Situation Report Threat Update

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The Editors

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Threat Update Situation Report

Authors

The Editors

Latest Edition

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CTP’s Threat Update series provides you with a weekly analysis and assessment of the al Qaeda network and Iran
Below are the takeaways from the week:
  1. Iran’s hardliners may leverage widespread economic protests to reexamine previously-interpellated Rouhani administration officials, including the finance and agriculture ministers. Hardliners garnered enough parliamentary support to re-interpellate and impeach Labor Minister Ali Rabiei on August 8. Parliament previously interpellated Rabiei on March 13.

    Read Nicholas Carl’s “Iran’s Hardliners Will Be the First Winners of the Protest Movement” for additional insight.

  2. Southern Yemeni secessionists threatened to attack al Hudaydah port in western Yemen to spoil UN negotiations but likely lack control over the forces required to do so. Southern Yemenis may attempt to secede militarily if the current UN process does not adequately address their grievances.

    Revisit CTP’s warning on the risks that southern secession poses to U.S. interests.

  3. The Islamic State of Iraq and al Sham (ISIS) in Libya may be attempting to return to Libya’s coastal regions by weakening the Libyan National Army (LNA), the militia coalition that controls eastern Libya. ISIS may ultimately seek to return to Benghazi, where it waged an insurgency until early 2017.

    View all of CTP’s work on ISIS in Libya in the storystream.
For a deeper dive into what's happening relating to the al Qaeda network and Iran, see our regional and country-by-country updates below.

IRAN

Widespread economic protests in Iran in early August gave hardliners enough parliamentary support to successfully remove a senior Rouhani administration official from office. Parliament impeached Labor Minister Ali Rabiei on August 8. Parliament previously interpellated Rabiei on March 13 and may move to impeach other previously-questioned cabinet officials such as Finance Minister Massoud Karbasian and Agriculture Minister Mahmoud Hojjati.

YEMEN

Southern Yemeni secessionist will not be able follow through on their threat to seize al Hudaydah port if their demands are not met in UN negotiations. The southerners’ inclusion in initial discussions emboldened them to seek to secure their interests in an earlier round of talks. Southern Yemenis may attempt to secede militarily if the current UN process does not adequately address their grievances.

LIBYA

ISIS Wilayat Barqah is attempting to disrupt access to resources and degrade security in territory controlled by the Libyan National Army (LNA) in north-central and eastern Libya. The group conducted several recent attacks on LNA security targets on the edges of the Oil Crescent region. ISIS likely seeks to weaken the LNA and reconstitute its insurgency in Benghazi.

HORN OF AFRICA

Al Shabaab is increasing its presence in northern Somalia. Suspected al Shabaab militants conducted the first suicide bombing in Buhoodle, Somaliland. Al Shabaab also occupied a settlement in the Gedo region near the Ethiopian border after security forces withdrew from the area.