Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 19, 2025

July 19, 2025, 4:00 pm ET

Click here to see ISW’s interactive map of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. This map is updated daily alongside the static maps present in this report.

Click here to see ISW's interactive map of Ukraine's offensive in Kursk Oblast.

Click here to see ISW’s 3D control of terrain topographic map of Ukraine. Use of a computer (not a mobile device) is strongly recommended for using this data-heavy tool.

Click here to access ISW’s archive of interactive time-lapse maps of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. These maps complement the static control-of-terrain map that ISW produces daily by showing a dynamic frontline. ISW will update this time-lapse map archive monthly.

Note: The data cut-off for this product was 11:45 am ET on July 19. ISW will cover subsequent reports in the July 20 Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment.

Russian forces conducted a large series of missile and drone strikes against Ukraine overnight on July 18 to 19. The Ukrainian Air Force reported that Russian forces launched 12 Iskander-M/KN-23 ballistic missiles from Voronezh, Kursk, and Rostov oblasts and occupied Crimea; eight Iskander-K cruise missiles from Millerovo, Rostov Oblast; and 15 Kh-101 cruise missiles from the airspace over Saratov Oblast.[1] The Ukrainian Air Force reported that Russian forces also launched around 200 Shahed-type drones and 144 decoy drones from Bryansk, Kursk, and Oryol cities; Millerovo, Rostov Oblast; Shatalovo, Smolensk Oblast; and Primorsko-Akhtarsk, Krasondar Krai. The Ukrainian Air Force reported that Ukrainian forces downed 208 total projectiles, including 185 Shahed-type drones, seven Iskander-M/KN-23 ballistic missiles, seven Iskander-K cruise missiles, and nine Kh-101 cruise missiles; and that seven cruise missiles and 129 decoy drones were “lost” or suppressed by Ukrainian electronic warfare (EW) systems. The Ukrainian Air Force reported that five missiles and 30 drones struck 12 unspecified locations. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky reported that the Russian strikes damaged critical infrastructure in Sumy Oblast and left thousands without power, and that Russian drones and missiles struck Pavlohrad, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, and damaged vital infrastructure.[2] Dnipropetrovsk Oblast Military Administration Head Serhiy Lysak reported that Russia’s overnight strike was the largest combined strike package against Pavlohrad since Russia's initial push into Ukraine in February 2022.[3] Ukrainian officials reported that Russian forces struck industrial, educational, and civilian infrastructure in Dnipropetrovsk, Odesa, and Sumy oblasts.[4]

Ukrainian Prime Minister Yulia Svyrydenko stated on July 18 that US President Donald Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky agreed on future US investment in Ukrainian drone production and US purchases of Ukrainian drones.[5] Svyrydenko stated that Ukrainian Defense Minister Denis Shmyhal will continue technical agreements with US counterparts and that Ukraine and the United States plan to sign a "drone deal" and are discussing US production of Ukrainian drones. Zelensky told the New York Post in an article published on July 17 that he discussed a "mega-deal" with Trump that would see the United States purchase Ukrainian drones alongside Ukrainian purchases of US-made weapons.[6] Ukrainian drone companies have developed a weeks-long innovation cycle over the last three and a half years of war that quickly responds to Russian drone adaptations, and Ukraine's Western allies will significantly benefit from partnering with Ukrainian innovators who are familiar with the modern realities of conventional warfare.

Key Takeaways:

• Russian forces conducted a large series of missile and drone strikes against Ukraine overnight on July 18 to 19.
• Ukrainian Prime Minister Yulia Svyrydenko stated on July 18 that US President Donald Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky agreed on future US investment in Ukrainian drone production and US purchases of Ukrainian drones.
• Ukrainian forces recently advanced near Pokrovsk. Russian forces recently advanced near Novopavlivka.

We do not report in detail on Russian war crimes because these activities are well-covered in Western media and do not directly affect the military operations we are assessing and forecasting. We will continue to evaluate and report on the effects of these criminal activities on the Ukrainian military and the Ukrainian population and specifically on combat in Ukrainian urban areas. We utterly condemn Russian violations of the laws of armed conflict and the Geneva Conventions and crimes against humanity even though we do not describe them in these reports.

• Ukrainian Operations in the Russian Federation
• Russian Supporting Effort – Northern Axis
• Russian Main Effort – Eastern Ukraine (comprised of three subordinate main efforts)
• Russian Subordinate Main Effort #1 – Push Ukrainian forces back from the international border with Belgorod Oblast and approach to within tube artillery range of Kharkiv City
• Russian Subordinate Main Effort #2 – Capture the remainder of Luhansk Oblast and push westward into eastern Kharkiv Oblast and encircle northern Donetsk Oblast
• Russian Subordinate Main Effort #3 – Capture the entirety of Donetsk Oblast, the claimed territory of Russia’s proxies in Donbas, and possibly advance into Dnipropetrovsk Oblast
• Russian Supporting Effort – Southern Axis
• Russian Air, Missile, and Drone Campaign
• Significant Activity in Belarus

Ukrainian Operations in the Russian Federation

Russian forces attacked in unspecified areas of Kursk Oblast on July 18 and 19.[7]

A Ukrainian drone regiment reported on July 18 that drone operators struck a Russian Tor air defense system in the Kursk direction.[8]

Russian Supporting Effort – Northern Axis (Russian objective: Create defensible buffer zones in northern Ukraine along the international border and approach to within tube artillery range of Sumy City)

Russian forces continued offensive operations in northern Sumy Oblast on July 19 but did not advance.

Russian forces attacked north of Sumy City near Kindrativka on July 19.[9] A Russian milblogger claimed that Ukrainian forces counterattacked north of Sumy City near Kindrativka and Oleksiivka.[10]

Order of Battle: Elements of the Russian 155th Naval Infantry Brigade (Pacific Fleet) are reportedly operating near Oleksiivka, and elements of the 76th and 106th airborne (VDV) divisions are reportedly operating near Yunakivka (northeast of Sumy City).[11] Drone operators of the 56th VDV Regiment (7th VDV Division) reportedly continue to operate in northern Sumy Oblast.[12]

Russian Main Effort – Eastern Ukraine

Russian Subordinate Main Effort #1 – Kharkiv Oblast (Russian objective: Push Ukrainian forces back from the international border with Belgorod Oblast and approach to within tube artillery range of Kharkiv City)

Russian forces continued assaults in northern Kharkiv Oblast on July 19 but did not advance.

Russian forces continued assaults north of Kharkiv City near Lyptsi and northeast of Kharkiv City near Vovchansk and Starytsya on July 18 and 19.[13]

Order of Battle: Drone operators of the Russian Chechen Sheikh Mansur Rifle Battalion (subordinated to the Russian Ministry of Defense [MoD]) are reportedly operating in the Kharkiv direction.[14] Drone operators of the Russian 245th Motorized Rifle Regiment (47th Tank Division, 1st Guards Tank Army [GTA], Moscow Military District [MMD]) reportedly struck Ukrainian positions near Stohnii (northwest of Kharkiv City).[15]

Russian forces continued assaults in the Velykyi Burluk direction on July 19 but did not make confirmed advances.

Unconfirmed claims: Russian milbloggers claimed that Russian forces advanced near Dehtyarne (north of Velykyi Burluk) and from Milove toward Khatnie and Ambarne (northeast of Velykyi Burluk).[16]

Order of Battle: Elements of the Russian 83rd Motorized Rifle Regiment (69th Motorized Rifle Division, 6th Combined Arms Army [CAA], Leningrad Military District [LMD]) are reportedly operating near Milove.[17]

Russian Subordinate Main Effort #2 – Luhansk Oblast (Russian objective: Capture the remainder of Luhansk Oblast and push westward into eastern Kharkiv Oblast and northern Donetsk Oblast)

Russian forces continued offensive operations in the Kupyansk direction on July 19 but did not make confirmed advances.

Unconfirmed claims: Russian milbloggers claimed that Russian forces are advancing from Dvorichna (northeast of Kupyansk) toward Kutkivka (west of Dvorichna) and that Russian forces advanced northwest of Stepova Novoselivka (east of Kupyansk).[18] One Russian milblogger claimed that Ukrainian forces recently advanced near Stepova Novoselivka.[19]

Russian forces attacked near Kupyansk itself; northeast of Kupyansk along the international border near Boholivka; north of Kupyansk near Krasne Pershe, Kindrashivka, and Holubivka; and east of Kupyansk near Petropavlivka and Stepova Novoselivka on July 18 and 19.[20]

Order of Battle: Drone operators of the Russian 121st Motorized Rifle Regiment (68th Motorized Rifle Division, 6th Combined Arms Army [CAA], Leningrad Military District [LMD]) are reportedly operating in the Kupyansk direction.[21]

Neither Russian nor Ukrainian sources reportedly activity in the Borova direction on July 19.

Russian forces continued offensive operations in the Lyman direction on July 19 but did not advance.

Russian forces attacked north of Lyman near Novyi Myr; northwest of Lyman near Karpivka and toward Korovii Yar, Serednie, and Shandryholove; northeast of Lyman near Kolodyazi; east of Lyman near Torske; and southeast of Lyman near the Serebryanske forest area on July 18 and 19.[22]

Russian Subordinate Main Effort #3 – Donetsk Oblast (Russian objective: Capture the entirety of Donetsk Oblast, the claimed territory of Russia’s proxies in Donbas, and possibly advance into Dnipropetrovsk Oblast)

Russian forces continued offensive operations in the Siversk direction on July 19 but did not advance.

Russian forces attacked northeast of Siversk near Serebryanka and Hryhorivka and southeast of Siversk near Vyimka on July 18 and 19.[23]

Order of Battle: Elements of the Russian 7th Motorized Rifle Brigade (3rd Combined Arms Army [CAA], formerly 2nd Luhansk People's Republic Army Corps [LNR AC], Southern Military District [SMD]) are reportedly operating near Serebryanka.[24]

Russian forces continued offensive operations in the Chasiv Yar direction on July 19 but did not advance.

Russian forces attacked near Chasiv Yar itself, northeast of Chasiv Yar near Orikhovo-Vasylivka, southwest of Chasiv Yar near Mykolaivka, and south of Chasiv Yar near Bila Hora, Predtechyne, Kurdyumivka, and Andriivka on July 18 and 19.[25]

The spokesperson of a Ukrainian brigade operating in the Chasiv Yar direction stated that Russian forces have regularly changed tactics in the Chasiv Yar direction over the last year (since mid-2024).[26] The spokesperson stated that Russian forces previously conducted intense small infantry group assaults, then leveraged vehicles during favorable weather conditions, and are now resuming small infantry group assaults, occasionally on motorcycles. The spokesperson stated that Russian prisoners of war (POWs) report that newly "mobilized" Russian personnel (likely referring to new recruits) now receive only 24 days of training prior to deploying to Ukraine and that these reinforcements are mainly penal colony recruits or individuals who signed contracts with the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) for financial incentives.

Russian forces continued offensive operations in the Toretsk direction on July 19 but did not make confirmed advances.

Unconfirmed claims: Russian milbloggers claimed that Russian forces seized central Yablunivka (northwest of Toretsk) and advanced into central Shcherbynivka (west of Toretsk) and near Stepanivka (northwest of Toretsk).[27]

Russian forces attacked near Toretsk itself; north of Toretsk near Dyliivka; northwest of Toretsk near Oleksandro-Kalynove, Popiv Yar, Yablunivka, Kalynivka, and Poltavka, and toward Nelipivka and Stepanivka; and west of Toretsk near Shcherbynivka and Novospaske on July 18 and 19.[28] A Russian milblogger claimed that Ukrainian forces counterattacked near Yablunivka and Oleksandro-Kalynove.[29]

A Russian milblogger claimed that Russian forces are using armored and motorized vehicles to support assaults south and southeast of Oleksandro-Kalynove.[30]

Order of Battle: Drone operators of the Russian 39th Motorized Rifle Brigade (68th AC, Eastern Military District [EMD]), 255th Motorized Rifle Regiment (20th Motorized Rifle Division, 8th CAA, SMD), and 238th Artillery Brigade (8th CAA, SMD) are reportedly striking Ukrainian positions near Popiv Yar and Yablunivka.[31]

Ukrainian forces recently advanced in the Pokrovsk direction.

Assessed Ukrainian advances: Geolocated footage published on July 18 indicates that Ukrainian forces recently advanced in northern Mykolaivka (northeast of Pokrovsk).[32]

Unconfirmed claims: A Russian milblogger claimed that Russian forces advanced west of Novoekonomichne (northeast of Pokrovsk).[33]

Russian forces attacked toward Pokrovsk itself; northeast of Pokrovsk near Volodymyrivka, Myrolyubivka, and Novokonomichne and toward Rodynske; east of Pokrovsk toward Myrnohrad; southeast of Pokrovsk near Lysivka; south of Pokrovsk near Novoukrainka, Shevchenko, and Zvirove; and southwest of Pokrovsk near Kotlyne and Udachne and toward Molodetske on July 18 and 19.[34]

Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief General Oleksandr Syrskyi reported on July 18 that Russian forces are mainly focusing attacks on the Pokrovsk and Novopavlivka directions, but that Ukrainian forces are holding despite intensified pressure.[35] Syrskyi reported that Russian forces continue to attack in small fire teams but are unsuccessfully trying to seize Pokrovsk. Syrskyi reported that Ukrainian forces repelled a Russian sabotage and reconnaissance group attempting to break into Pokrovsk on July 18.

Order of Battle: Elements of the Russian Typhoon Detachment of the 506th Motorized Rifle Regiment (27th Motorized Rifle Division, 2nd CAA, Central Military District [CMD]) reportedly continue to operate in the Pokrovsk direction.[36] Drone operators of the Russian AirNomads group are reportedly operating in the Pokrovsk direction.[37]

Russian forces recently advanced in the Novopavlivka direction.

Assessed Russian advances: Geolocated footage published on July 19 indicates that Russian forces recently advanced in northeastern Voskresenka (southwest of Novopavlivka).[38]

Russian forces attacked northeast of Novopavlivka near Novoserhiivka; southeast of Novopavlivka near Horikhove, Dachne, and Oleksiivka; south of Novopavlivka toward Filiya; and southwest of Novopavlivka near Zirka, Piddubne, Myrne, and Voskresenka and toward Oleksandrohrad on July 18 and 19.[39]

The spokesperson of a Ukrainian brigade operating in the Novopavlivka direction reported on July 19 that Russian forces would previously deploy infantry assault groups of four to five, even sometimes six soldiers, but now only deploy fire teams of two to three soldiers to attack Ukrainian positions.[40] The spokesperson reported that Russian forces have stopped using motorcycles in assaults on this sector of the frontline and are now mainly using motorcycles to transport ammunition or personnel and then walking 10 to 15 kilometers to frontline positions for assaults. The spokesperson reported that Russian forces are suffering significant losses in the Novopavlivka direction daily but are replenishing personnel and restoring combat capabilities quickly. The spokesperson reported that the Russian military command engages in barbaric disciplinary measures without regard for subordinates' lives, since reinforcements arrive so often.

Order of Battle: Drone operators of the Russian Maksim Krivonos Battalion (Russian Volunteer Corps) are reportedly striking Ukrainian positions near Novopavlivka, Horikhove, and Mezhova (north of Novopavlivka).[41]

Russian forces continued offensive operations in the Velyka Novosilka direction on July 19 but did not make confirmed advances.

Unconfirmed claims: A Russian milblogger claimed that elements of the Russian 394th Motorized Rifle Regiment and 114th Motorized Rifle Regiment (both of the 127th Motorized Rifle Division, 5th CAA, Eastern Military District [EMD]) began advancing toward Temyrivka (west of Velyka Novosilka).[42]

Russian forces attacked northwest of Velyka Novosilka near Vilne Pole, Maliivka, and Shevchenko and toward Kamyshuvaka and west of Velyka Novosilka near Zelene Pole and Novopil on July 18 and 19.[43]

Russian Supporting Effort – Southern Axis (Russian objective: Maintain frontline positions, secure rear areas against Ukrainian strikes, and advance within tube artillery range of Zaporizhzhia City)

Neither Ukrainian nor Russian sources reported ground activity in the Hulyaipole direction on July 19.

Russian forces continued offensive operations in western Zaporizhia Oblast on July 19 but did not advance.

Unconfirmed claims: The all-Russian pro-Ukrainian Freedom of Russia Legion (LSR) claimed that an LSR sabotage and reconnaissance unit advanced up to 30 kilometers behind Russian positions near occupied Velyka Bilozerka, Zaporizhia Oblast (northwest of occupied Melitopol) on July 17 and killed several members of an unspecified Chechen Akhmat unit.[44]

Russian forces attacked southwest of Orikhiv near Kamyanske on July 18 and 19.[45]

Order of Battle: Elements of the Russian 108th Airborne (VDV) Regiment (7th VDV Division) reportedly continue to operate near Kamyanske.[46] Drone operators of the 14th Spetsnaz Brigade (Russian General Staff's Main Directorate [GRU]), BARS-Sarmat Unmanned Systems Special Purpose Center (formerly BARS-Sarmat Detachment, subordinated to VDV Forces), and Chechen Vostok-Akhmat Battalion reportedly continue to operate in the Zaporizhia direction.[47]

Russian forces continued limited attempts to cross the Dnipro River in the Kherson direction on July 19 but did not advance.

Russian forces attempted to cross the Dnipro River northeast of Kherson City near Kozatskyi Island and toward Sadove and Prydniprovske and southwest of Kherson City near Hola Prystan and toward Dniprovske on July 18 and 19.[48]

A Ukrainian coastal defense brigade operating in the Kherson direction stated on July 18 that it repelled a Russian vessel attempting to advance past Ukrainian positions in an unspecified area of Kherson Oblast.[49]

Order of Battle: Drone operators and artillery of the Russian BARS-33 Detachment (Russian Combat Army Reserve) and drone operators of the 104th Guards Air Assault (VDV) Division are reportedly striking Ukrainian positions on the right (west) bank of the Dnipro River.[50]

Russian Air, Missile, and Drone Campaign (Russian Objective: Target Ukrainian military and civilian infrastructure in the rear and on the frontline)

See topline text.

Significant activity in Belarus (Russian efforts to increase its military presence in Belarus and further integrate Belarus into Russian-favorable frameworks) Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko expanded the Belarusian government's ability to provide additional vehicles and unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) to Belarusian forces during mobilization and wartime.[51] Lukashenko signed a decree on July 18 that authorizes the government to seize any "means of transport," including state vehicles and privately leased vehicles, for military use during wartime. The decree defines "means of transport" as cars, trains, ships, small vessels, UAVs, motorcycles, all-terrain vehicles (ATVs), wheeled tractors, and heavy road building equipment.

Note: ISW does not receive any classified material from any source, uses only publicly available information, and draws extensively on Russian, Ukrainian, and Western reporting and social media as well as commercially available satellite imagery and other geospatial data as the basis for these reports. References to all sources used are provided in the endnotes of each update.