Iran Update Special Report, June 15, 2025, Morning Edition

Information Cutoff: 6:00 AM ET

The Critical Threats Project (CTP) at the American Enterprise Institute and the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) will be publishing two updates per day while conditions in the Middle East warrant it. Our updates will provide insights into the ongoing strike on Iran's nuclear facilities, military infrastructure, and key military and nuclear program leadership.

We will produce two updates per day while conditions in the Middle East warrant it. This first update covers events between 6:00 PM ET on June 14 and 6:00 AM ET on June 15. The second update will cover events between 6:00 AM ET and 6:00 PM ET on June 15.

Key Takeaways

• The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) has targeted several nuclear sites in Tehran since CTP-ISW's last data cutoff on June 14.
• A US weapons expert reported on June 15 that, if Israel does not render the Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant (FFEP) inoperable, then Iran would be able to produce enough weapons-grade uranium (WGU) for nine nuclear weapons by the end of the first month using its pre-attack 60% enriched uranium stockpile.
• The IDF has also targeted several military and defense industrial sites outside Tehran since CTP-ISW's last data cutoff on June 14.
• Israel expanded its ongoing strike campaign against Iran on June 14 by attacking critical Iranian energy infrastructure.
• Iran has conducted two waves of ballistic missile attacks targeting Israel from Iranian territory since CTP-ISW's last data cutoff on June 14.
• The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) has continued to strike Iranian missile launchers, which is likely limiting the scale of the Iranian response to Israel.

The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) has targeted several nuclear sites in Tehran since CTP-ISW's last data cutoff on June 14. The IDF struck the Organization of Defensive Innovation and Research (SPND), which played a leading role in the Iranian nuclear weapons research program before 2003.[i] The IDF killed former SPND Research and Technology Department head Mansour Asgari on June 14.[ii] The IDF also struck the Iranian Defense and Armed Forces Logistics Ministry (MODAFL), which controls SPND.[iii] The IDF separately struck unspecified "nuclear weapons development laboratories" in Tehran, as well as an unspecified "chemical materials research and development site" and centrifuge production facility in western Tehran.[iv] Two Israeli defense officials told the New York Times that the “nuclear weapons development laboratories” were experimental laboratories.[v] The IDF stated that Iran used the "chemical materials research and development site” to produce raw materials for the development of nuclear weapons.[vi]

An Israeli Army Radio correspondent reported on June 15 that Israeli officials received intelligence prior to the start of the Israeli air campaign on June 12 that Iran had formed a “weapons group.”[vii] The correspondent reported that Iran established the “weapons group” in the months following Hamas’ October 7, 2023, attack on Israel. The correspondent reported that the “weapons group” was in the “experimental stage” and was conducting “successful experiments on the components” of a nuclear weapon. Israeli media reported on June 13 that Israel has killed military commanders and nuclear scientists who were part of the “weapons group.”[viii] Israeli media also reported that the “weapons group” was based in several universities in Tehran and at the Parchin military complex east of Tehran.

A US weapons expert reported on June 15 that, if Israel does not render the Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant (FFEP) inoperable, then Iran would be able to produce enough weapons-grade uranium (WGU) for nine nuclear weapons by the end of the first month using its pre-attack 60% enriched uranium stockpile.[ix] The Institute for Science and International Security reported on June 9 that Iran could convert its current stockpile of 60% enriched uranium at the FFEP into 233 kilograms of WGU in three weeks.[x] The Institute for Science and International Security reported that 233 kilograms of WGU would be enough to produce nine nuclear weapons, given that 25 kilograms of WGU is required to produce one nuclear weapon.[xi]

The IDF has also targeted several military and defense industrial sites outside Tehran since CTP-ISW's last data cutoff on June 14. The IDF reportedly struck Shiraz Electronics Industries in Shiraz, Fars Province, on June 15.[xii] The United States sanctioned Shiraz Electronics Industries in September 2008 for producing electronics equipment for the Iranian armed forces, including “radars, microwave electron vacuum tubes, naval electronics, avionics and control systems, training simulators, missile guidance technology, and electronic test equipment.”[xiii] Shiraz Electronics Industries is a subsidiary of Iran Electronics Industries (IEI), which is controlled by MODAFL.[xiv] The IDF also struck an Iranian munitions factory in Esfahan on June 15.[xv] The IDF struck the same munitions factory in a kamikaze drone attack in January 2023.[xvi] MODAFL reportedly used the factory to produce ballistic missiles and drones.[xvii]

Israel expanded its ongoing strike campaign against Iran on June 14 by attacking critical Iranian energy infrastructure. The IDF struck the Shahran oil depot on the northwestern outskirts of Tehran on June 14.[xviii] The Shahran oil depot holds three days’ worth of fuel for Tehran in at least 11 storage tanks.[xix] Iranian media reported that the IDF also struck the Shahr Rey oil refinery in southern Tehran on June 14.[xx] The Shahr Rey refinery is one of Iran’s largest oil refineries.[xxi] The IDF targeted two Iranian natural gas refineries in Bushehr Province on June 14.[xxii] Social media users reported long lines at gas stations in Tehran on June 15.[xxiii]

Disruptions to Iran’s energy sector will likely worsen the country’s ongoing energy crisis and lead to more widespread and frequently electricity shortages and outages. Iranians have previously protested against the regime in response to energy shortages. Demonstrations over rising gas prices in 2017 and 2018 escalated into broader anti-regime protests.[xxiv]

The IDF has continued to strike Iranian air defense systems to maintain air superiority over Iran. The IDF struck Iranian radar systems overnight on June 14 and 15.[xxv] The IDF posted footage of an Israeli strike on a radar tower.[xxvi]  BBC analyzed satellite imagery from June 14 that showed "significant damage” to an IRGC radar site in Piranshahr, West Azerbaijan Province.[xxvii] The IDF struck a military base in Piranshahr on June 13.[xxviii]

Iran has conducted two waves of ballistic missile attacks targeting Israel from Iranian territory since June 14.[xxix] The IDF reported that Iran launched 80 ballistic missiles in total.[xxx] The first wave targeted the Haifa area in northern Israel and the second wave targeted the Tel Aviv area in central Israel. An Israeli military correspondent reported that Iran also launched “dozens” of drones targeting Israel.[xxxi] The Israeli Air Force (IAF) intercepted at least 10 drones.[xxxii] An Iranian ballistic missile struck a building in Bat Yam, south of Tel Aviv, killing four Israeli civilians and injuring 100 others.[xxxiii] Iranian media circulated videos of fires at Haifa Port and an oil refinery in Haifa.[xxxiv] Israeli media reported that pipelines and transmission lines between facilities at the Bazan Oil Refinery Complex sustained limited damage from Iranian missile attacks.[xxxv]

The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) has continued to strike Iranian missile launchers, which is likely limiting the scale of the Iranian response to Israel. The IDF continued to damage and destroy missile launchers overnight on June 14 and 15.[xxxvi] An Israeli Army Radio correspondent reported that Israeli drones are flying in western Iranian airspace to locate and attack launchers that Iran could use to attack Israel.[xxxvii] A missile analyst identified several damaged transporter erector launchers (TEL) that Israel struck on June 14 as Haj Qasem launchers.[xxxviii] Haj Qasems are medium-range solid-fuel ballistic missiles with a range of around 1,400 kilometers, which suggests that Iran may have intended to use Haj Qasem missiles to attack Israel. Two IRGC members speaking to the New York Times on June 14 stated that Iran originally planned to launch 1,000 ballistic missiles at Israel in response to the Israeli strikes on Iran.[xxxix] The IDF estimates that Iran has thus far only fired between about 150 to 250 missiles in eight waves of attacks since Iran launched its first missile barrage at Israel on June 13.[xl] Iran launched 200 missiles across two waves of attacks in a single day in its October 2024 attack on Israel in comparison.[xli] CTP-ISW previously noted on June 12 that the initial Israeli strikes appear, in part, to be aimed at degrading Iran’s retaliatory capabilities.

The frequency of Iran’s missile barrages targeting Israel has decreased since the start of the Israeli air campaign on June 12, which suggests that Israeli strikes are impacting the rate at which Iran can launch missiles at Israel. Iran conducted six waves of attacks using between 100 and 200 missiles on June 13 and 14.[xlii] Iran has only conducted two waves of attacks using 35 to 40 missiles each since June 14.[xliii]

Israel has also struck missile stockpiles that could have supported Iranian attacks against Israel. Israel has struck missile bases that reportedly stored solid- and liquid-fueled missiles, including Ghadr, Qiam-1, Fateh-110, and possibly Kheybar Shekan ballistic missiles.[xliv] Iranian media reported that Iran has used Emad, Ghadr, and Kheybar Shekan missiles to attack Israel since June 12.[xlv] Iran used Emad, Ghadr, and Kheybar Shekan missiles during its April and October 2024 attacks on Israel.[xlvi] The Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) unveiled a new underground missile base that contained Kheybar Shekan, Ghadr, Sejjil, Emad, and Haj Qassem missiles in March 2025.[xlvii] Former Armed Forces General Staff Chief Major General Mohammad Bagheri claimed in March that the new facility included enough missiles for Iran to conduct an attack “dozens of times” greater than its October 2024 attack on Israel.[xlviii] A missile expert identified photos of fallen Iranian missile debris that fell in Israel as boosters of Emad-type liquid-fueled medium range ballistic missiles and potentially a recently unveiled loitering munition drone named Rezvan.[xlix]

The Axis of Resistance--with the exception of the Houthis--has thus far failed to meaningfully intervene and impose costs on Israel for the Israeli air campaign against Iran. The IDF reported that Israeli air defenses detected two rockets launched from the Gaza Strip on June 14. The rockets fell in open areas near Nir Oz in southern Israel.[l] No group has claimed the attack at the time of this writing.  An unspecified Hezbollah official told Western media that Hezbollah “will not unilaterally launch an attack on Israel in support of Tehran.”[li]

Several Iranian-backed Iraqi militias have released statements condemning the Israeli air campaign but have not claimed any retaliatory attacks against Israel or the United States at the time of this writing.[lii] Kataib Sayyid al Shuhada (KSS) leader Abu Alaa al Walai threatened on June 11 to conduct attacks targeting the United States and its regional allies if the United States supported that Israeli air campaign against Iran.[liii] Iranian-backed Badr Organization Secretary General Hadi al Ameri released a statement condemning Israel’s strikes on Iran and held the United States responsible for Israeli actions.[liv] Ameri did not issue any explicit threat to retaliate against Israel or the United States. Kataib Hezbollah (KH) Secretary General Abu Hussein al Hamidawi warned that KH will attack US forces and other unspecified targets in the region if the United States intervenes in the conflict.[lv] Iranian-backed Iraqi militias may target the United States even if it does not directly participate in or approve Israeli attacks on Iran because Iran and its proxies believe that the United States approves Israeli actions in the region.

The Houthis have conducted at least three separate drone and missile attacks targeting Israel since June 12.[lvi] The Houthis fired a ballistic missile at Ben Gurion Airport on June 13.[lvii] The IDF intercepted the missile.[lviii] The IDF also intercepted three drones launched from Houthi-controlled territory in Yemen on June 13.[lix] Houthi military spokesperson Yahya Sarea stated on June 15 that the group targeted “sensitive” Israeli sites in the Tel Aviv-Jaffa area with several ballistic missiles in coordination with Iran.[lx] The Houthis announced on June 12 that they would participate in a potential conflict if Israel or the United States struck Iran.[lxi]