Pakistan Security Brief

U.S. Ambassador says U.S.-Afghan agreement does not preclude possibility of drone strikes in Pakistan; U.S. Congressman Dana Rohrabacher writes letter to Prime Minister Gilani; National Assembly passes resolutions concerning Gilani and formation of new province; National Assembly Speaker says no decision yet on Gilani’s disqualification; Certain PML-N leaders not in favor of mass protest; Two explosions kill five people in Bajaur agency; Inspector General of Sindh says Lyari operation to end in “day or two;” Neither India nor Pakistan willing to withdraw troops from Siachen; Aid agencies in Pakistan suffering from fallout after Osama bin Laden raid.

U.S.-Pakistan Relations

• U.S. Ambassador Ryan Crocker indicated on Wednesday that the Strategic Partnership Agreement signed by the U.S. and Afghanistan does not preclude the possibility of drone strikes inside Pakistan after U.S. forces have left Afghanistan in 2014. The agreement states that the U.S. will not “launch offensive actions against other states from Afghan soil,” but according to Crocker, the two states can consult on an appropriate “defensive” response in the event of threats to Afghanistan. Crocker urged Pakistan to take action against “militant safe havens” within the country and prevent cross-border attacks by militants.[1]

• The Express Tribune reported that U.S. Congressman Dana Rohrabacher, who recently introduced a resolution seeking self-determination for Balochistan, wrote a letter to Prime Minister Yousuf Raza Gilani condemning the recent “state sponsored violence” in Balochistan and calling Pakistan “a failed state.” Rohrabacher alleged that the Pakistani military and intelligence services continuously “diverted money” intended to help the Pakistani people “into funding terrorism and buying weapons to repress their own people.”[2]

Domestic Politics

• On Thursday, the National Assembly (NA) passed a resolution “reposing confidence” in Prime Minister Gilani, despite intense protests from members of the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N), who were wearing black armbands to protest Gilani’s refusal to step down after being found guilty of contempt. The NA also passed a resolution supporting the formation of a South Punjab province.[3]

• Speaker of the National Assembly Fehmida Mirza told the media on Thursday that she has not made a decision regarding the disqualification of Prime Minister Gilani. Mirza said that she is waiting to read the Supreme Court’s detailed order and will then “consult and discuss the matter.” She added that the opposition parties seeking Gilani’s removal have not contacted her, but she hopes they do, so that she can talk to them about their issues.[4]

• Lawyers from the Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP) caused a disturbance during a session of the Rawalpindi District Bar Association (RDBA) on Thursday, while protesting against a resolution demanding Prime Minister Gilani’s resignation. The PPP lawyers also got into a brawl with lawyers from the PML-N and the Pakistan Tehrik-e-Insaf.[5]

• Certain senior leaders within the PML-N are not in favor of the party’s plans to start a mass movement to force Prime Minister Gilani out of office. They fear that the party will not be able to execute such an ambitious plan properly, which will then adversely affect the PML-N.[6]

• The “memogate” commission heard concluding arguments from all parties in the case during a hearing on Thursday.[7]

Militancy

• On Thursday, two explosions killed at least five people in Chamarkand village in Bajaur agency, which is located in Pakistan’s Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA). The first blast killed two pro-government tribal elders, while the second bomb exploded ten minutes after security forces arrived on the scene, killing two paramilitary soldiers and one tribal policeman.[8]

Lyari

• Inspector General of Sindh Mushtaq Shah said Thursday that police are hopeful that the ongoing security operation against criminal elements in Karachi’s Lyari area will end in “a day or two.” The operation continued for a seventh day on Thursday, with reports that at least eight people were killed and 41 others were injured during the past 24 hours. The police have not yet arrested any suspected criminals.[9]

India-Pakistan Relations

• The Washington Post reported that both Pakistani and Indian officials have acknowledged that deploying troops to Siachen Glacier in northern Kashmir, the site of an avalanche that buried 138 soldiers and civilians alive last month, is expensive and “useless,” but neither side seems willing to withdraw its troops and change the status quo. According to an Indian major general, India is unlikely to agree to demilitarize Siachen without concessions from Pakistan on issues such as stopping cross-border terrorism. India also wants Pakistan to accept its map, which Pakistan refuses to do, since it would be “tantamount to” accepting India’s “illegal occupation” of the glacier.[10]

Aid Work in Pakistan

• According to the New York Times, the detention of Shakil Afridi, the Pakistani doctor who helped the CIA track Osama bin Laden, has had a negative effect on aid agencies within Pakistan, especially Save the Children. Afridi told interrogators from the Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) Directorate that he was introduced to the CIA through Save the Children, but the aid group adamantly denied the claim and said it was being made a “scapegoat” by a “desperate” man. Save the Children complained that its senior managers have been forbidden from leaving Pakistan, its staff members have been denied visas, and its aid supplies have been blocked by customs officials. This has led to approximately 35,000 infants being deprived of medical care over a three-month period. Other aid groups have also complained of problems due to Pakistani officials suspecting their employees of being spies.[11]