Iran Update Special Report, June 16, 2025, Evening Edition

Information Cutoff: 6:00 PM ET

The Critical Threats Project (CTP) at the American Enterprise Institute and the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) will be publishing multiple updates per day to provide insights into the ongoing strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities, military infrastructure, and key military and nuclear program leadership. We will continue to produce Iran Update special editions until the strikes conclude. We will prioritize covering Iranian and Iranian-sponsored activities in response to the attacks that threaten US forces and interests.   

Iran has maintained its negotiating position on its nuclear program during the Israeli campaign, meaning that Iran does not appear willing to negotiate an end to the Iran-Israel War yet. Western media reported on June 16 that Iran is seeking to “de-escalate tensions” and quoted Arab officials who said that Iranian officials said that Tehran is open to returning to negotiations if the United States does not join the strike.[i] Arab “intermediaries” said that Iran is “not ready to make concessions in nuclear talks,” however.[ii] Public statements from Iranian leaders support this claim by Arab intermediaries. Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian continued to threaten “severe” responses if the United States failed to restrain Israel and separately defended Iran’s “right” to peaceful nuclear energy and research.[iii] The Iranian parliament also began to build a proposal to leave the Non-Proliferation Treaty.[iv] These responses are presumably non-starters for the United States and Israel. An unspecified Israeli official said prior to the strikes that Iran must end its uranium enrichment at a minimum, which is a position that the Trump administration has also maintained during the negotiations.[v]

Other reports appear to dispute the assertions by these Arab officials. An unspecified regional source and “an official briefed on” Iran-Gulf Arab communications claimed that Iran would return to nuclear talks if a ceasefire were reached and if Iran is allowed to "finish its response" to Israeli strikes.[vi] An unspecified Iranian official also said Iran is “willing to be flexible“ in negotiations.[vii] These demands in practice ask Israel to stand down and defend against a final Iranian attack without Iran facing the threat of an Israeli response. It is not clear why or if Israel would agree to such an arrangement.

An unspecified Iranian diplomat shared a personal, unofficial message with an Iranian diaspora publication that claimed Iranian leaders are willing to “give up uranium enrichment to preserve the regime.”[viii] These statements do not reflect official Iranian government positions. The diplomat claimed that the Artesh and IRGC will “lose control of the situation” and that the regime is “ready to negotiate” if it can achieve “face-saving solutions.” He said that he was not speaking as a representative of the Iranian government.

Iran likely calculates that it can impose costs on Israel for Israel’s campaign against Iran, but Iran’s attacks have been mostly ineffective and do not appear to be influencing Israeli decision making. Iranian officials have continued to threaten a “severe response” to Israeli strikes. Iranian officials appear to design these statements to deter Israel by suggesting Iran can impose costs on Israel, but the lack of Iranian success in actually doing so will presumably diminish the deterrent effect of the statements over time. Iranian missile and drone attacks on Israel have not achieved strategic effects that would influence Israeli decision making. The lack of Iranian success in imposing costs on Israel will presumably further diminish the deterrent effect of the statements over time.

Iran’s calculations about continuing the war may change in the coming weeks as Israeli strikes expand and threaten the regime. An Israeli outlet reported that Russian President Vladimir Putin told the Iranian supreme leader that the survival of the Iranian regime is under threat.[ix] Putin made the call after a conversation with US President Donald Trump about Russian mediation between Iran and Israel. Israeli strikes have recently expanded to target Iranian internal security and social control institutions, which could threaten regime stability. The current Israeli strikes are probably the most serious threat to regime survival that the Iranian regime has faced since 1979. The supreme leader and his allies could conclude that offering concessions and ending uranium enrichment is necessary if it saves the regime.

The United States is deploying new forces to the Middle East as part of a buildup to be closer to the Middle East and “provide options to defend US assets and interests.”[x] A US official told Western media on June 16 that the USS Nimitz carrier strike group is en route to the Middle East from the South China Sea, and it is ahead of schedule.[xi] The US Air Force is also moving “a large number” of refueling tanker aircraft to Europe to be closer to the Middle East, according to a US official.[xii] Flight tracking data from June 15 confirmed that at least 21 tankers have left the United States and started to move towards Europe.[xiii]

Key Takeaways

• Iran has reportedly maintained its uncompromising position regarding nuclear talks, meaning that it is not yet ready to negotiate an end to the war with Israel. Other reports have indicated that Iran may grant concessions if it is allowed to fully retaliate against Israel.
• The United States is deploying additional forces to the Middle East to “provide options to defend US assets and interests.” These forces include a carrier strike group and a high number of refueling tanker aircraft.
• The IAEA indicated that Israeli strikes have likely damaged or destroyed thousands of centrifuges at the Natanz nuclear site. The Fordow site remains largely unscathed, however, according to the IAEA.
• The Iranian capacity to conduct missile operations is likely degraded. The IDF has likely destroyed around a third of the Iranian missile launchers. Iran has also used between a third and half of its missiles that can reach Israel.
• The IDF struck the IRIB headquarters in Iran likely to degrade the Iranian capacity to produce propaganda and shape the information environment. This came after the IDF began striking other regime institutions and energy infrastructure.

International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) battle damage assessments indicate that Israeli strikes likely damaged or destroyed several thousand centrifuges at Natanz.[xiv] Satellite imagery confirmed that Israeli airstrikes destroyed the Pilot Fuel Enrichment Plant (PFEP) and damaged electrical substations and support buildings critical to power supply across the facility.[xv] IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi told BBC that there is a “great probability” that approximately 14,000 operational centrifuges located at one of the underground halls have been “severely damaged if not destroyed altogether” due to the “sudden loss of external power.”[xvi] Grossi stated that there has been “very little or no damage” at Fordow. The Fordow site is especially hardened against strikes, as much of the facility extends deep underground.

CTP-ISW has refined our previous June 14 assessment that Israel likely struck a building in the northeastern corner of Natanz. Higher-resolution imagery published by Maxar on June 15 shows no damage in that area of the facility (see below).

Israeli airstrikes have reportedly destroyed approximately one-third of Iran’s ballistic missile stockpiles and launchers. Israel Defense Forces (IDF) Spokesperson Effie Defrin stated that the IDF has destroyed one-third of Iran’s ballistic missile launch capabilities.[xvii] The IDF Air Force said that it has destroyed more than 120 missile launchers since the beginning of Israel’s operations.[xviii] Israeli officials also said that Iran has fired a total of 370 ballistic missiles at Israel as of June 16 at 10:12 am ET, with approximately 30 to 40 missiles in each barrage.[xix] Iran reportedly had between 750 and 1,000 ballistic missiles capable of hitting Israel prior to the conflict, which suggests that Iran has expended nearly half or a third of this ballistic missile stockpile.[xx] Iran’s missile barrages are notably smaller than its previous attack on Israel in October 2024, when Iran launched approximately 100 missiles per barrage.[xxi] Israeli attacks on its missile launchers and bases are likely hampering Iran’s ability to launch large barrages.

The Israeli strikes on June 13 and 15 did not cause any noticeable damage to missile facilities in Shiraz, Fars Province.[xxii] Commercially available satellite imagery captured on June 15 showed active fires and burned vegetation in and around the missile facility. The satellite imagery shows no signs of destroyed buildings or vehicles at the sites. Missile facilities in Shiraz reportedly manufactured, repaired, and stored Iranian ballistic missiles. [xxiii]

Israel also struck the Shiraz electronics facility on June 14 and 15.[xxiv] Commercially available satellite imagery captured on June 15 showed large plumes of black smoke coming from the facility. The facility reportedly produces radar and electronic equipment for the Iranian military, including the Qamar 3-D search and control radar system for air navigation systems and electronic warfare.[xxv]

Israel struck Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) missile facilities in Kermanshah, Kermanshah Province, on June 13.[xxvi] Commercially available satellite imagery captured on June 15 shows damage to multiple missile storage buildings and vehicle tunnel entrances, which were likely used to store ballistic missiles and other related equipment. Kermanshah is one of Iran’s oldest ballistic missile bases.[xxvii]

Israel struck the Bid Ganeh missile facility in Tehran Province on June 13 and 14.[xxviii]  Commercially available satellite imagery captured on June 15 shows that the Israeli strikes destroyed multiple buildings at the facility. The Bid Ganeh site likely stored medium-range ballistic missiles, according to a missile expert.[xxix] Some of the containers mounted on the trucks in the satellite imagery of Bid Ganeh are 17m long, which is long enough to transport many medium-range ballistic missiles.

Israel struck the Khorramabad missile base in Khorramabad, Lorestan Province, on June 14.[xxx] An Israeli analyst posted satellite imagery on June 16 that shows that the Israeli strike damaged several storage, missile launch, and administrative buildings at the base.[xxxi] The site reportedly contained multiple launchers and storage tunnels for ballistic and cruise missiles.[xxxii]

The IDF targeted the Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting (IRIB) headquarters in Tehran Province on June 16.[xxxiii] The strike occurred shortly after the IDF issued an evacuation warning for the Tehran Municipal 3rd District.[xxxiv] The IRIB headquarters is located in the 3rd Municipal District in northeastern Tehran.[xxxv] Online footage showed the anchor fleeing mid-broadcast as the studio filled with debris and smoke.[xxxvi] An IRIB employee claimed that at least four bombs hit the main building.[xxxvii] Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz stated before the strike on the IRIB building that the “Iranian propaganda” and “incitement mouthpiece is on its way to disappear.”[xxxviii] Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei directly appoints the IRIB directors, which underscores the broadcaster’s role as a high-level state propaganda instrument.[xxxix] The US Treasury sanctioned the IRIB and added it to the Specially Designated National (SDN) list in 2013.[xl]

Israel continued to target IRGC and Artesh Air Force positions in Tehran Province on June 16. The IDF targeted an IRGC position in Chitgar, northwestern Tehran, on June 16.[xli] The IDF separately targeted Iranian F-14 Tomcats that were on the ground at the Mehrabad Airport on June 16.[xlii] The IDF likely targeted the Iran Helicopter Support and Renewal Company (PANHA) that operates under the Iranian Ministry of Defense as part of the Aerospace Industries Organization.[xliii] The United States sanctioned PANHA in 2018 for providing maintenance, overhaul, and manufacturing support for military helicopters used by Iranian Armed Forces.[xliv]

IRGC-affiliated media reported on June 16 that the IDF targeted IRGC and Artesh positions in Markazi and Qom provinces.[xlv] Iranian media reported that an Israeli strike on the Hazrat-e Ruhollah Unit in Khomein, Markazi Province, killed six IRGC personnel and two Basij fighters.[xlvi] The strike also killed five members of the Artesh Hazrat-e Masoumeh Air Defense Group and three IRGC Aerospace Force personnel.[xlvii] The Hazrat-e Masoumeh air defense site is responsible for protecting Fordow nuclear facility and is located roughly 16 km east of the Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant (FFEP).[xlviii] Iranian media previously reported on June 13 that an IDF strike killed two Artesh personnel at the Hazrat-e Masoumeh air defense site.[xlix]  Iranian media also reported that an Israeli airstrike killed two Artesh air defense officers at Khondab Air Defense Group in Khondab, Markazi Province, on June 15.[l] This unit is likely tasked with protecting the IR-40 Heavy Water Reactor nearby. Khatam ol Anbia Air Defense Headquarters Commander Brigadier General Alireza Sabahi Fard and former IRGC Aerospace Force Commander Brigadier General Amir Ali Hajizadeh previously inspected the Khondab Air Defense Group on April 24.[li] Iranian media separately reported that recent IDF strikes on June 16 killed 22 Iranian armed forces personnel in Lorestan Province.[lii]

The IDF has continued to target Iranian military and weapons infrastructure across Iran, likely to further degrade Iran’s retaliatory capabilities. The IAF reportedly conducted preemptive strikes targeting missile launchers that Iran was planning to use in imminent strikes against Israel.[liii] The IAF struck a vehicle that was moving ballistic missiles and other unspecified weapons on the Tehran-Qom highway.[liv] CTP-ISW previously reported on June 15 that the IDF struck a missile fuel production facility in Garmsar, Semnan Province, on June 15.[lv] Iranian dissident organization Mojahedin-e Khalq (MEK) previously claimed that Iran conducted covert nuclear activities at this facility.[lvi]

Iran has conducted two ballistic missile attacks targeting Israel since CTP-ISW's 6:00 AM ET data cutoff on June 16.[lvii] Iran reportedly launched between ten to twelve ballistic missiles targeting northern Israel, including Haifa, in the first barrage.[lviii] This attack was smaller than previous Iranian barrages, which have typically involved 30 to 40 missiles.[lix] The attack may have been smaller in scale as a result of the IDF’s targeting of Iranian mobile launchers and static launch facilities, as noted above. Israeli air defense systems intercepted all the Iranian missiles, according to open-source watchers on social media.[lx] Remnants of an Iranian missile fell over the town of Safed in northern Israel but it caused no casualties.[lxi]

Iran struck the Bazan Oil Refinery in Haifa on June 15, killing three people and damaging pipelines at the facility.[lxii] New satellite imagery shows damage to a section of an oil pipeline after two Iranian ballistic missile strikes on June 15.[lxiii] The strikes subsequently caused all the oil refinery facilities to shut down, according to the Bazan Group.[lxiv] Reports earlier in the day indicated that two Iranian missiles struck Haifa Power Plant.[lxv] This was likely referring to the strikes at the Bazan Oil Refinery.

An IRGC spokesperson said that Iran has launched over 545 drones at Israel since June 13.[lxvi] CTP-ISW has recorded zero drone impacts in Israel. Iran initially launched about 100 drones at Israel on June 13, all of which failed to enter Israeli airspace.[lxvii] The IDF intercepted several drones that crossed into Israeli territory on June 16.[lxviii] The IDF announced that some of the drones were shot down over the Golan Heights, according to an Israeli military correspondent.[lxix] It is unclear what group launched the drones over the Golan Heights. The purpose of strike packages that combine ballistic missiles and slower-moving drones is to have the slower drones distract Israeli air defenses to enable the much faster and harder to shoot down ballistic missiles to penetrate the air defense network. Russia has employed a similar tactic against Ukraine.

The IDF intercepted a ballistic missile launched from Yemen on June 16 before it entered Israeli airspace.[lxx]  The Houthis have targeted Israel with several drones and ballistic missiles since Israel‘s initial attacks on Iran on June 12.[lxxi] Several Houthi leaders have also called on Arab countries to support the Iranian response since June 13.[lxxii] Houthi attacks are not an inflection or new constraint on air defense bandwidth for Israel because the Houthis have regularly targeted Israel with drones and missiles since November 2024.[lxxiii] These attacks do further constrain Israeli air defense bandwidth when combined with Iranian attacks, however. The Houthis have not claimed the June 16 attack at the time of this writing.

Iraqi media and open-source analysts are reporting that the United States has intercepted two one-way attacks drones near the US consulate in Erbil, Iraqi Kurdistan, since June 15.[lxxiv] It is unclear at this time if the drones were targeting the consulate or intended for another target like Israel. Iran has consistently targeted Israel with one-way attack drones since the Israeli air campaign began on June 12.[lxxv] No group has claimed responsibility for either drone attack at the time of this writing. US President Donald Trump stated on June 15 that the US military would react with ”full strength” if the United States is attacked by Iran.[lxxvi]  An official from Iranian-backed Iraqi militia Harakat Hezbollah al Nujaba said on June 16 that the “resistance” will not stand “idly by” as Israel strikes Iran.[lxxvii] The official’s statement comes after Iranian-backed Iraqi militia Kataib Hezbollah threatened to attack US forces and other unspecified targets in the region if the United States intervenes in the conflict.[lxxviii]