Iran Update Special Report, June 22, 2025, Evening Edition

Information Cutoff: 5:00 PM ET

The Critical Threats Project (CTP) at the American Enterprise Institute and the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) are publishing multiple updates daily to provide analysis on the war with Iran. The morning update will focus on the exchange of fire between Iran and Israel. The evening update will be more comprehensive, covering events over the past 24-hour period and refining items discussed in the morning update.

Click here to see ISW-CTP's interactive map showing the total strikes in Iran since June 12, as well as an interactive timelapse showing the strikes day-by-day.

Key Takeaways

• Iranian leaders uncharacteristically gave no explicit vow of retaliation against the United States. The closest was an IRGC statement warning of “regrettable responses.” This absence of coordinated threats may reflect the extent to which Iranian leaders are struggling to communicate with one another, as they isolate themselves to evade Israeli strikes.
• Iranian Foreign Affairs Minister Abbas Araghchi will travel to Moscow and meet with Russian President Vladimir Putin on June 23. The Kremlin condemned the US strikes and issued veiled threats that are likely meant to stoke panic among Western audiences, including key decision makers.
• Israel continued its strike campaign against Iran, targeting missile, drone, and air defense capabilities. One of the strikes targeted equipment that Iran uses to produce solid fuel for ballistic missiles, which will likely disrupt further the Iranian ability to reconstitute its degraded missile forces.

Russia condemned the recent US strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities on June 22 amid reports that Iranian Foreign Affairs Minister Abbas Araghchi will meet with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow on June 23. The Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MFA) condemned the US strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities on June 22.[i] The Russian MFA claimed that the US strikes are a violation of the UN Charter and that the UN Security Council is obliged to respond.[ii] Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov stated that the world will descend into chaos if countries are allowed to interpret the right to self-defense in the UN Charter as they wish.[iii] Lavrov claimed that the US strikes marked a new, dangerous escalation during a phone call with Hungarian Foreign Minister Péter Szijjártó on June 22.[iv] CEO of the Russian Direct Investment Fund (RDIF) and Presidential Special Representative for Investment and Economic Cooperation with Foreign Countries, Kirill Dmitriev, claimed on June 22 that Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi is en route to Moscow and will meet with Putin on June 23.[v]

Russian Security Council Deputy Chairperson Dmitry Medvedev issued a series of veiled threats against the United States, but these threats do not represent a significant rhetorical inflection because the Kremlin commonly uses Medvedev to stoke panic and fear among Western decision makers.[vi] Medvedev responded to the US strike in social media posts, including on his English-language channels, on June 22 by claiming that US President Donald Trump has started a new war.[vii] Medvedev also claimed that the United States failed to destroy Iran's nuclear capabilities, that Iran will continue to work towards the production of nuclear weapons, and that several unspecified countries are ready to "directly supply" Iran with nuclear warheads. The Kremlin typically leverages Medvedev to amplify narratives intended to stoke panic and fear among Western decision makers, particularly through nuclear saber rattling.[viii] Medvedev's veiled threats thus do not represent a significant rhetorical inflection. CTP-ISW continues to assess that Russia is constrained in its ability to provide direct support to Iran due to its war in Ukraine and has likely resigned itself to providing diplomatic overtures for the time being, showcasing the immediate limitations in the Russo-Iranian strategic relationship.[ix]

The Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) implicitly threatened to attack US bases in the region in retaliation for US strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities.[x] The IRGC released a statement on June 22 warning the United States that it should “expect regrettable responses.”[xi] The IRGC said that the “number, dispersion, and size” of US bases in the region has “doubled [the US’] vulnerability.”[xii] Iran has previously attacked US forces in the region in response to US military action against Iran.[xiii] Iranian media have widely circulated the IRGC statement as well as other threats to attack US interests in the region.[xiv] A large majority of the sources are inaccessible because Iran has reportedly imposed a ”near-total internet blackout” across the country.[xv] An outlet affiliated with a cultural and ideological organization subordinate to the supreme leader posted a graphic on X outlining steps Iran could take in retaliation for US strikes.[xvi] The graphic included Iranian attacks on US bases, activation of the Axis of Resistance, cyber-attacks on US infrastructure, and efforts to disrupt global markets. CTP-ISW reported in its June 22 Morning Update that the Iranian parliament conditionally approved a measure to close the Strait of Hormuz, which would disrupt international shipping.[xvii] The Supreme National Security Council still needs to issue a final approval.

The United States will reportedly not conduct additional strikes in Iran unless Iran or its proxies retaliate against US interests. The United States struck three key Iranian nuclear facilities on June 21.[xviii] These strikes aimed to destroy Iran’s nuclear enrichment capacity, and US President Donald Trump said that the strikes were successful.[xix] Additional US strikes targeting other strategic sites in Iran would suggest an expansion of US objectives in the conflict.  US President Donald Trump warned on June 21 that “there are many targets left” and stated that ”future attacks will be far greater” if Iran does not “make peace.”[xx]  A US official similarly told Axios that Trump is ready to resume strikes on Iran if Iran retaliates against US forces. [xxi]  US Secretary of State Marco Rubio echoed these comments and said that the United States currently has no plans for additional attacks if Iran does not ”mess around."[xxii] Rubio said that the Trump administration is prepared to "impose costs on Iran if they attack American personnel” either directly or through the Axis of Resistance.[xxiii]    An Israeli official told Axios the United States has communicated that it is ”done” with its planned strikes but that US officials ”do [not] mind” if Israel continues its air campaign in Iran.[xxiv]

Several Iranian-backed militias have released statements condemning the US airstrikes against Iranian nuclear facilities, but have not claimed any retaliatory attacks against the United States at the time of this writing. Hamas, Hezbollah, and the Houthis released separate statements denouncing US strikes against Iranian nuclear facilities.[xxv] These statements followed threats by several Iranian-backed militias to attack US forces if the United States participated in the Iran-Israel war. The Houthis threatened on June 21 that any US involvement in the Iran-Israel war would trigger Houthi attacks on   in the Red Sea.[xxvi] Iranian-backed Iraqi militia Kataib Hezbollah also threatened on June 19 that US participation in the war would trigger attacks on US bases in the region, for example.[xxvii]

The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) continued to target Iranian ballistic missile and drone capabilities on June 22. The IDF conducted a series of strikes targeting several Iranian military assets near Yazd City in central Iran.[xxviii] The IDF Air Force conducted airstrikes targeting the Imam Hussein strategic missile base on June 22, which reportedly housed long-range Khorramshahr ballistic missiles in underground tunnels.[xxix] IRGC-affiliated media reportedly posted footage of Iran launching Khorramshahr-4 missiles with a cluster munition warhead being launched toward Israel, and claimed it was the first Khorramshahr-4 that Iran has launched.[xxx] The missile base had fired approximately 60 ballistic missiles at Israel, according to an Israeli military correspondent.[xxxi] The IDF Air Force’s strikes on the Imam Hussein headquarters were the longest-range strike Israel has conducted since the conflict began, with Israeli jets traveling 2,200 kilometers.[xxxii] Iranian Khorramshahr ballistic missiles have an effective range between 2,000 and 3,000 kilometers.[xxxiii] The IDF conducted additional airstrikes targeting the Shahid Sadoughi Barracks located south of Yazd City on June 22.[xxxiv]

The IDF separately struck ”planetary mixers and critical machinery” at a facility southeast of Shahroud City, Semnan Province, which are used to produce solid fuel for long-range ballistic missiles such as the Khorramshahr series.[xxxv] The IDF previously destroyed this type of machinery during a raid on a Hezbollah facility in Syria in September 2024 and struck similar machinery at the same Iranian ballistic missile facilities in October 2024.[xxxvi]  The IDF announced it simultaneously struck missile launchers, air defense factories, the headquarters of an unspecified ”3rd Division”, an unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) headquarters, and a UAV warehouse, in separate strikes across Esfahan, Bushehr, and Khuzestan provinces.[xxxvii] It is unclear what formation the IDF is referring to with ”3rd Division,” because the IRGC 3rd Hamzeh Seyyed ol Shohada Special Forces Division is based in West Azerbaijan.[xxxviii] The IDF may be referring to the Seyyed ol Shohada Operational Base, which is distinct from the 3rd Hamzeh Seyyed ol Shohada Special Forces Division and is in Esfahan.[xxxix] The IDF also conducted airstrikes targeting the Artesh 92nd Armored Division, north of Dezful City, Khuzestan Province.[xl] There were additional reports of Israeli airstrikes near Khorramabad City, Lorestan Province, which have not been confirmed at the time of this writing.[xli]

 Iran has not launched drones or ballistic missiles at Israel since CTP-ISW's last data cutoff at 5:00 am June 22. The IRGC claimed to use the Khorramshahr-4 cluster warhead ballistic missile for the first time in an attack on Israel earlier on June 22.[xlii] The IDF said that it struck the Khorramshahr-4 missiles in Iran before launch on June 22, however.[xliii] Iran also launched a Khorramshahr-4 ballistic missile that contained a cluster munition warhead on June 19, according to an Israeli journalist.[xliv]