Iran Update, October 7, 2025

Information Cutoff: 2:00 PM ET

The Critical Threats Project (CTP) at the American Enterprise Institute and the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) publish the Iran Update, which provides insights into Iranian and Iranian-sponsored activities that undermine regional stability and threaten US forces and interests. CTP-ISW publishes the Iran Update daily.

Click here to see CTP and ISW’s interactive map of assessed control of terrain in Syria, and here to see CTP and ISW’s interactive map of Israeli ground operations. The Syria map is updated daily alongside the static Syria maps in this report. CTP-ISW ended daily maps of Israeli ground operations in February 2025.

Click here to see ISW-CTP's interactive map showing the total strikes in Iran during the Israel-Iran War, as well as an interactive timelapse showing the strikes day-by-day.

Iran is pursuing alternative mechanisms, which may include barter systems, to mitigate the impact of snapback sanctions. Iranian Government Spokesperson Fatemeh Mohajerani stated on October 7 that the Iranian government aims to counter snapback sanctions by deepening ties with neighboring countries and international blocs such as the Eurasian Economic Union, BRICS, and Shanghai Cooperation Organization.[i] Mohajerani added that the Iranian government will also use barter mechanisms to sustain trade.[ii] An Iranian trade official similarly stated on October 7 that the Iranian government is preparing alternative ”mechanisms“ to reduce the impact of snapback sanctions on Iran’s trade agreements.[iii] The United Nations Security Council (UNSC) reimposed snapback sanctions on Iran on September 27, and the European Union (EU) reimposed sanctions on Iran on September 29.[iv]

These alternative mechanisms may include barter systems that bypass sanctions. US media previously reported on October 5 that Iran and China have used barter systems that bypass dollar transactions to evade US sanctions since at least 2018, including via the exchange of Iranian oil and metals for Chinese goods and infrastructure projects.[v] Unspecified officials told the Wall Street Journal on October 5 that China funded infrastructure projects in Iran in 2024 in exchange for 8.4 billion US dollars of Iranian oil.[vi]

Iran’s moves to mitigate sanctions are probably driven by concerns that sanctions on the Iranian economy will trigger an economic downturn. The World Bank forecasted in its October report that Iran will face an economic downturn over the next two years.[vii] The World Bank stated that the Iranian economy will shrink by 1.7 percent in 2025 and 2.8 percent in 2026, which is a change from the World Bank’s April 2025 forecast of 0.7 percent growth in 2026.[viii] The World Bank attributed this decline to reduced oil exports and non-oil economic activity due to the reimposition of UNSC sanctions and economic disruptions that followed the Israel-Iran War. The World Bank’s assessment comes amid the reimposition of sanctions on Iran and after several countries, including Canada, New Zealand, Australia, and Turkey, stated that they would abide by UNSC measures.[ix]

The Hamas-Israel ceasefire in the Gaza Strip is a framework ceasefire agreement and not a comprehensive agreement to end the war. Hamas and Israel continued to hold indirect negotiations on US President Donald Trump’s ceasefire plan in Egypt on October 7, which demonstrates that both sides view the plan as a starting point or framework for further negotiations rather than a comprehensive agreement to end the war.[x] Hamas leaders agreed on October 3 to release all living and deceased Israeli hostages during the ceasefire and expressed openness to negotiate on other elements of the US plan.[xi]  Hamas and Israeli officials first held talks on October 6 to discuss the roadmap for future negotiations and ceasefire mechanisms.[xii] The officials discussed an Israeli withdrawal from the Gaza Strip and a timetable for a hostage exchange during talks on October 7.[xiii] Hamas and Israeli officials have not discussed other key aspects of the US plan for peace in the Gaza Strip, such as governance over the Gaza Strip and Hamas’ disarmament.[xiv] Israeli and Hamas officials are expected to continue negotiations for several days, with US officials joining the talks on October 8.[xv]

The United States facilitated a ceasefire between the Syrian government and the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) on October 7 after fighting broke out between Syrian government and Kurdish forces in two Kurdish-dominated neighborhoods of Aleppo City.[xvi] Lingering tensions between the SDF and Syrian government over the partial integration of the into the Syrian state likely led to the outbreak of fighting. Ashrafiyeh and Sheikh Maqsoud are two historically Kurdish neighborhoods in Aleppo City that the SDF agreed to integrate into the .[xvii] The SDF’s Internal Security Forces, also known as the Asayish, do not appear to have integrated into local police forces under the Interior Ministry, as expected under the agreement.[xviii] Both the Syrian government and Kurdish forces have accused the other of exacerbating conflict in these neighborhoods in the months since the agreement went into effect.[xix] The most recent episode of fighting began shortly after the Syrian General Security Service (GSS) located an alleged SDF tunnel that extended from Kurdish areas into a nearby government-controlled neighborhood on October 6 and closed off all entrances or exits to Ashrafiyeh and Sheikh Maqsoud.[xx] Kurdish residents protested the closure of routes in and out of the neighborhoods, while Syrian government and Asayish forces exchanged fire for several hours.[xxi] Syrian state media reported that SDF mortar shells landed in nearby neighborhoods of Aleppo City.[xxii] The Syrian government accused the SDF of targeting GSS security checkpoints in Sheikh Maqsoud, which the SDF later denied.[xxiii] This round of fighting was the largest-scale conflict between Syrian government forces and Kurdish forces in Aleppo City since the SDF agreed to integrate into the Syrian state on March 10.

SDF Commander Mazloum Abdi and two other Autonomous Administration of North and East Syria (AANES) officials travelled to Damascus to meet with Syrian Transitional President Ahmed al Shara and Defense Minister Major General Marhaf Abu Qasra on October 7.[xxiv] Abu Qasra later announced that he and Abdi agreed to an immediate “comprehensive ceasefire on all fronts” in northern and northeastern Syria, likely referring to the fighting both in Aleppo City and recent exchanges of fire near Deir Hafer, eastern Aleppo Province.[xxv] US Special Envoy to Syria Thomas Barrack—who was also present for the meeting along with US Central Command (CENTCOM) Commander Admiral Brad Cooper—told Saudi media on October 7 that Shara and Abdi discussed both sides’ “recommitment” to the March 10 Agreement and that both sides were “heading in the right direction.”[xxvi]

US mediation temporarily halted the brief fighting in Aleppo City, but similar incidents will almost certainly erupt absent further progress from either side towards the SDF's integration into the Syrian state. Both the Syrian government and Turkey have maintained that the SDF must integrate by the end of the year.[xxvii] The continued lack of effort from both the government and the SDF to address minor issues—such as the Asayish’s integration into local police, for example—can contribute to further small-scale bouts of fighting as the deadline for the SDF’s integration approaches.

The Lebanese government has continued to take steps to disarm and weaken Hezbollah. The Lebanese Council of Ministers held a cabinet session on October 6 to review the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF)’s first monthly progress report on the implementation of its plan to disarm Hezbollah south of the Litani River in the next three months.[xxviii] LAF Commander Brigadier General Rodolphe Haykal reported that the LAF has prioritized monopolizing weapons south of the Litani River, containing weapons across Lebanon, and increasing control over Palestinian refugee camps in Lebanon.[xxix] The LAF has doubled the number of its missions in southern Lebanon and has made ”serious progress” in implementing its plan in the past month, according to Lebanese minister Kamal Shehadeh.[xxx]

Haykal said that Hezbollah is not cooperating with the LAF.[xxxi] Hezbollah previously threatened in September 2025 to halt its cooperation with the LAF by refusing to hand over its weapons south of the Litani River if the Lebanese government approved and implemented the LAF’s disarmament plan.[xxxii] Haykal noted that continued Israeli operations have created obstacles for the LAF's implementation of the plan.[xxxiii] Israel has maintained that it will continue to operate in Lebanon until Hezbollah is disarmed.[xxxiv]

The Lebanese Council of Ministers also agreed to suspend the license of a Hezbollah propaganda organization during the cabinet session on October 6.[xxxv] The Lebanese Association of Arts, commonly known as Rissalat, is a Hezbollah art and media organization that spreads Hezbollah propaganda.[xxxvi] Lebanese Interior Minister Ahmad al Hajjar requested that the government dissolve Rissalat, and Lebanese Justice Minister Adel Nassar suggested that the government take judicial measures in response to Hezbollah’s Raouche Rock event.[xxxvii] Rissalat disregarded the Lebanese government’s instructions and illuminated the Raouche Rock in Beirut on September 25 during a rally event to commemorate the death of former Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah.[xxxviii] Hezbollah officials previously warned the government against action that would target Rissalat during the cabinet session and threatened to organize all future Hezbollah events under Rissalat’s name.[xxxix] Rissalat stated that it will continue its activities in response to the government’s decision, which will force the government to take further legal or police action to shut down the organization.[xl]

Hezbollah’s inability to delay or veto the council’s decision to suspend Rissalat’s license and activities reflects Hezbollah’s relative loss of political leverage. Hezbollah held enough seats to have de facto veto power on the council between 2008 and 2019.[xli] Hezbollah and its ally, the Amal Movement, currently only hold five seats in the Council of Ministers, which is insufficient to veto a council decision.[xlii] Hezbollah’s weakened political leverage is also exemplified by the increasing confidence of the Lebanese government to take steps to directly weaken Hezbollah in recent months. The Lebanese Central Bank banned all licensed Lebanese banking institutions from working directly or indirectly with Hezbollah’s main financial arm, al Qard al Hassan, in July 2025.[xliii] The Lebanese government tasked the LAF with disarming Hezbollah and approved the US disarmament plan in August 2025.[xliv]

Key Takeaways

• Iranian Sanctions Mitigations: Iran is pursuing alternative mechanisms, which may include barter systems, to mitigate the impact of snapback sanctions. Iran’s moves to mitigate sanctions are probably driven by concerns that sanctions on the Iranian economy will trigger an economic downturn.
• Ceasefire in the Gaza Strip: The Hamas-Israel ceasefire in the Gaza Strip is a framework ceasefire agreement and not a comprehensive agreement to end the war. Hamas and Israel continued to hold indirect negotiations on US President Donald Trump’s ceasefire plan in Egypt on October 7, which demonstrates that both sides view the plan as a starting point or framework for further negotiations rather than a comprehensive agreement to end the war
• Syrian Democratic Forces and Syrian Government Integration: The United States facilitated a ceasefire between the Syrian government and the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) on October 7 after fighting broke out between Syrian government and Kurdish forces in two Kurdish-dominated neighborhoods of Aleppo City. US mediation temporarily halted the brief fighting in Aleppo City, but similar incidents will almost certainly erupt absent further progress from either side towards the SDF’s integration into the Syrian state.
• Hezbollah Disarmament: The Lebanese government has continued to take steps to disarm and weaken Hezbollah. The Lebanese Council of Ministers held a cabinet session on October 6 to review the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF)’s first monthly progress report on the implementation of its plan to disarm Hezbollah south of the Litani River in the next three months.

Iran

Anti-regime fighters killed two Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) security personnel and wounded three others in an attack on an IRGC operational base near Iraqi Kurdistan on October 6.[xlv] Kurdish anti-regime armed groups may be responsible for the attack due to the location and demographics of the area. Iranian and Iraqi officials agreed in March 2023 that Iraqi authorities would disarm and relocate members of Kurdish opposition groups away from the Iran-Iraq border to address Iranian concerns about the groups’ activities.[xlvi]  The Iranian regime has historically accused Israel of using Iraqi Kurdistan and Kurdish opposition groups to conduct operations against Iran.[xlvii]

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said in an interview with the Clash Report on October 6 that Iran is developing intercontinental ballistic missiles with a range of 8,000 kilometers.[xlviii] CTP-ISW is unable to verify Netanyahu's claim.  Iranian parliamentarian Mohsen Zanganeh said on September 20 that Iran is “conducting a security test of an intercontinental [ballistic] missile” days after Iran conducted a missile test.[xlix]  

Iraq

Nothing significant to report.

Syria

See the topline section.

Arabian Peninsula

The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) intercepted four Houthi drones targeting unspecified sites in Israel on October 7.[l] The IDF intercepted three drones over Eilat, southern Israel.[li] The Houthis have not claimed the drone attacks at the time of this writing. The Houthis have launched hundreds of drones and ballistic missiles targeting Israel since October 2023.[lii]

Palestinian Territories and Lebanon

See the topline section.