Pakistan Security Brief

TTP divided over ceasefire extension; Sources say TTP shura will announce the extension of the ceasefire after meeting today; Government may release 6-10 TTP prisoners as goodwill gesture; Government considers “peace zone” in settled areas, not tribal belt; U.S. unlikely to leave surplus equipment with Pakistan; Ministry of Foreign Affairs rejects allegations that Pakistan involved in Afghan terror attacks; Hizbut Tahrir resurfaces in Islamabad; Gunmen kill polio worker in Bannu; Prime Minister Sharif meets with top officials, PML-N to discuss Musharraf and TTP peace talks; PM Sharif convenes, then postpones high-level security meeting to discuss Musharraf, TTP peace talks, and ongoing security threats; Musharraf rumored to be leaving the country soon.

Peace Talks

• On Monday, a senior Taliban leader and Shura member stated that the TTP is divided over granting an extension of the ceasefire that officially expired on Monday. Some factions are in favor of extending the ceasefire so long as peace talks with the government continue. Others want to resume attacks and seek revenge for the alleged extrajudicial killings and maltreatment of TTP prisoners in Sindh province. Senior members of the TTP shura have held meetings to try and build consensus on the ceasefire extension, but have not yet reached an agreement. One member said the TTP wants to know if the federal government supports the policy of the Sindh provincial government, adding that it will be difficult for the TTP to reach a consensus on a ceasefire without an explanation from the federal government.[1]

• According to sources cited in a Tuesday article in The News, the TTP shura is expected to announce an extension of the ceasefire, which expired on Monday. The central shura will meet today to discuss the ceasefire extension, as well as ongoing peace talks with the government. [2]

• According to a Tuesday article in The News, the government may release six to ten TTP prisoners against whom there is insufficient evidence of involvement in terrorism. Interior Minister Chaudhry Nisar Ali Khan has been conducting investigations about the TTP prisoners held at detention centers as a gesture of goodwill toward to the TTP. Khan expressed his hope that the TTP will reciprocate the government’s gesture and free prisoners like Professor Ajmal Khan, the former Vice Chancellor of the Islamic College University, Peshawar. According to an unnamed source, the government is also considering establishing a “peace zone” for talks between the government and TTP interlocutors, where there will be no threat of drone attacks, where the responsibility for security will fall to both sides, and which will most conveniently facilitate talks between the two parties. The source added that the withdrawal of troops from certain areas in the tribal areas was not possible, and that such a “peace zone” would likely be established in a settled area, not the tribal belt.[3]

U.S.-Pakistan Relations

• According to a Monday report in The Associated Press, the U.S. is trying to decide what to do with the equipment from the war in Afghanistan that will be too expensive to transport back to the U.S. after the American withdrawal from Afghanistan. The U.S. Department of Defense disavowed any intention of selling equipment inside Afghanistan to Pakistan after Afghan officials indicated opposition to Pakistan receiving any American equipment. The U.S. has considered scrapping the equipment instead of giving it to any of the countries in the region.[4]

Afghanistan-Pakistan Relations

• On Monday, a spokesperson from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs rejected allegations by Afghan officials, who claimed that Pakistan had been involved in recent terrorist attacks in Kabul and impeded efforts for peace talks between the Afghan Taliban and the high peace council. [5]

Militancy

• According to a Tuesday article in Dawn, extremist group Hizbut Tahrir (HuT) has resurfaced in Islamabad, distributing pamphlets to citizens asking them to support the organization and the establishment of an Islamic caliphate in Pakistan. Some pamphlets encouraged people with relatives in the military to help HuT achieve its mission so that “the US meets its doom in the region.” Pamphlets also claimed the American presence in the region was the cause of bomb blasts and insecurity in Pakistan.[6]

• On Monday a bomb blast in Gulshan-e-Iqbal, Karachi injured two people near a mosque.[7]

• On Monday a bomb blast in Gulshan-e-Hadeed, Karachi injured two people near a mosque.[8]

• On Monday, unidentified gunmen killed a polio worker in Bannu, Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa.[9]

• On Monday, a bomb disposal squad (BDS) defused an improvised explosive device (IED) in Bakhshi Pul, Peshawar.[10]

• On Monday, a bomb blast destroyed a gas pipeline in Sheikhabad, Peshawar.[11]

• On Monday, a roadside bomb injured one person in Parachinar, Kurram agency.[12]

Domestic

• On Monday, Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif held a meeting with Defense Minister Khawaja Asif, Interior Minister Chaudhry Nisar Ali Khan, Information Minister Pervez Rashid, and other members of the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) in Islamabad to discuss peace talks with the TTP and the removal of former president Pervez Musharraf from the Exit Control List (ECL). According to unnamed sources, the majority of the PML-N leaders were opposed to removing Musharraf’s name from the ECL, but that some had put forward a recommendation that if Musharraf apologized to the nation, they would remove his name. Because members did not reach a decision on the Musharraf issue, Prime Minister Sharif summoned other leaders to discuss the issue on Tuesday.[13]

• On Tuesday, Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif will convene a high-level security meeting, where Sharif and attendants again discussed the hearing against Pervez Musharraf, ongoing peace talks with the TTP, and other national security issues. According to an article in Geo News, Sharif postponed a national security meeting, which was scheduled to take place with the army and inter-services intelligence chiefs, today at 3:30pm.[14]

• According to a Tuesday report in Dawn, rumors about that former President Pervez Musharraf may leave the country to go to an unidentified Gulf country. On Monday, reports surfaced that a plane was waiting at a Rawalpindi airport to take Musharraf out of Pakistan. The plane later was discovered to belong to a businessman who was visiting Pakistan and had no connection to Msuharraf. Musharraf’s lawyer also filed a request to allow him to leave the country.[15