Iran Strike Updates

The Critical Threats Project (CTP) at the American Enterprise Institute and the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) will be publishing two updates per day while conditions in the Middle East warrant it. Our updates will provide insights into the ongoing strike on Iran's nuclear facilities, military infrastructure, and key military and nuclear program leadership. We will prioritize covering Iranian and Iranian-sponsored activities in response to the attacks that threaten US forces and interests.

We will produce two updates per day while conditions in the Middle East warrant it. This evening update covers events between 6:00 AM ET and 6:00 PM ET on June 14. CTP-ISW published a morning update that covered events between 2:00 PM ET on June 13 and 6:00 AM ET on June 14.

The Israeli air campaign is driving generational turnover in Iranian military leadership.[i] Israeli strikes have killed numerous senior military officers so far. These individuals, such as Mohammad Bagheri and Amir Ali Hajji Zadeh, had occupied some of the highest positions in the Iranian armed forces for years and, in some cases, decades.[ii] Many of these officers had close personal bonds to one another, having forged brotherly ties in their youth during the Iran-Iraq War and maintained those relationships as they rose together through military ranks in the following decades. These relationships created an informal influence network at the highest echelons of the Iranian military establishment. These officers were extremely influential in shaping Iranian strategy due to their positions at the top of the military hierarchy and their immediate access to Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. These officers intervened in Iranian domestic affairs on several occasions to assert their shared political preferences and see the regime through internal crises. CTP-ISW identified this network in a 2013 report, labeling it the IRGC Command Network.[iii] That Israel has killed so many members within and in the orbit of the Command Network in recent days means that Israel has not only removed a key leadership cadre—it has also degraded one of the most stable and influential factions in the Islamic Republic. The Command Network has been an enduring presence in Iranian decision-making circles for decades—one of the few factions to remain so dominant other than Khamenei himself. It is too soon to assess what implications the dismantlement of the Command Network will have on Iranian behavior and strategy.

Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei appointed Major General Amir Hatami as the overall Artesh commander.[iv] Hatami replaces Major General Abdol Rahim Mousavi, whom Khamenei earlier appointed as Armed Forces General Staff (AFGS) chief. The selection of Hatami is notable for several reasons. Khamenei overlooked Artesh Deputy Commander Brigadier General Mohammad Hossein Dadras, who has been the Artesh second-in-command since 2017, and instead favored Hatami for the top post. Hatami is a career Artesh officer but has little experience in senior Artesh command positions compared to Dadras. Hatami spent much of his career working in the AFGS before becoming the defense and armed forces logistics minister under the second Hassan Rouhani administration (2017-2021). Hatami was the first Artesh officer to become the Iranian defense minister in decades, highlighting the great trust that Khamenei had in him. Khamenei appointed Hatami to become his personal adviser for Artesh affairs at the end of Rouhani’s term, further demonstrating support for Hatami, despite the deteriorating relationship between Khamenei and Rouhani.

Hatami is notably a vocal proponent of Iran’s “active deterrence” doctrine, which has underpinned the offensive strategy that Iran has had since 2014-16.[v] Active deterrence is a preventive warfare doctrine that emphasizes interventions abroad to expand Iranian influence and strategic depth and strengthen the Axis of Resistance.[vi] It does not follow, of course, that Hatami’s promotion will presage additional Iranian interventions abroad. But it does at least reflect the influential role that Hatami appears to have played in shaping Iranian strategy and Khamenei’s decision-making in recent years.

Key Takeaways

• The Israeli air campaign is driving generational turnover in Iranian military leadership. Israeli strikes have killed numerous senior military officers so far. Many of these officers had close personal bonds to one another, having forged brotherly ties in their youth during the Iran-Iraq War and maintained those relationships as they rose together through military ranks in the proceeding decades.
• Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei appointed Major General Amir Hatami as the overall Artesh commander. Hatami is notably a vocal proponent of Iran’s “active deterrence” doctrine, which has underpinned the offensive strategy that Iran has had since 2014-16.
• The IDF has continued to target Iranian military targets across Iran, likely to degrade Iran’s retaliatory capabilities.
• This update contains early bomb damage assessments (BDA) of several Iranian facilities, including Natanz, Esfahan Nuclear Technology Center, and several military bases.
• Two US officials said Israeli strikes at Natanz were “extremely effective,” but a senior Israeli official added that the damage is not yet “fatal.”
• Israel struck the Artesh Air Force 2nd Tactical Airbase (TAB) in Tabriz on the night of June 12 to 13, as CTP-ISW previously reported. The strikes destroyed several buildings north of Artesh Air Force aircraft hangars and cratered the approaches from the hangars to the runway.
• Israel may have destroyed a likely aircraft hangar and a radar at Hamedan Air Force Base (43km north of Hamedan) on the night of June 12 to 13.
• Israel struck several buildings at the Amand Missile Base that likely stored ballistic missiles.
• Israel struck the Bakhtaran (Panj Pelleh) underground missile base in Kermanshah on June 13.
• Israel expanded its ongoing strike campaign against Iran on June 14 by targeting critical energy infrastructure. This expansion marks new Israeli efforts to degrade Iran’s capacity to sustain its military and nuclear program.
• CTP-ISW is monitoring reports that the IDF struck the Shahran oil depot on the northwestern outskirts of Tehran on June 14.
• Iran may respond to the Israeli escalation by threatening international maritime security.
• Iranian officials said that Iran will not return to US-Iran nuclear negotiations until Israel halts its attacks on Iran and Iran has finished its retaliatory attacks on Israel.
• Some of Iran’s partners and proxies in the Axis of Resistance have so far failed to meaningfully intervene and impose costs on Israel for targeting Iran so far.
• Iran has launched seven waves of ballistic missile attacks targeting Israel from Iranian territory since initial Israeli strikes on June 12.

Israel’s Air Campaign in Iran

The IDF has continued to target Iranian military targets across Iran, likely to degrade Iran’s retaliatory capabilities. The IDF confirmed on June 14 that it struck an unspecified underground weapons facility in western Iran.[vii] The IDF stated that the facility was used to store and launch dozens of ballistic and cruise missiles.[viii] An Iran-focused analyst reported that the Israeli strikes collapsed the facilities’ entry points and silo openings.[ix] Satellite imagery shows that the IDF struck the Bid Ganeh ballistic missile site in Tehran Province and the Khomein missile site in Markazi Province.[x] The Bid Ganeh site likely stored medium-range ballistic missiles, according to open-source watchers on social media.[xi] Satellite imagery shows that the Israeli strike on the Khomein missile site damaged the drive-through facility, which allows for the efficient movement of missiles and other related equipment.[xii] The IAF reported that it was unable to destroy all of Iran’s missiles and has set disrupting Iran’s ability to launch large barrages as its top priority.[xiii] 

Israel struck Esfahan Nuclear Technology Center (ENTC) (12km east of Esfahan City) on the night of June 12-13.[xiv] Satellite imagery published on June 14 showed damage to several warehouses and other buildings in the complex. The ENTC houses a number of nuclear facilities, including a metallic uranium production facility, a Uranium Conversion Facility, Fuel Manufacturing Plant, and Fuel Fabrication Laboratory, as well as reactors. CTP-ISW previously reported on June 13 that the Israeli strikes hit the metallic uranium production facility and other infrastructure for re-converting enriched uranium to produce nuclear fuel.[xv] The IAEA added that four critical buildings at Esfahan nuclear sites were damaged in the June 13 strike, including the Uranium Conversion Facility and the Fuel Plate Fabrication Plant.[xvi] These comments likely refer to ENTC, though they could apply to Natanz (see below), which is also in Esfahan Province.

Two US officials said Israeli strikes at Natanz were “extremely effective,” but a senior Israeli official added that the damage is not yet “fatal.”[xvii] Israel struck the Natanz Enrichment Complex, which is one of Iran’s nuclear facilities, on June 12 and 13.[xviii] Satellite imagery on June 13 confirmed that the strikes destroyed the Pilot Fuel Enrichment Plant (PFEP) at Natanz.[xix] Satellite imagery posted on June 14 shows damage to buildings in the northwest and northeast corners of the facility, as well as other buildings elsewhere in the facility (see above). The senior Israeli official told Israeli Army Radio that the strikes inflicted significant damage to Natanz’s air defense systems and Natanz itself.[xx] The two US officials said in a comment to CNN that the strikes knocked out electricity in Natanz’s lower levels, which is where centrifuges used to enrich uranium are stored.[xxi] The IAEA separately added that the electric infrastructure at Natanz was destroyed.[xxii]

Israel struck the Artesh Air Force 2nd Tactical Airbase (TAB) in Tabriz on the night of June 12 to 13, as CTP-ISW previously reported.[xxiii] The strikes destroyed several buildings north of Artesh Air Force aircraft hangars and cratered the approaches from the hangars to the runway. This airbase houses three Iranian squadrons (the 21st, 22nd, and 23rd Tactical Fighter Squadrons) that fly the MiG-29 and F-5, according to open-source watchers on social media and the Aviationist.[xxiv] Iran will likely rapidly repair the runways, but cratering these surfaces would have prevented aircraft from interfering with Israeli operations on the night of June 12 to 13. The base also stored SA-6 Gainful surface-to-air systems.[xxv]

Israel may have destroyed a likely aircraft hangar and a radar at Hamedan Air Force Base (43km north of Hamedan) on the night of June 12 to 13. Satellite imagery posted on June 14 shows damage to a probable aircraft hangar on the northeastern side of the runway. The hangar’s parking spots are large enough to house F14 Tomcats (with wings swept), F4 Phantoms, MiG-29s, or F5s. Hamadan reportedly hosts the 31st Tactical Fighter Squadron, which flies F4s.[xxvi]

Israel struck a number of buildings at Amand Missile Base that likely stored ballistic missiles. CTP-ISW previously reported that Iran stores Ghadr medium-range ballistic missiles at Amand.[xxvii] Many of the buildings to the west of the main Amand facility are surrounded by walls or high earthen berms, which suggests that Iran may have stored the missiles in these buildings. Earthen berms and walls can help contain explosions.

Israel struck the Bakhtaran (Panj Pelleh) underground missile base in Kermanshah on June 13.[xxviii] The Bakhtaran (Panj Pelleh) underground missile base reportedly stores Qiam-1 and Fateh-110 ballistic missiles.[xxix] The base also reportedly houses an underground facility, two munition storage areas, and missile launch pads.[xxx] It is not clear if Israel damaged the underground facility, however.

Israel expanded its ongoing strike campaign against Iran on June 14 by targeting critical energy infrastructure. This expansion marks new Israeli efforts to degrade Iran’s capacity to sustain its military and nuclear program. The IDF targeted Iranian gas refineries and industrial facilities early June 14, following waves of airstrikes on air defenses and nuclear-linked sites across western Iran and Tehran on June 13.[xxxi] The IDF struck a natural gas processing facility linked to Iran’s South Pars field in Bushehr Province on June 14, triggering an explosion and fire that forced Iranian authorities to shut down Phase 14.[xxxii] South Pars is one of the largest gas fields in the world and central to Iran’s domestic energy supply.[xxxiii] The IDF also reportedly targeted Fajr-e Jam Gas Refinery in Bushehr Province on June 14.[xxxiv] The Wall Street Journal reported that Israel may have been targeting nearby air defenses, while IRGC-affiliated media said “a collision with a hostile small aircraft“ caused the explosion.[xxxv] The refinery processes gas from the South Pars field and the Nar and Kangan fields and plays a key role in purifying Iran’s domestic natural gas supply.[xxxvi] Over 90 percent of Iran’s electricity is generated by gas-powered thermal plants.[xxxvii] Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu previously pledged not to target oil infrastructure during calls with former US President Joe Biden in October 2024 due to the risk that targeting oil infrastructure would cause the price of oil to rise.[xxxviii]

CTP-ISW is monitoring reports that the IDF struck the Shahran oil depot on the northwestern outskirts of Tehran on June 14.[xxxix] CTP-ISW will cover these events in the June 15 morning edition.

Disruptions to Iran’s natural gas production will likely worsen the country’s ongoing energy crisis and lead to more widespread electricity blackouts, however. Iranians have previously protested against the regime in response to energy shortages. Demonstrations over the rising gas prices in 2017 and 2018 escalated into broader challenges for the regime’s stability.[xl]

The IDF separately targeted Farda motors automative factory in Boroujerd, Lorestan Province, on June 14.[xli] The strike reportedly caused extensive damage to production lines, vehicle parts, and completed cars, according to Iranian media. It remains unclear whether Farda Motors had any ties to Iranian military entities or was operating under the direction of Iran’s military-industrial organizations.

Iran may respond to the Israeli escalation by threatening international maritime security. Former IRGC officer and current parliamentary security committee member Esmail Kowsari stated on June 14 that Iran is reviewing whether to close the Strait of Hormuz.[xlii] IRGC-affiliated media also reported on June 14 that the Iranian Navy intercepted a British warship in the Sea of Oman and forced it to change course.[xliii] Iranian media claimed that the warship had entered the northern Indian Ocean to assist Israeli missile guidance efforts against Iran. Iranian officials have repeatedly threatened to attack US bases and international shipping in response to a potential strike.[xliv]

Israel has conducted a decapitation campaign targeting Iranian military leadership in addition to the strikes targeting nuclear and military infrastructure.[xlv] Israeli strikes have killed the IRGC Intelligence Aerospace Force Chief Deputy Brigadier General Khosrow Hassani on June 13.[xlvi] IRGC media reported that Hassani was with IRGC Aerospace Force Commander Amir Ali Hajizadeh during the Israeli strike that killed Hajizadeh.

Iran has launched seven waves of ballistic missile attacks targeting Israel from Iranian territory since initial Israeli strikes on June 12.[xlvii] An interceptor, shrapnel, or ballistic missile impacted in Tamra, northern Israel, and killed three people.[xlviii] Fourteen people were wounded.[xlix] A projectile also struck a house east of Haifa.[l] Iran has also launched at least two waves of one-way attack drones targeting Israel.[li] The IDF has so far intercepted about 90 percent of the Iranian munitions that Iran has launched as part of its Operation True Promise III.[lii] At least 10 interceptors, shrapnel, or ballistic missiles struck the Tel Aviv area on June 13 and earlier on June 14.[liii]

Iranian officials said that Iran will not return to US-Iran nuclear negotiations until Israel halts its attacks on Iran and Iran has finished its retaliatory attacks on Israel.[liv] Iran withdrew from the negotiations on June 13.[lv] Omani Foreign Minister Badr al Busaidi and a senior US official confirmed on June 14 that the sixth round of talks—originally scheduled for June 15--had been cancelled.[lvi] A senior US official said that the Trump administration remains committed to negotiations with Iran and hopes Iran will ”come to the table soon.”[lvii] This is consistent with remarks from US President Donald Trump on June 13 that Iran now has a "second chance" and that "even more brutal” attacks on Iran will follow if Iran does not commit to a nuclear deal with the United States.[lviii] Two sources told Axios that Iranian Foreign Affairs Minister Abbas Araghchi told several unspecified foreign ministers that Iran would be willing to resume talks with the US after Iran’s retaliation on Israel is over.[lix] Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian similarly stated that Iran will not participate in negotiations while Israel continues to attack.[lx]

Russian President Vladimir Putin held phone calls with the heads of state of the United States, Israel, and Iran on June 13 and June 14.[lxi] Putin‘s call with Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian on June 13 marked Pezeshkian’s first call with a foreign leader since Israel launched its air campaign, as CTP-ISW previously reported.[lxii] It is notable that Pezeshkian’s first call was to Putin and illustrates the close and growing relationship between Iran and Russia. Heads of state often call trusted partners in times of crisis. Iran’s closest allies are its Axis of Resistance, but those relationships are often managed by the IRGC. Putin also told Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu during a phone call that issues related to Iran’s nuclear program should be resolved through political diplomatic efforts, according to the Kremlin.[lxiii] Russia has consistently supported Iranian objectives in the recent nuclear talks by supporting Iran’s “right” to enrich uranium, though Russia does support the development of an Iranian nuclear weapon.[lxiv] Kremlin Presidential Aide Yuriy Ushakov claimed that Trump told Putin during a June 14 phone call that US Special Envoy to the Middle East and lead US negotiator Steve Witkoff is ready to resume nuclear talks with Iran.[lxv]  Trump did not confirm this in his own statement about the phone call. Putin has recently offered to facilitate the US-Iran nuclear negotiations in a likely attempt to portray Russia as a useful collaborator and partner that the United States needs to achieve certain global outcomes.[lxvi]

Iranian Foreign Affairs Minister Abbas Araghchi held a phone call with People’s Republic of China Foreign Affairs Minister Wang Yi.[lxvii]

Some of Iran’s partners and proxies in the Axis of Resistance have so far failed to meaningfully intervene and impose costs on Israel for targeting Iran so far. The IDF reported that the Israeli air defense system detected two rockets launched from the Gaza Strip on June 14 at 11:41 ET that fell near Nir Oz, southern Israel.[lxviii] No group has claimed this launch at the time of writing. Lebanese Hezbollah has not participated in the conflict at the time of this writing. These groups all released generic statements condemning the Israeli strikes on June 13.[lxix]

Houthi Leader Abdul Malik Badr al Din al Houthi stated during a televised speech that the Houthis support “the Iranian response and are partners in the position with everything we can.”[lxx] Houthi stated that aggression against Iran is aggression against all Arab countries, calling for all countries in the region to support the Iranian response.[lxxi] This speech is similar to the Houthis’ Political Bureau’s previous statement in support of Iran on June 13.[lxxii] The Houthis have targeted Israel since Israel’s air campaign. The Houthis previously launched three drones and one ballistic missile from Houthi-controlled areas of Yemen towards Israeli territory on June 13.[lxxiii] Houthi drone and ballistic missile attacks are not an inflection or new constraint on air defense bandwidth for Israel because the Houthis have regularly struck Israel with drones and missiles since November 2024.[lxxiv] These attacks do further constrain Israeli air defense bandwidth when combined with Iranian attacks, of course.

The IDF may have killed Houthi Chief of Staff Muhammad Abdulkarim al Ghamari in a targeted airstrike in Yemen on June 14.[lxxv] IDF sources told Israeli media that the IDF conducted strikes in Yemen in an attempted targeted attack on Ghamari.[lxxvi] Yemeni media reported that an explosion on October 14 Street in Sanaa was a result of an airstrike.[lxxvii] Ghamari has served as the Houthi Chief of Staff since 2016.[lxxviii] Ghamari was responsible for overseeing Houthi military operations and directing the procurement and deployment of various weapons.[lxxix] Ghamari reportedly has close ties to Hezbollah and the IRGC.[lxxx] The Houthis have not confirmed or commented on the strike at the time of writing. An Israeli source told Israeli media that the IDF ”will soon know if it succeeded.”[lxxxi]