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Iran Update Special Report, June 23, 2025, Evening Edition

Andie Parry, Andie Parry, Ria Reddy, Ria Reddy, Kelly Campa, Kelly Campa, Annika Ganzeveld and Annika Ganzeveld

The Critical Threats Project (CTP) at the American Enterprise Institute and the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) are publishing multiple updates daily to provide analysis on the war with Iran. The morning update will focus on the exchange of fire between Iran and Israel. The evening update will be more comprehensive, covering events over the past 24-hour period and refining items discussed in the morning update.

Click here to see ISW-CTP's interactive map showing the total strikes in Iran since June 12, as well as an interactive timelapse showing the strikes day-by-day.

Key Takeaways

US President Donald Trump announced that Israel and Iran agreed to a ceasefire, beginning the evening of June 23. A senior Iranian official confirmed to Reuters that the ceasefire would occur following Qatari mediation.
Iran conducted a missile attack targeting the US al Udeid Airbase in Qatar in retaliation for the US strikes on the Iranian nuclear program. The attack was largely symbolic and inflicted no casualties or damage, however.
Iranian elite, including some moderate leaders, have reportedly tried to pressure Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei to accept a ceasefire or sideline him entirely. It is unclear what role these individuals played in the US-announced ceasefire.
Iranian Deputy Foreign Affairs Minister for Policy Majid Takht Ravanchi announced that Iran will remain a member of the NPT. Iranian officials have previously threatened to withdraw from the NPT in response to US and Israeli strikes.
IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi confirmed that the United States likely inflicted “very significant damage” in its strikes on the Fordow nuclear site. Iran may have moved some of its nuclear material to undisclosed locations beforehand, however.

NOTE: CTP-ISW will provide further analysis about the ceasefire between Israel and Iran in its June 24 Morning Update.

US President Donald Trump announced that Iran and Israel agreed to a ceasefire that will go into effect at 12:00 AM ET on June 24.[i] Trump said that Iran would adhere to the ceasefire starting at midnight on June 24 and that Israel would join at noon on June 24.[ii] Trump said that the war would officially end at midnight on June 25. Trump congratulated Israel and Iran for “having the stamina, courage, and intelligence” to end the war.[iii] Trump announced the ceasefire five hours after Iran conducted a ballistic missile attack targeting US forces in Qatar. A senior Iranian official confirmed to Reuters that Iran agreed to a Qatar-mediated, US-proposed ceasefire.[iv]

Iran conducted a retaliatory, but largely symbolic, ballistic missile attack targeting a US airbase in Qatar on June 23. Iran launched 14 medium- and short-range ballistic missiles at the United States’ largest position in the Middle East—al Udeid Airbase—just before 1:00 PM ET.[v] The United States and partner forces intercepted 13 missiles and “set free” one missile on a “nonthreatening” trajectory.[vi] Trump confirmed that the Iranian attack did not injure or kill any US servicemembers or Qataris and caused “hardly any damage.”[vii] Iranian Supreme National Security Council Secretary Ali Akbar Ahmadian claimed after the attack that Iran fired one missile at al Udeid Airbase for each bomb that the United States dropped on Iranian nuclear facilities on June 21.[viii] Initial reports claimed that Iran also fired a single short-range ballistic missile targeting US forces at Ain al Asad Airbase in Iraq, but a US military official refuted that claim.[ix]

Iranian leaders appear to have designed the attack to try to reestablish Iranian deterrence vis-a-vis the United States and Israel while simultaneously preventing further escalation. Trump confirmed that the United States received advanced warning of the attack through an Iranian notification to Qatar.[x] A US official confirmed before the strike that the Pentagon was tracking a “credible” threat.[xi] Qatar closed its airspace and the United States and the United Kingdom issued warnings to their citizens in Qatar to seek shelter prior to the strike.[xii] Iran launched 14 missiles at al Udeid Airbase, which is significantly fewer missiles than Iran fired at Israel at the beginning of the war.[xiii] Israeli airstrikes have significantly degraded Iran’s ballistic missile launch capability, which has caused Iran to fire less missiles per salvo than at the start of the conflict.[xiv] It is unclear if IDF strikes have degraded Iran's ability to launch short-range ballistic missiles as it has degraded Iran's ability to launch medium- and long-range missiles.

Iran’s retaliatory attack resembles Iran’s last direct attack on US forces in 2020, but Iran appears to have assumed less risk that the United States would respond forcefully to this attack than it did in its 2020 attack. Iran launched between 15 and 22 ballistic missiles at Ain al Asad Airbase and another US site in Iraq in January 2020 in retaliation for the United States killing former IRGC Quds Force Commander Qassem Soleimani in Baghdad.[xv] The attack injured at least 64 US servicemembers at Ain al Asad Airbase, even though the United States received similar advanced warning that allowed personnel to enter bunkers.[xvi] The Qatari Foreign Ministry confirmed on June 23 that al Udeid Airbase in Qatar “had been evacuated [before the attack],” which suggests that there was limited risk to US servicemembers during the attack.[xvii] Commercially available satellite imagery captured on June 17 showed that unsheltered US aircraft at al Udeid Airbase relocated to an unspecified location, further suggesting that there was limited risk to US assets as well as personnel.[xviii] Iran’s decision to strike an evacuated US base suggests that Iran designed the attack to try to prevent further escalation. Iranian leaders accept a certain level of risk when conducting any attack at US interests that such an attack could harm or kill US servicemembers, however. Trump warned prior to the Iranian attack on al Udeid Airbase that the United States would respond to Iran if it harmed US personnel.

US President Donald Trump indicated that the United States will not respond to Iran’s retaliatory strike.[xix] Trump said after the Iranian attack on June 23 that “it is time for peace.”[xx] Several unspecified US officials speaking to Western media emphasized that Trump does not want to respond to the strike and wants to pursue a deal with Iran.[xxi] Trump chose not to respond to Iran’s attack on Ain al Asad Airbase in 2020.[xxii]

Senior Israeli defense officials told an Israeli Army Radio correspondent on June 23 that Israel will increase strikes on Iran in the coming days in order to rapidly achieve its war aims.[xxiii] This report was published before Trump announced the Iran-Israel ceasefire. Israel will start adhering to the Iran-Israel ceasefire at 12:00 PM ET on June 23. The unspecified defense officials said that Israel seeks to fully achieve its objectives in Iran “within a few days.”[xxiv] Israel launched its air campaign on June 12 to “degrade, destroy, and remove [the] threat” of weaponization of the Iranian nuclear program.[xxv] Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said on June 22 that Israel was “very, very close” to achieving these aims.[xxvi] Israeli and Arab officials told the Wall Street Journal on June 23that Israel intends to “get through” a list of Iranian military targets in the coming days.[xxvii] Senior Israeli officials have emphasized that Israel would continue its air campaign if Iran attacks Israel or if Israel “sees [Iran] is trying to reconstitute.[xxviii]

Iranian Regime Survival

There appear to be internal fissures within the Iranian regime over how to respond to the conflict with the United States and Israel. Opposition media reported on June 21 that former moderate Iranian President Hassan Rouhani reportedly met with senior clerics in Qom in recent days to persuade them to pressure Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei to concede to key US and Israeli demands, including the suspension of uranium enrichment.[xxix] The clerics included Mousa Shobeyri, Hossein Vahid Khorasani, and Nasser Makarem Shirazi. Rouhani framed the meetings as an effort to “save” the Islamic Republic. It is unclear how the clerics responded to Rouhani’s requests. IRGC-affiliated media claimed on June 19 that a “few suspicious and disreputable” individuals within the regime were trying to convince clerics in Qom to push for a compromise with Israel.[xxx] Rouhani as well as Supreme Leader adviser Ali Larijani and Expediency Discernment Council head Sadegh Amoli Larijani have reportedly unsuccessfully tried to contact Khamenei in recent days to advocate for renewed negotiations with the United States.[xxxi] Ali Larijani’s reported support for negotiations is notable given that he made threats to US forces in the region in a post on X on June 23.[xxxii]

Unspecified Iranian leaders have reportedly developed a contingency plan to govern Iran without Khamenei in the event that Khamenei is killed or informally sidelined.[xxxiii] The individuals developing this plan have agreed that a leadership committee would functionally replace Khamenei and negotiate a ceasefire with the United States and Israel. The individuals have considered Rouhani for a “key role” in the leadership committee. Some military officials involved in the plan have engaged Gulf countries to try to gain support for such political change in Iran. It is very notable that senior Iranian military, political, and religious leaders are discussing a potential post-Khamenei leadership structure in Iran. Reuters reported on June 23 that there have been increased efforts to appoint a successor for Khamenei, citing five insiders with knowledge of the discussions.[xxxiv] These efforts suggest that senior officials are highly concerned about the stability of the regime and seek to ensure regime survival in the event that Khamenei is killed or removed.

Israeli Strikes on Iran

The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) has continued to target Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) and Iranian internal security institutions in Tehran since CTP-ISW's last data cutoff at 5:00 AM ET on June 23. The IDF conducted airstrikes targeting the IRGC Ground Forces Imam Hassan Mojtaba Provincial Unit in Karaj, Alborz Province, on June 23.[xxxv] The IDF also conducted airstrikes targeting the IRGC Ground Forces Seyyed ol Shohada Provincial Unit and the Mohammad Rasoul Ollah Provincial Unit in Tehran on June 23.[xxxvi] The IDF reported that the Seyyed ol Shohada Provincial Unit is responsible for defending Iranian territory and suppressing internal unrest.[xxxvii] The IRGC Ground Forces have historically played a role in suppressing internal dissent.[xxxviii] The Mohammad Rasoul Ollah Provincial Unit oversees security in Tehran Province, while the Seyyed ol Shohada Provincial Unit oversees security in Tehran City. The IDF also struck the Law Enforcement Command (LEC) “Information Security Command” in northern Tehran City, which likely refers to the LEC Information Protection Organization.[xxxix] The LEC is the premier Iranian internal security and law enforcement service.[xl] Its chief mission is to conduct ordinary police activities and ensure regime stability.[xli]

The IDF issued an evacuation order on June 23 to residents in Tehran’s Seventh District.[xlii] The IDF informed residents to leave the area and not return for several hours.[xliii] The IDF has previously issued evacuation orders in Tehran before striking Iranian military infrastructure.[xliv]

The IDF conducted a series of strikes in western Iran on June 22 targeting Iranian underground military infrastructure, ballistic missile storage facilities, and a drone storage facility.[xlv] The IDF said that 15 Israeli fighter jets conducted the strikes.[xlvi] The Israeli Air Force (IAF) also struck a ballistic missile launcher that was aimed at Israel, according to an Israeli military correspondent.[xlvii] The IAF has conducted five waves of strikes in Iran on June 23 using approximately 200 munitions.[xlviii]

Israeli Intelligence Operations

The Washington Post revealed that Israel conducted an intelligence operation to intimidate and divide senior Iranian military officials as part of its campaign against Iran.[xlix] Persian-speaking Israeli intelligence operatives called more than 20 senior Iranian leaders on their cellphones after Israel killed key Iranian military leaders on June 13.[l] The Israeli intelligence operatives threatened to kill Iranian leaders and their families unless they ceased their support for the Iranian regime and Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei.[li] In an audio recording obtained by the Washington Post, an Israeli intelligence operative called an unspecified senior IRGC official and told the official that he and his family would be killed unless he sent a video disavowing the Iranian regime to the Israeli intelligence operative within 12 hours.[lii] Three unspecified Israeli sources told the Washington Post that the official is still believed to be alive and that the primary objective of the operation was to deter and confuse Iranian leadership.[liii]

Iranian Nuclear Program

Iranian Deputy Foreign Affairs Minister for Political Affairs Majid Takht Ravanchi stated on June 23 that Iran will remain a member of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT).[liv] Iranian officials have threatened to withdraw from the NPT in response to US and Israeli attacks on Iranian nuclear facilities.[lv] Iran ratified the NPT, which prohibits nuclear weaponization, in 1970 and has repeatedly threatened to withdraw from the treaty to impose pressure on the West.[lvi]

International Atomic Energy Agency Director General Rafael Grossi stated on June 23 that the Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant in Qom Province likely sustained “very significant damage” as a result of the June 21 US strikes.[lvii] The chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff stated that Fordow, Natanz, and an unspecified nuclear facility in Esfahan sustained “extreme damage” from the US strikes.[lviii] Grossi stated that “given the explosive payload utilized, and the extreme vibration-sensitive nature of centrifuges, very significant damage is expected to have occurred” at Fordow.[lix] Grossi stated that buildings used for uranium conversion and tunnel entrances used for storing enriched material were damaged at the Esfahan site. Uranium conversion facilities convert uranium concentrate to a gas that can be enriched in centrifuges. The Institute for Science and International Security similarly reported that US airstrikes damaged at least three tunnel entrances leading to underground facilities at the Esfahan site.[lx] The institute reported that Iran “backfilled” these entrances ahead of US strikes, likely in an effort to contain an explosion or prevent the dispersion of hazardous material, citing satellite imagery from June 20. Grossi said that US strikes also targeted the Fuel Enrichment Plant at Natanz.[lxi] Israeli airstrikes previously destroyed the Pilot Fuel Enrichment Plant and likely damaged or destroyed several thousand centrifuges at Natanz.[lxii]

Iran may have moved some materials from its nuclear facilities to other locations ahead of US or Israeli strikes. Iranian Foreign Affairs Minister Abbas Araghchi sent Grossi a letter on June 13 in which he stated that Iran would “adopt special measures to protect our nuclear equipment and materials.”[lxiii] Israeli officials told the New York Times on June 22 that Iran may have moved materials and equipment from Fordow ahead of the US strikes.[lxiv] CTP-ISW reported in its June 23 Morning Update that Israel conducted airstrikes on June 23 targeting roads leading to Fordow in order to “disrupt” access to the site, which may prevent Iran from being able to assess damage at Fordow or move materials from the site to other locations.[lxv]

Iranian Attacks on Israel

Iran has not launched any drones or ballistic missiles at Israel since CTP-ISW's last data cutoff at 5:00 AM ET on June 23. Iran fired six or seven missiles across at least four waves of attacks targeting Israel overnight on June 22 and 23.[lxvi] An Iranian missile impacted near a power station in Ashdod and another missile or fragment landed near Safed.[lxvii]

Russia and Iran

Iranian Foreign Affairs Minister Abbas Araghchi met with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow on June 23, reportedly to request Russian assistance for Iran. An Iranian delegation led by Araghchi met with Putin, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, Presidential Aide Yuri Ushakov, and Chief of the General Staff's Main Directorate Igor Kostykov.[lxviii] Iranian Ambassador to Russia Kazem Jalali and Deputy Foreign Minister for International and Legal Affairs Kazem Gharibabadi also attended the meeting.[lxix] An unspecified senior source told Reuters that Araghchi was expected to deliver a letter from Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei to Putin that sought “more help” from Russia.[lxx] Unspecified Iranian sources said that Iran has been unsatisfied with Russian support for Iran against the United States and Israel.[lxxi] Putin stated that Russia is “making efforts” to assist Iran, according to a Kremlin readout.[lxxii] Putin also said that “unprovoked” attacks against Iran have “no justification.”[lxxiii] Iran's reported dissatisfaction with Russian support likely reflects Russian constraints in its ability to provide direct support to Iran due to its war in Ukraine and also showcases the immediate limitations of the Russo-Iranian strategic relationship.[lxxiv] Iran and Russia’s recent Comprehensive Strategic Partnership Agreement notably lacks a mutual defense clause.[lxxv] Russia has likely resigned itself to providing diplomatic overtures and declarations of support for Iran, which underscores the limited benefits that Russia can provide its partners as it focuses on fighting Ukraine.[lxxvi]

[i] https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/114734934153569653

[ii] https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/114734934153569653

[iii] https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/114734934153569653

[iv] https://x.com/phreuters/status/1937284123392880694?s=46

[v] https://www.nytimes.com/live/2025/06/23/world/iran-trump-israel-news/fc472102-f584-50ca-be52-6fe0dbdc8b1c?smid=url-share ; https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/114734424268466099 ; https://www.cnn.com/world/live-news/israel-iran-us-strikes-06-23-25-intl-hnk#cmc9e0cuc000u3b6usd1485nm

[vi] https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/114734424268466099 ; https://www.nytimes.com/live/2025/06/23/world/iran-trump-israel-news/b1047d13-0d56-50d7-9ccc-8c2237ae9b2c?smid=url-share ; https://x.com/MOD_Qatar/status/1937196986970546600

[vii] https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/114734431573760700 ; https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/114734424268466099

[viii] https://x.com/Mostafa_Najafii/status/1937195436906844664

[ix] https://x.com/timourazhari/status/1937208526461366376 ; https://x.com/MarioLeb79/status/1937192269347742076 ; https://x.com/timourazhari/status/1937193066412278126 ; https://www.cnn.com/world/live-news/israel-iran-us-strikes-06-23-25-intl-hnk#cmc9df6p6000b3b6u30xke1dq

[x] https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/114734424268466099

[xi] https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/iran-israel-us-latest-news/card/iran-positions-missile-launchers-for-potential-attack-on-u-s-forces-officials-say-GcFCipf7h65viawsRVSv

[xii] https://qa.usembassy.gov/security-alert-shelter-in-place-june-23/ ; https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/us-embassy-qatar-recommends-sheltering-place-qatar-says-situation-stable-2025-06-23/ ; https://www.bbc.com/news/live/cn7ze4vmk2pt?post=asset%3Ac7d71799-8fec-42fa-8e30-ad2348b58461#post

[xiii] https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-special-report-june-15-2025-evening-edition

[xiv] https://x.com/AmitSegal/status/1937203900873916784 ; https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-special-report-june-14-2025-morning-edition

[xv] https://www.csis.org/analysis/uncomfortable-lessons-reassessing-irans-missile-attack

[xvi] https://www.cnn.com/2020/01/11/middleeast/iran-strike-al-asad-air-base-exclusive-intl ; https://www.csis.org/analysis/uncomfortable-lessons-reassessing-irans-missile-attack

[xvii] https://x.com/majedalansari/status/1937196615128764606

[xviii] https://x.com/GeoPoliticJosh/status/1935230318933631377 ; https://www.cnn.com/world/live-news/israel-iran-us-strikes-06-23-25-intl-hnk#cmc9dfii100173b703ubv2dta

[xix] https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/114734462054466468

[xx] https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/114734462054466468

[xxi] https://www.axios.com/2025/06/23/trump-iran-missile-attack-response ; https://x.com/davidmakovsky/status/1937208482131849647?s=46&t=EGYcIyXosW6lVJmixq2r5Q

[xxii] https://x.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1214739853025394693 ; https://edition.cnn.com/2020/01/07/politics/rockets-us-airbase-iraq

[xxiii] https://x.com/Doron_Kadosh/status/1937031994166133195

[xxiv] https://x.com/Doron_Kadosh/status/1937031994166133195

[xxv] https://x.com/manniefabian/status/1933420882162016634 ; https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/a-battered-iran-signals-it-wants-to-de-escalate-hostilities-with-israel-and-negotiate-9feab4ae?mod=hp_lead_pos1

[xxvi] https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/iran-tries-to-buy-time-to-weigh-its-response-to-u-s-strikes-2c3d97be?msockid=31724c4845486561027c583141486b0b

[xxvii] https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/iran-israel-us-latest-news/card/israel-seeks-an-end-to-fighting-with-iran-soon-bijK6KrvRZnWxiwhlQ6Z

[xxviii] https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/iran-israel-us-latest-news/card/israel-seeks-an-end-to-fighting-with-iran-soon-bijK6KrvRZnWxiwhlQ6Z

[xxix] https://iranwire.com/en/features/142441-irans-senior-clerics-stay-silent-amid-war-as-former-president-seeks-compromise/

[xxx] https://www.iranintl.com/202506194418

[xxxi] https://iranwire.com/en/news/142494-exclusive-senior-officials-cannot-reach-khamenei-ali-larijani-wants-to-rescue-iran/

[xxxii] https://x.com/alilarijani_ir/status/1937204964193108120

[xxxiii] https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2025/06/inside-plot-push-khamenei-aside/683286/