handala is an Iranian-linked hacker group that emerged in 2022 and has claimed several other cyberattacks.[xv] This cyberattack is the first Iranian cyberattack on a US company since the conflict begun on February 28 and represents a threat to US healthcare infrastructure.[xvi]

Iran has undertaken a similar effort to impose political pressure on the United States by striking oil infrastructure in the region and oil tankers in the Strait of Hormuz.[xvii] Iranian officials have stated that Iran will not allow oil to pass through the Strait of Hormuz and warned that oil prices could reach $200 USD per barrel.[xviii] Crude oil prices have increased more than 25 percent since the start of the conflict and rose to $119.48 USD per barrel this week, which is the highest crude oil price in nearly four years.[xix] Several countries, including the UAE, Kuwait, Iraq, and Bahrain, have cut oil output by nearly seven million barrels a day, which in turn will influence the global energy markets because the region is a global exporter of refined oil.[xx] Rising oil prices and threats to healthcare infrastructure could trigger discontent among the US population and disrupt the US economy, which in turn could impose political pressure on the US administration if Iran continues to attack healthcare and energy infrastructure.

US and Israeli Campaign

The combined force continued to target Iranian military sites and degrade Iranian air defenses. Commercially available satellite imagery from March 11 shows that the combined force struck a military garrison and air defense system in Hakimabad, Tehran. The imagery also shows that the combined force struck the IRGC Ground Forces 20th Ramezan Independent Armored Brigade, which is one of the three brigades under the IRGC Ground Forces Sarallah Headquarters.[xxi] An open-source intelligence (OSINT) account on X posted a video on March 12 Showing combined force strikes on the air defense barracks in Garmdareh, Alborz Province.[xxii] The combined force also struck the General Directorate of Intelligence in Qom Province on March 10, according to an Israeli analyst citing satellite imagery from March 12.[xxiii] OSINT accounts on X reported on March 12 that the combined force struck the IRGC Navy Imam Ali Naval Base in Chabahar, Sistan and Baluchistan Province.[xxiv] The combined force previously struck the base on February 28.[xxv]

The combined force struck several internal security institutions. The combined force targeted multiple IRGC Ground Forces units, which are the regime’s last resort for dealing with serious internal security threats.[xxvi] At least two of the strikes targeted IRGC Ground Forces sites in Khuzestan Province in southwestern Iran.[xxvii] Anti-regime media and an OSINT account on X reported on March 12 that the combined force struck the IRGC Ground Forces Karbala Operational Base and 1st Hazrat-e Hojjat Independent Armored Brigade in Ahvaz.[xxviii] This armored brigade deployed to Syria to support the Assad regime during the Syrian Civil War.[xxix] IRGC-affiliated media reported on March 12 that the combined force struck an unspecified site in Behbahan, Khuzestan Province.[xxx] The IRGC Ground Forces 15th Imam Hassan Mojtaba Special Forces Brigade operates out of Behbahan and was likely involved in suppressing protests in Izeh, Khuzestan Province, during the 2022 Mahsa Amini protests.[xxxi] The combined force also targeted security forces in Tehran. An OSINT account on X stated on March 12 that the combined force struck a security checkpoint “packed with IRGC personnel” in southwestern Tehran.[xxxii] Commercially available satellite imagery shows that the combined force struck the Khavar Shahr Military Garrison in Tehran.

The Institute for Science and International Security reported on March 12 that the Israeli strike on the Taleghan 2 site at the Parchin military complex in Tehran Province successfully penetrated the high-explosive testing chamber at the site.[xxxiii] The Institute reported that the bunker buster bombs penetrated the encasing concrete sarcophagus at the suspected high-explosive test chamber hall and entered the interior of the facility. The Institute reported in January 2026 that Iran is encasing a newly-built facility at Taleghan 2 with a concrete “sarcophagus” to harden the facility against potential airstrikes.[xxxiv] CTP-ISW reported out the Israeli strike on Taleghan 2 in its March 12 Morning Update and noted that the regime previously used the facility to test explosives that are needed to detonate a nuclear device before the regime suspended its nuclear weapons program in 2003.[xxxv] The Institute said that the Israeli strikes also damaged a few other support buildings by the main facility.[xxxvi]

Iranian Inter-Regime Dynamics

Anti-regime media reported that the Iranian armed forces are facing deepening fractures between the Artesh and the IRGC amid severe supply shortages, citing unspecified informed sources.[xxxvii] The sources stated that IRGC forces have refused to transport wounded Artesh soldiers to hospitals despite access to medical facilities. IRGC officials have reportedly rejected Artesh requests for additional support because of limited resources. The sources added that the Artesh faces a severe shortage of ammunition and basic supplies such as food and water. The sources stated that even traditionally well-resourced elements of Iran’s military, including the IRGC’s missile units, are facing supply shortages. IRGC leadership has reportedly prioritized the delivery of technical components to keep missile systems operational over sending basic resources or individual equipment to forces. The sources also said that the IRGC attempted to mobilize reserve forces earlier this week, but several individuals did not report to military centers. Some Western media reports have indicated that there are no signs of mass defections within the Iranian armed forces or fractures within the regime yet, however.[xxxviii]

Iranian Response

Iran launched four missile barrages at Israel between 3:00 PM ET on March 11 and 3:00 PM ET on March 12.[xxxix] The Israeli Foreign Ministry reported on March 12 that one Iranian missile impacted in Jerusalem near the Western Wall and al Aqsa Mosque.[xl]

Iran or Iranian-backed Iraqi militias almost certainly conducted several attacks targeting US and European forces in Iraq on March 11 and 12.[xli] British Defense Secretary John Healey confirmed that British forces in Iraq shot down two Iranian drones overnight on March 11 and 12.[xlii] Other unidentified drones hit the coalition base in Erbil, Iraqi Kurdistan, injuring several US soldiers, however.[xliii] British Brigadier Guy Foden told BBC on March 12 that unspecified projectiles struck the coalition base in Erbil and another unspecified base in Baghdad ”a number of times” on March 11.[xliv] US air defense systems belonging to the US Consulate in Erbil shot down two unidentified drones on March 12, according to Iraqi media.[xlv] An OSINT account published a video of smoke rising near the US Consulate.[xlvi] The Italian Defense Ministry also reported that unidentified drones struck Camp Singara in Erbil overnight on March 11 and 12.[xlvii] Camp Singara is a North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) base that operates as part of Operation Inherent Resolve, which is the coalition military operation against ISIS.[xlviii] Both Iran and Iranian-backed Iraqi militias have targeted US forces and bases in Iraq since the conflict began on February 28.[xlix]

The Gulf States have continued to intercept Iranian missile and drone attacks on March 11 and 12. The Kuwaiti Army reported that it intercepted five Iranian drones and four ballistic missiles on March 12.[l] The Kuwaiti Army reported that two Iranian drones and one Iranian ballistic missile fell in open areas.[li] The Saudi Defense Ministry reported that it intercepted over 47 Iranian drones and three ballistic missiles on March 11 and 12.[lii] Saudi air defense systems have intercepted over 151 Iranian drones since the conflict began on February 28.[liii] Fifty-four of the 151 Iranian drones have targeted the Shaybah oil field, which is operated by state-owned Saudi Aramco and crucial to Saudi oil production.[liv] Bahrain reported on March 12 that it has intercepted 186 Iranian drones and 112 Iranian ballistic missiles since February 28.[lv] The UAE reported on March 12 that it has intercepted 1,540 Iranian drones and 278 Iranian ballistic missiles since February 28, which demonstrates that the UAE has borne the brunt of Iranian attacks.[lvi] Iranian drones and missile targeting the UAE have decreased relative to the peak of attacks since March 8, however (see graphic below).

Recent US Central Command (CENTCOM) operations are attempting to limit Iran’s ability to disrupt shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. CENTCOM said on March 12 that it has destroyed over 30 Iranian minelaying ships and that it has targeted naval mine warehouses and manufacturing facilities across Iran.[lvii] CENTCOM previously said on March 10 that it had destroyed 16 Iranian minelayers near the Strait of Hormuz.[lviii] Unspecified US officials told the Wall Street Journal on March 10 that Iran has deployed fewer than 10 naval mines in the Strait so far, which means that Tehran has not yet attempted a large-scale mining campaign.[lix] Iran instead is relying on tactics that will cause less economic damage to Iran, including unmanned surface vessels (USV) and drones, to threaten commercial shipping while avoiding the economic and political consequences of mining the Strait. Iran will therefore likely continue to employ these tactics as long as it is able to do so.[lx]

Suspected Iranian USVs struck two oil tankers conducting a ship-to-ship transfer off the coast of Basra, Iraq, overnight on March 11 and 12, killing at least one crew member on one of the vessels.[lxi] The United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) separately reported on March 12 that an unknown projectile struck the Chinese-state-owned Liberian-flagged SOURCE BLESSING in the Strait of Hormuz, which caused a fire but did not injure the crew.[lxii] The UKMTO reported more than 20 maritime incidents in and around the Strait since March 1 and assessed that likely Iranian attacks do not show a consistent pattern of targeting Western vessels, as exemplified by the strike on a Chinese-owned vessel.[lxiii] This pattern indicates that Iran is pursuing a strategy to broadly disrupt maritime traffic rather than selectively target the shipping of Western nations. Other Iranian-backed groups, like the Houthis, have also had difficulties selectively targeting Western shipping.

Israeli Campaign Against Hezbollah and Hezbollah Response

Hezbollah claimed 36 attacks targeting Israel Defense Forces (IDF) positions and forces in northern Israel and southern Lebanon between 3:00 PM ET on March 11 and 3:00 PM ET on March 12.[lxiv] The majority of Hezbollah’s claimed attacks targeted IDF positions and Israeli towns in northern Israel.[lxv] Hezbollah claimed 14 attacks on IDF bases and 20 attacks on Israeli towns in northern Israel.[lxvi] Hezbollah is likely continuing to attempt to displace northern Israeli residents from their homes by targeting northern Israeli towns in order to place political pressure on the Israeli government to curtail its war effort.

Hezbollah appears to be relying more heavily on drones to attack IDF forces and positions. Hezbollah’s reliance on drones is notable given that Hezbollah did not heavily rely on drones during the October 7 War.[lxvii] Hezbollah claimed that it conducted ten drone attacks on March 11, which is the most Hezbollah-claimed drone attacks since the conflict began on February 28.[lxviii] Hezbollah’s number of claimed drone attacks on March 11 is also a considerable increase compared to Hezbollah’s one to two daily drone attacks since March 8. Hezbollah prioritized domestic drone production and shifted its munition rehabilitation budget to focus on drones in June 2025.[lxix] The IDF also claimed in June 2025 that Hezbollah’s Unit 127, which is the group‘s aerial unit responsible for drone production, has produced thousands of drones.[lxx]  Hezbollah has long assembled the cheap Ayoub and Mersad models within Lebanon using civilian parts ordered online.[lxxi] CTP-ISW previously forecasted in a February 28 report that Hezbollah would likely use low-cost weapons, such as drones, to conduct attacks against Israel.[lxxii]

The IDF has continued to conduct airstrikes targeting Hezbollah infrastructure that is crucial to the group’s ability to operate. The IDF struck a Hezbollah site that the group used to hide millions of dollars in Bashura neighborhood, Beirut, on March 12.[lxxiii] The IDF has also destroyed 30 al Qard al Hassan locations, which is Hezbollah’s main financial arm, since the start of the conflict.[lxxiv] Hezbollah uses funds transferred via al Qard al Hassan to finance its military operations, pay its fighters, and purchase weapons.[lxxv] These strikes may impact Hezbollah’s ability to acquire and store funds, which in turn could affect Hezbollah’s ability to maintain its financial commitments and support base. Hezbollah’s ongoing financial struggles have previously generated unprecedented discontent among its Lebanese Shia support base, which could grow over time if Hezbollah is unable to fulfill these commitments.[lxxvi]

The IDF also confirmed that it killed several Hezbollah officials and affiliates:

• Ali Muslim Tabaja.[lxxvii] Tabaja served as the Imam Hussein Brigade Commander and was one of the prominent leaders executing attacks against Israel. The Imam Hussein Brigade is a military force that the Iranian IRGC Quds Force uses to bolster Iran’s Axis of Resistance and employ forces against Israel. The brigade also serves as a significant military unit for Hezbollah, comprising thousands of fighters, and has launched operations from Lebanon. Tabaja also held several military positions within Hezbollah.
• Jihad al Safira.[lxxviii] Safira served as the Imam Hussein Brigade Deputy Commander.
• Sajjid al Handasa.[lxxix] Handasa served as a drone operative in the Imam Hussein Brigade.
• Abu Ali Rayyan.[lxxx] Rayyan was the Hezbollah Radwan Force Commander in southern Lebanon. The Radwan Force is Hezbollah’s elite special operations unit that Hezbollah, with Iranian support, built to conduct major ground attacks into Israel in the event of war.[lxxxi] The IDF stated that Rayyan directed the Radwan Force’s operations in southern Lebanon and was the central figure responsible for coordinating operations, recruiting fighters, and managing the forces’ supply chain.[lxxxii]
• Abu Dhar Mohammadi.[lxxxiii] Mohammadi was an IRGC commander who served in Hezbollah’s ballistic missile unit in Beirut. The IDF stated that Mohammadi was a central figure in coordinating between Hezbollah and Iran, and in rebuilding Hezbollah’s missile capabilities. Mohammadi helped Hezbollah’s missile unit plan and launch missiles against Israel during the Fall 2024 conflict and the current war.

The IDF has continued to conduct ground operations and deploy forces in southern Lebanon. The IDF reported that IDF forces have conducted nocturnal offensive operations in southern Lebanon during the past week.[lxxxiv] IDF forces raided and destroyed Hezbollah Radwan Force infrastructure in southern Lebanon.[lxxxv] The IDF reported on March 12 that IDF Chief of Staff Lieutenant General Eyal Zamir ordered the reinforcement and deployment of additional IDF forces to the northern front.[lxxxvi] Zamir stated that the IDF will continue to operate ”forcefully” and will bring additional forces and capabilities to the north.[lxxxvii] Israeli media on March 12 that Israeli officials are discussing a ”massive operation” in Lebanon that will begin within a week.[lxxxviii] Israeli political and security officials are scheduled to meet on March 12 to discuss expanding Israeli strikes and ground operations in Lebanon.[lxxxix] A senior Israeli official told Israel media on March 12 that the goal is ”to take control of southern Lebanon and establish more control points.”[xc]

Other Axis Response

The combined force continues to strike Iranian-backed Iraqi militia targets in Iraq to limit the ability of Iranian-backed Iraqi militias to conduct retaliatory attacks against the United States and Israel. The combined force separately struck the Iranian-backed Iraqi militia Harakat Ansar Allah al Awfiya-controlled 19th Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF) Brigade in al Qaim, Anbar Province, and the PMF General Secretariat Special Forces Regiment headquarters in Kirkuk Province on March 11.[xci] Iraqi media reported that the strikes in al Qaim killed 20 PMF fighters and injured dozens of others, and the strike in Kirkuk killed one PMF member.[xcii] The combined force also separately struck a Kataib Hezbollah base in Jurf al Sakhr, Babil Province, and Camp Saqr in Baghdad City, Baghdad Province, on March 12.[xciii] Iranian-backed Iraqi militias affiliated with the PMF have used Camp Saqr to store ammunition.[xciv] The strike on Camp Saqr reportedly killed one PMF member and wounded three others.[xcv] The PMF stated on March 12 that the United States has carried out 32 airstrikes targeting PMF bases in Diyala, Kirkuk, Anbar, Salah al Din, Wasit, and Babil provinces since the beginning of the war, killing 27 PMF members and injuring 50 others.[xcvi]

The Iraqi Ministry of Defense condemned on March 11 repeated attacks targeting two Iraqi air bases in Baghdad and Salah al Din Provinces.[xcvii] A security source told Iraqi media on March 10 that unspecified actors targeted Balad Air Base in Salah al Din Province with a drone.[xcviii] The source added that the drone crashed before reaching the base.[xcix] Unidentified actors previously targeted Imam Ali Airbase in Dhi Qar Province and Balad Air Base on March 4 with “unspecified projectiles.”[c] The Iraqi Joint Operations Command previously reported on February 28 that Iraqi air defenses intercepted nine drones that unspecified actors launched at Iraqi military sites in Dhi Qar and Basra provinces.[ci] No group has claimed responsibility for these attacks at the time of this writing. No group similarly ever claimed responsibility for drone attacks targeting Camp Taji, Baghdad Province, and Imam Ali Air Base, Dhi Qar Province, in late June 2025 that “severely damaged” Iraqi radars at those sites.[cii]

Iranian-backed Iraqi militias continue to conduct and claim attacks targeting US bases in Iraq and the region.  A security source told Iraqi media on March 12 that air defenses at Baghdad International Airport intercepted a drone targeting the Baghdad Diplomatic Support Center.[ciii] Likely Iranian-backed Iraqi militias launched six drones at the Baghdad Diplomatic Support Center on March 11.[civ] The Islamic Resistance in Iraq, which is a coalition of Iranian-backed Iraqi militias, claimed on March 11 that it conducted 13 drone attacks against “enemy” bases in Iraq and the region.[cv] Likely Iranian-backed Iraqi militia front group Saraya Awliya al Dam also claimed on March 11 that it carried out seven attacks against US bases in Iraq and the region in the past 24 hours.[cvi] CTP-ISW continues to assess that Iranian-backed Iraqi militias may be using front groups in an attempt to obfuscate culpability.