Pakistan Security Brief

Pakistan fires across LoC at 50 locations, killing one and injuring six, Indian Home Minister promises response; India fires across border in Pujab; Prime Minister says that Pakistan and India should discuss Kashmir solution; PML-N Chairman says India should abide by UN resolutions on Kashmir; Indian and Pakistani DGMOs talk by phone; White House Press Secretary says relationship with Pakistan is extremely valuable; U.S. to give Pakistan $1.6 billion in aid; Prime Minister meets with American Vice President; U.S. disputes Amnesty International report that U.S. drone strikes are illegal; Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa Chief Minister urges TTP talks; Prime Minister says that Musharraf should be held accountable for coup; Pakistan fails to meet IMF benchmark; ANP Balochistan leader kidnapped in Quetta.

India-Pakistan Relations

• On Tuesday night and Wednesday, India claimed that Pakistan had violated the Line of Control (LoC) in Kashmir at least 50 times, killing one border guard and injuring six more in Arnia, Jammu district. India has evacuated approximately 100 civilians from towns near the border and several hundred more are in government shelters. Indian Home Minister Sushilkumar Shinde said that India will give a “befitting reply” to what Indian Border Security Force spokesman Vinod Yadav called the most serious clashes at the LoC in a decade.[1]

• On Wednesday, Pakistan claimed that the Indian Army once again fired across the border in Sialkot district Punjab. No casualties were reported.[2]

• According to a Wednesday report in The New York Times, the recent uptick in LoC incidents in Kashmir has destroyed trade which began in 2008 between the two sides of Kashmir.[3]

• In a speech on Tuesday at the United States Institute of Peace in Washington D.C., Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif said that he is willing to go “the extra mile” to resolve issues with India. He said that recent flare-ups on the Line of Control in Kashmir were unfortunate, but that dialogue with India is the best way to solve the Kashmir dispute. At the same event, he said that American drone strikes in Pakistan are a “major irritant” in relations with the United States, and asked the U.S. to stop them.[4]

• On Tuesday, the chairman of the Pakistan Muslim League- Nawaz (PML-N), Raja Zafarul Haq, responded to a statement by Indian External Affairs Minister Salman Khurshid that the Kashmir dispute should be resolved bilaterally. He pointed to UN resolutions calling for a plebiscite in Kashmir and a statement in the 1980s by then-Prime Minister of India Rajiv Gandhi pledging to resolve the dispute in accordance with those resolutions.[5]

• The Pakistani and Indian Directors General of Military Operations (DGMO) spoke by phone on Tuesday and discussed the recent surge of incidents in Kashmir. The conversation came soon after a report by the Press Trust of India that a meeting between the DGMOs could be delayed by several weeks.[6]

U.S. Pakistan Relations

• On Tuesday, White House Press Secretary Jay Carney said that President Barack Obama is looking forward to his meeting with Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif on Wednesday, and that the U.S.’s relationship with Pakistan is “enormously valuable when it comes to U.S. national security.” He said that the two leaders are also expected to discuss economic issues.[7]

• On Tuesday, the U.S. State Department confirmed its previously reported release of $1.6 billion in aid to Pakistan. $1.38 billion is military aid and $260 million civilian. The State Department has also asked for another $1.16 billion in aid: $857 million for civilian aid, and $305 million for military assistance.[8]

• On Wednesday, Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif met with American Vice President Joseph Biden in Washington D.C. The two discussed issues such as the Afghanistan reconciliation process and trade. The leaders agreed that the Strategic Dialogue process is the best way to improve ties between the two countries.[9]

• In an interview in The New York Times published on Tuesday, former Ambassador to the United States Husain Haqqani said that there is misunderstanding on both sides of the U.S.-Pakistan relationship which goes all the way back to Pakistan’s founding in 1947. He said that, among other things, Pakistan mistakenly assumed that the United States would build it up as an anti-Communist state, and that the U.S. failed to comprehend Pakistan’s long and complicated relationship with extremist groups.[10]

• Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif met with the U.S. House of Representatives Committee on Foreign Affairs and discussed the Mumbai attacks, Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT) founder Hafiz Saeed, and Dr. Shakil Afridi, the Pakistani doctor who was arrested after allegedly aiding the United States in its search for Osama bin Laden. Foreign Secretary Jalil Abbas Jilani, who was recently appointed Ambassador to the United States, said after the meeting that Dr. Afridi’s case will be decided by Pakistani courts.[11]

U.S. Drone Strikes

• On Tuesday, White House Press Secretary Jay Carney responded to reports by Amnesty International and Human Rights Watch that the United States has broken international law and killed more civilians than it has admitted with its drone strikes in Pakistan and Yemen. Carney said that, while the United States takes the reports seriously, the U.S. has not violated international law, and that civilian casualties are kept as low as possible.[12]

• In a Tuesday report in The News, a Foreign Office spokesman said that Amnesty International’s findings on the American drone program confirm what Pakistan had already been claiming, and that the report is “timely”.[13]

Talks with the TTP

• National Assembly opposition leader Khursheed Shah said on Tuesday that talks with the Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) have still not begun.[14]

• Pervez Khattack, the Chief Minister of Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa, said on Tuesday that talks with the TTP should be started in accordance with the September decision by the All Parties Conference (APC).[15]

• According to a Wednesday report in The Frontier Post, the TTP has repeated its denial that it is responsible for last week’s assassination of a Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa provincial minister or any other high profile attack in the country. The TTP blames these attacks on either splinter groups or groups not affiliated with the TTP.[16]

Domestic

• In a Monday speech to the Pakistani community in Washington D.C., Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif said that former President Pervez Musharraf should be punished for toppling Sharif’s elected government in a 1999 coup and for his responsibility for allowing terrorism to flourish in Pakistan.[17]

• On Tuesday, former Finance Minister Hafiz Pasha said Pakistan’s balance of payments is worse than what the International Monetary Fund (IMF) had projected. The IMF will send a team to Pakistan next week to assess whether to release a $550 million loan to the country. Pakistan’s foreign currency reserves were $816 million less than IMF’s benchmark at the end of September. Pasha said that that number has declined and that he does not expect the IMF to release the new loan.[18]

• According to a Wednesday report in The Express Tribune, Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif decided last week that the Punjab Counter Terrorism Department (CTD) should be merged with the new Anti-Terrorism Force due to the former’s poor performance. The CTD, which was established in 2009, was reportedly unable to present Prime Minister Sharif with a single example of a case where it arrested or stopped a terrorist.[19]

Militancy

• Three unidentified gunmen reportedly abducted former Awami National Party (ANP) Balochistan provincial president Arbab Abdul Zahir Kasi in Quetta on Wednesday.[20]

• A house near Peshawar, Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa was damaged on Tuesday when an unidentified attacker threw a grenade at it. No one was injured in the explosion.[21]