Iran Update Morning Special Report, March 12, 2026

Data Cutoff: 08:00 AM ET

The Critical Threats Project (CTP) at the American Enterprise Institute and the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) are publishing two updates daily to provide analysis on the war with Iran. The morning update will focus on US and Israeli strikes on Iran and the Axis of Resistance’s response to the strikes. The evening update will be more comprehensive, covering events over the past 24-hour period and refining items discussed in the morning update.

Key Takeaways:

• The US and Israeli combined force has continued to target Iranian internal security, defense industrial, and military targets across Iran. CTP-ISW has observed strikes in 11 provinces since 3:00 PM ET on March 11.
• Iran is continuing to target commercial vessels in the Persian Gulf and Strait of Hormuz as part of its effort to disrupt maritime traffic and threaten freedom of navigation. Suspected improvised Iranian unmanned surface vessels (USV) hit the US-owned Marshall Islands-flagged SAFESEA VISHNU and the Malta-flagged ZEFYROS off the coast of Basra, Iraq, overnight on March 11 and 12.
• Iran continued to attack the Gulf States and Israel. Iran launched projectiles targeting civilian and oil infrastructure in the UAE, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, and Kuwait.
• Hezbollah has claimed 27 attacks targeting IDF forces and positions in northern Israel since CTP-ISW's last data cutoff at 3:00 PM ET on March 11. Hezbollah’s 27 claimed attacks mark the highest number of attacks claimed by Hezbollah in an 18-hour period that CTP-ISW has observed since the start of the conflict.
• The IDF is preparing to expand its ground activity in southern Lebanon. Israeli Defense Minister Katz and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu instructed the IDF to prepare for an “expansion of IDF activity in Lebanon.”

US and Israeli Campaign

The US and Israeli combined force has continued to target Iranian internal security and military targets. The combined force struck five internal security facilities, including the Law Enforcement Command (LEC) station in Khorramabad, the LEC Station and a Basij base in Sahneh, Kermanshah Province, the Amir al Momenin Basij Resistance Base in Shahriar, Tehran Province, and the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) Imam Sadegh Unit in Bushehr Province.[i] These strikes are notable because the LEC, Basij, and IRGC play key roles in regime repression and internal security operations.[ii] The combined force also struck two military bases, including the Iranian Artesh 92nd Armored Division in Ahvaz, Khuzestan Province, and the 56th Younes Artillery Group ammunition depot in Sarvestan, Fars Province.[iii]

The Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) struck the Taleghan 2 site at the Parchin military complex in Tehran Province on March 12.[iv] The Iranian regime previously used the Taleghan 2 facility to test explosives that are needed to detonate a nuclear device before the regime suspended its nuclear weapons program in 2003.[v] Israel destroyed equipment at the site during an airstrike in October 2024.[vi] Iran began reconstructing and has taken steps to harden the rebuilt structure with concrete and earth coverings, likely to protect it from future airstrikes.[vii]

The combined force struck three defense industrial facilities across Iran. Iran's industrial zones often host companies tied to Iran’s defense industrial base and the Ministry of Defense and Armed Forces Logistics (MODAFL).[viii] The combined force struck Defense Industries Organization facilities in Yazd Province, an IRGC warehouse in the Fath ol Mobin Industrial Zone in Kashan, Esfahan Province, and a missile and drone component production facility in the Parand Industrial Zone in Tehran Province.[ix]

The combined force also struck three airbases, including the Naval Aviation Base in Bandar Abbas, Hormozgan Province, the Artesh Air Force 4th Tactical Air Base (TAB) in Dezful, Khuzestan Province, and the Artesh Air Force 7th TAB in Shiraz, Fars Province.[x] These strikes support the ongoing effort to degrade Iran’s ability to challenge combined force air dominance and launch retaliatory attacks from dispersed airfields. The combined force previously struck the 4th and 7th TAB on March 6.[xi]

Iranian Retaliation

Iran has continued to attack the Gulf States and Israel since CTP-ISW's last data cutoff at 3:00 PM ET on March 11. Iran conducted drone attacks targeting the Address Creek Harbour hotel in Dubai, United Arab Emirates (UAE), and the Kuwait International Airport in Kuwait.[xii] The Kuwaiti Public Authority for Civil Aviation reported that the Iranian drone attack on the Kuwait International Airport caused material damage.[xiii] The Bahraini Interior Ministry reported on March 11 that Iran targeted fuel tankers at an unspecified facility in Muharraq Governorate, Bahrain, which is adjacent to Manama.[xiv] Saudi forces also intercepted six Iranian drones attempting to target the Shaybah Oil Field in Saudi Arabia.[xv] Iran has attempted to target the oil field several times since March 7.[xvi] The Shaybah oil field is crucial to Saudi oil production and is operated by state-owned Saudi Aramco, which is the world’s largest oil company.[xvii]

The IRGC claimed several attacks targeting US and Israeli bases in the region. CTP-ISW has not observed any evidence on impacts on US or Israeli bases at the time of this writing. The IRGC Public Relations Department claimed on March 12 that Iran struck US forces on Sheikh Zayed Road in Dubai, UAE, and at Ahmed al Jaber Airport in Kuwait.[xviii] The UAE successfully intercepted this attack.[xix] The IRGC also claimed that Iran struck the al Dhafra Airbase south of Abu Dhabi, UAE, which hosts a large number of US forces.[xx] Open-source intelligence (OSINT) analysts previously reported damage at the al Dhafra Airbase on March 9 and 10.[xxi] The Iranian Armed Forces reported on March 12 that Iran conducted drone attacks targeting the Israeli Air Force (IAF) Palmachim Airbase and Shin Bet Headquarters near Tel Aviv, and the IAF Ovda Airbase north of Eilat.[xxii] CTP-ISW has not observed any impacts near these sites, which is notable because they are in densely populated areas where locals would presumably film or photograph any impacts or damage. The Shin Bet Headquarters is located in northwestern Tel Aviv, which has over 4 million residents, for example.[xxiii] The lack of evidence of Iranian attacks on US and Israeli bases, especially in populated Israeli cities, indicates that Iran is attempting to make their attacks seem more effective than the attacks are in reality.

Iran is continuing to target commercial vessels in the Persian Gulf and Strait of Hormuz as part of its effort to disrupt maritime traffic and threaten freedom of navigation. Suspected improvised Iranian unmanned surface vessels (USV) hit the US-owned Marshall Islands-flagged SAFESEA VISHNU and the Malta-flagged ZEFYROS off the coast of Basra, Iraq, overnight on March 11 and 12.[xxiv] Western and Iraqi media confirmed on March 12 that the strike killed at least one crew member on one of the vessels.[xxv] The IRGC claimed on March 12 that it hit the vessel after disobeying IRGC Navy orders.[xxvi] The United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) separately reported on March 12 that an unknown projectile struck an unspecified container ship in the Strait of Hormuz.[xxvii] Iran previously attacked three civilian cargo ships in the Strait of Hormuz on March 11.[xxviii]

Israeli Campaign Against Hezbollah and Hezbollah Response

Hezbollah claimed 27 attacks targeting IDF forces and positions in northern Israel between 3:00 PM ET on March 11 and 8:00 AM ET on March 12.[xxix] Hezbollah’s claimed 27 attacks are the highest number of claimed attacks in an 18-hour period that CTP-ISW has observed since the start of the conflict.[xxx] An Israeli journalist reported that Hezbollah launched 200 missiles towards Israel on March 11.[xxxi] Hezbollah claimed that it conducted rocket, missile, and drone attacks targeting 14 IDF bases in northern and central Israel.[xxxii] Hezbollah claimed that it conducted a drone attack targeting the Rafael Advanced Defense Systems’ military industries complex in Acre, northern Israel, which Hezbollah has previously targeted in the Fall 2024 conflict and during this war.[xxxiii] Rafael Advanced Defense Systems is an Israeli state-owned organization that develops weapons and military technology for the IDF.[xxxiv]  Hezbollah claimed it launched a barrage of ”high-quality missiles” targeting the Glilot Base in central Israel, which houses IDF Unit 8200.[xxxv] The Glilot base is reportedly 110 kilometers from the Israel-Lebanon border, which suggests that Hezbollah used medium- or long-range missiles in this attack.[xxxvi] Israeli media reported that Hezbollah has over 1,000 long-range missiles.[xxxvii] Hezbollah also claimed several attacks targeting northern Israeli villages.[xxxviii] CTP-ISW previously assessed that Hezbollah is likely continuing to attempt to displace northern Israeli residents from their homes to place political pressure on the Israeli government to curtail its war effort.[xxxix]

The IDF has continued to conduct airstrikes targeting Hezbollah across Lebanon to degrade Hezbollah’s ability to launch retaliatory attacks against Israel. The IDF struck ten Hezbollah command centers, including Hezbollah’s intelligence headquarters, Radwan Force headquarters, and other unspecified headquarters, in Beirut’s southern suburbs on March 11.[xl] An Israeli journalist reported on March 12 that Israeli airstrikes have killed over 100 Radwan fighters and destroyed 60 Radwan command centers since the war began on February 28.[xli] The IDF also conducted airstrikes targeting Hezbollah fighters, rocket launchers, and unspecified military infrastructure across Lebanon on March 12.[xlii]

The IDF is preparing to expand its ground activity in southern Lebanon. Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz warned the Lebanese government that Israel “will take the territory” and prevent Hezbollah from attacking Israel if the Lebanese government does not do so itself.[xliii] Katz and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu instructed the IDF to prepare for an “expansion of IDF activity in Lebanon.”[xliv] Katz’s statement comes amid ongoing Israeli ground activities in southern Lebanon. The IDF 810th Infantry Brigade (210th Division) is operating at several points in the Mount Hermon area of southern Lebanon.[xlv] The IDF reported that the brigade located Hezbollah-affiliated sites that Hezbollah used as launch platforms and storage facilities for military equipment, such as mortar shells.[xlvi] The IDF also expanded its main evacuation line for southern Lebanese residents to north of the Zahrani River on March 12.[xlvii] The IDF previously called for southern Lebanese residents to move north of the Litani River.[xlviii] The Zahrani River is further north than the Litani River and is located approximately 56 kilometers north of the Israel-Lebanon border.[xlix]