Ethiopia War Security Review, October 9, 2026

Data Cutoff: This review covers the period from October 6 at 9:00 A.M. EST to October 9 at 9:00 A.M. EST.

To receive the Africa File, Ethiopia War Security Review, or Congo War Security Review via email, please subscribe here.

Follow CTP on X, LinkedIn, and BlueSky for daily updates.  

Read CTP’s latest analysis on the war in Ethiopia in the weekly Africa File here.

Key Takeaways:

• Northern Axis. The Critical Threats Project (CTP) partially corroborated reports claiming that Eritrean forces had entered Tigray and advanced south through Adigrat before retreating north under Ethiopian drone pressure, although CTP is unable to fully confirm these claims. Ethiopian federal forces have advanced quickly north of Mekele and reached Adigrat without strong resistance.
• Western Axis. Ethiopian federal forces reportedly captured Shire after the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) retreated from positions along the B30 highway.
• Central Axis. Ethiopian federal forces captured Abiy Addi—a gateway town between TPLF-controlled areas in central Tigray and federal-controlled southern Tigray.
• Regional Activity. Ethiopia and Eritrea have each effectively framed the conflict in northern Ethiopia as a war between them and threat to each of their sovereignty.

Figure 1. ENDF Continues Advances in Tigray

Source: Liam Karr and Michael DeAngelo; Alexander Brown and Ziv Zellars.

Northern Axis: Mekele-Adigrat-Adwa

The Critical Threats Project (CTP) partially corroborated numerous reports claiming that Eritrean forces had entered Tigray and advanced south through Adigrat sometime between October 3 and 7 before retreating north on October 8, although CTP is unable to fully confirm these claims. Several major media outlets, including Agence France-Presse (AFP), BBC, Deutsche Welle, and Reuters, as well as Armed Conflict Location & Event Data (ACLED) reported on October 7 that Eritrean troops were traveling south along the A2 in the vicinity of Adigrat in the direction of the A2 frontlines near Wukro.[1] One local official claimed that Eritrean sources had been present in northern Ethiopia for four days, which would be consistent with reports from various social media sources between October 3 and 5 about Eritrean infiltrations that CTP was unable to corroborate in the October 6 Ethiopia War Security Review.[2] Other local residents and officials claimed to spot Eritrean forces in large trucks in and between Adigrat and Idaga Hamus, which is 12 miles south of Adigrat.[3] Pro-Ethiopian federal government X accounts separately circulated at least two new videos and four pictures on October 7 claiming to show Eritrean forces moving in and between Adigrat and Idaga Hamus.[4] CTP and the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) largely established the veracity of the images but could not could not establish the original date of the media or whether the militants and vehicles in the images are Eritrean military.^[5] CTP-ISW geolocated the media to Idaga Hamus and the road between Adigrat and Idaga Hamus, and CTP-ISW and other open-source analysts determined that the media was from no earlier than 2024, meaning the videos and images are not reused footage from the Tigray War.^[6]  

AFP, ACLED, and Reuters reported on October 8 that Eritrean forces retreated north of Adigrat under heavy Ethiopian drone pressure between October 7 and 8.^[7] Pro-Ethiopian X accounts posted a video on October 7 claiming to show an Eritrean truck that an Ethiopian drone strike had destroyed.^[8] CTP-ISW and other analysts geolocated the truck to the southern outskirts of Adigrat and confirmed the truck was present on satellite imagery facing north, confirming that Ethiopia launched drone strikes in the area targeting vehicles moving north.[9] AFP reported that Eritrean forces had withdrawn to the hillsides around Adigrat, while Reuters cited a diplomatic and a conflict analyst in touch with the warring sides, who both said it was unclear whether Eritrean forces were redeploying within the country or leaving Ethiopia entirely.[10] Major media outlets and ACLED have separately cited mostly similar sources, largely consisting of locals, anonymous Ethiopian officials, and commanders from the pro-federal government Tigrayan Peace Force (TPF), as well as each other’s reporting in their reports on October 7 and 8.[11] CTP assessed in the October 8 Africa File that any recent Eritrean incursions were “likely limited and may have already been abandoned.”[12]

There are other isolated reports that Eritrean forces had infiltrated even further south to Atsbi, roughly 10 miles east of former frontlines on the A2 highway north of Wukro, although CTP has been unable to corroborate these claims.[13] Open-source analyst The Ethiopian Conflict Map denied the reported Eritrean presence in Adigrat on October 7 and said that Eritrean forces had reinforced Tigray Defense Forces (TDF)—the Tigray People’s Liberation Front’s (TPLF) military wing—and allied Afar Revolutionary Democratic Unity Front (ARDUF/Ugugumo) positions in Atsbi after traveling through rebel-controlled territory to the east in northern Afar.[14] The TPF claimed on their Facebook that Eritrean and TPLF forces were traveling toward Atsbi, which is 25 miles southeast of Idaga Hamus via side roads, on October 7.[15]

Ethiopian federal forces have continued to advance north of Mekele and reached Adigrat. The Ethiopian military (Ethiopian National Defense Force, ENDF) and TPF took control of Wukro, which is roughly 31 miles north of Mekele on the A2, on October 7 after temporarily halting its advance outside of the town since October 5.[16] CTP assessed that the pause was to avoid a potential a TPLF counterattack or flanking maneuver, as retreating TDF forces had withdrawn from Wukro to mountainous positions off the A2, including Atsbi and Abreha We Atsbeha, which is five miles west of Wukro via side roads.[17] The ENDF heavily shelled TDF forces in Abreha We Atsbeha from October 4 to 6.[18]

ENDF-TPF forces then quickly advanced at least 30 miles north to the outskirts of Adigrat between October 8 and 9. Federal forces advanced north along the A2 and adjacent side roads, capturing Atsbi, Hawzen, Freweyni, and Idaga Hamus.[19] The TDF reportedly withdrew prior to the ENDF-TDF advance, with open-source analyst The Ethiopia Conflict Map reporting that the TDF forces had already withdrawn from the entire 65-mile stretch of the A2 between Adigrat and Adwa.[20]

Western Axis: Humera-Addi Remets-Shire

The ENDF and TPF reportedly secured Shire after the TDF abandoned its positions on the B30. Pro-TPLF sources said on October 6 that the TDF had repelled an ENDF offensive on Adi Gebru, which is 25 miles south of Shire along the B30, but the TPF claimed to have destroyed enemy forces and advanced toward the town on October 7.[21] Various sources reported that the TDF then withdrew from Inda Abaguna, which is between Adi Gebru and Shire on the B30, and Shire itself on October 7, enabling ENDF-TPF forces to enter Shire with minimal fighting on October 8.[22]

Central Axis: Mekele-Abiy Addi-Adwa

The ENDF captured Abiy Addi—a gateway town between TPLF-controlled areas in central Tigray, including Adwa and the group’s historical guerrilla sanctuaries in the nearby Kola Tembien mountains, and ENDF-controlled southern Tigray. The ENDF and TPF advanced roughly 33 miles northwest from Mekele along the C23 highway to capture Hagere Selam between October 5 and 6. Conflict reported Sajid Nadeem said that the town had reportedly changed hands four times between October 4 and when ENDF forces consolidated control over the area on October 6.[23] Federal forces then advanced another 27 miles along the C23 and captured Abiy Addi, which is roughly equidistant between Mekele 60 miles to the east and Adwa 60 miles to the north.[24]

Eastern Axis: Afar Region

Nothing significant to report.

Southern Axis: Mekele-Alamata-Sekota-Woldia

Nothing significant to report.

Other Rebel Kinetic Activity

CTP covered Amhara Fano National Movement (AFNM) activity along key roads linking Amhara and Tigray in yesterday’s Africa File and will report further on ongoing AFNM attacks in southeastern Amhara’s North Shewa zone in the Ethiopia War Security Review or Africa File next week.[25]

Major Domestic Political Developments

Conflicting reports allege that TPLF leadership have relocated to central Tigray or fled to Eritrea. CTP reported unverified claims in the October 6 Ethiopian War Security Review that TPLF leadership had withdrawn from Mekelle in the direction of Adwa.[26] Armed Conflict Location & Event Data reported on October 7 that TPLF leaders were in Ahferom district, which sits roughly 20 miles between Adigrat to the east and Adwa to the west.[27] The Ethiopian Conflict Map reported on October 8 that the TDF had withdrawn from the A2 between Adigrat and Adwa, however, which would include the Afherom district capital Enticho.[28] Pro-Fano Ethiopian outlet Borkena cited what it characterized as pro-TPF media source Awrama Times, which claimed on October 7 that TPLF head Debretsion Gebremichael and four other TPLF leaders crossed into Eritrea, although Borkena also noted that pro-TPLF Zara media disputed the claim.[29]

Regional Activity

Ethiopia and Eritrea have each effectively framed the conflict in northern Ethiopia as a war between them and threat to each of their sovereignty. Ethiopia has accused Eritrea of invading Ethiopia and set conditions to justify direct action against Eritrea.[30] The Ethiopian communication minister accused Eritrea of sending troops into Tigray and demanded that they leave Ethiopian territory “without delay” on October 7.[31] Ethiopian Foreign Minster Gedion Timothewos wrote a letter to the UN Security Council on October 7 calling Eritrean actions in northern Ethiopia as an “all-out invasion” and “blatant act of aggression.”[32] The letter invoked Ethiopia’s “inherent right to self-defense” and called for international support for Ethiopian “preventative measures.”[33] Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed released a statement on October 7 demanding that Eritrea stop arming Ethiopian rebels and warning that Ethiopia has no desire for war, but that the outcome of any conflict is “already determined” if Ethiopia is “forced” into action.[34]

Eritrea has responded by framing Ethiopia’s actions as part of a plan to set conditions to invade Eritrea and seize the port of Assab to gain Red Sea access. Eritrean state TV reportedly broadcasted an official statement that linked the current war to Ethiopia's broader ambition for Red Sea access via the port of Assab, arguing that a war on Tigray was a war on Assab.[35] Eritrean Information Minister Yemane Gebremeskel called Ethiopia’s allegations of an Eritrean invasion part of a plan to justify a war against Eritrea.[36] Yemane posted a statement on X on October 9 that accused Ethiopia of pursuing an “unprovoked war of aggression” against Eritrea for more than three ​years since Ethiopia “demanded” sea access via Assab in 2023 and claimed that Ethiopia was using the current conflict to invade Eritrea.[37]