Iran Update, October 13, 2025

Information Cutoff: 2:00 PM ET

The  Critical Threats Project (CTP) at the American Enterprise Institute and the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) publish the Iran Update, which provides insights into Iranian and Iranian-sponsored activities that undermine regional stability and threaten US forces and interests. CTP-ISW publishes the Iran Update daily.

Click here to see CTP and ISW’s interactive map of assessed control of terrain in Syria, and here to see CTP and ISW’s interactive map of Israeli ground operations. The Syria map is updated daily alongside the static Syria maps in this report. CTP-ISW ended daily maps of Israeli ground operations in February 2025.

Click here to see ISW-CTP's interactive map showing the total strikes in Iran during the Israel-Iran War, as well as an interactive timelapse showing the strikes day-by-day.

Note: CTP-ISW will publish an abbreviated Iran Update on October 13 and will resume full coverage on October 14.

Key Takeaways:

• Hamas-Israel Ceasefire: Hamas and Israel have continued to implement the October 9 ceasefire agreement. Hamas released all 20 living hostages and the bodies of four deceased hostages, and Israel released at least 1,700 Palestinian prisoners on October 13. The ceasefire agreement does not address key outstanding issues between Hamas and Israel, such as Hamas’ disarmament, a full Israeli withdrawal from the Gaza Strip, and future governance in the strip.
• Iranian Threats to Close the Strait of Hormuz: Senior Iranian officials have continued to threaten to close the Strait of Hormuz, likely to try to deter the United States and its allies from enforcing UNSC Resolution 1929 and sanctions on Iranian oil exports. UNSC Resolution 1929 calls on UN member states to “inspect any [Iranian] vessel on their territory suspected of carrying prohibited cargo, including banned conventional arms or sensitive nuclear or missile items.”

Hamas and Israel have continued to implement the October 9 ceasefire agreement. Hamas and Israel agreed to a ceasefire and hostage-prisoner exchange on October 9, and the Israeli government approved the agreement on October 10.[i] The agreement called for Hamas to release all remaining hostages and Israel to release Palestinian prisoners held in Israel.[ii] Hamas released all 20 living hostages and the bodies of four deceased hostages on October 13.[iii] It is unclear when Hamas will release the remaining 24 deceased hostages.[iv] Israel previously stated that an unspecified international organization would help locate the remaining deceased hostages if Hamas did not release them by October 13.[v] Israel released at least 1,700 Palestinian prisoners on October 13.[vi] The ceasefire agreement also calls for humanitarian aid to be delivered to the Gaza Strip.[vii] Egypt sent approximately 400 aid trucks to the Gaza Strip on October 12.[viii] The aid will be distributed after Israel inspects the trucks.[ix] Humanitarian organizations are expected to deliver approximately 600 trucks of aid per day to the Gaza Strip.[x]

US President Donald Trump traveled to Israel and Egypt to discuss the ceasefire with regional leaders. Trump addressed the Israeli Knesset on October 13 and told reporters that "the war is over.”[xi]  Trump departed Israel to attend a summit in Sharm al Sheikh, Egypt, on October 13 to discuss outstanding aspects of the US plan with Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al Sisi and other Arab and regional leaders, including Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas.[xii]  Trump, Sisi, Qatari Emir Tamim bin Hamad al Thani, and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan signed a ceasefire plan during the summit.[xiii]  Trump said that the document, which the White House referred to as the “Gaza Peace Plan,” will “spell out rules and regulations” for the ceasefire.[xiv] The US plan calls for representatives from the United States, Egypt, Qatar, and Turkey to coordinate the implementation of the ceasefire between Israel and Hamas.[xv] Two hundred US military personnel will deploy to Israel to assist with the implementation of the ceasefire alongside forces from Egypt, Qatar, Turkey, and the United Arab Emirates.[xvi] The ceasefire agreement does not address key outstanding issues between Hamas and Israel, such as Hamas’ disarmament, a full Israeli withdrawal from the Gaza Strip, and future governance in the Gaza Strip.[xvii] Hamas and Israel concluded talks on Trump’s peace plan after both parties agreed to the first phase of the plan and will not resume negotiations on outstanding issues until the first phase is implemented.[xviii]

Senior Iranian officials have continued to threaten to close the Strait of Hormuz, likely to try to deter the United States and its allies from enforcing UN Security Council (UNSC) Resolution 1929 and sanctions on Iranian oil exports.[xix] UNSC Resolution 1929 calls on UN member states to “inspect any [Iranian] vessel on their territory suspected of carrying prohibited cargo, including banned conventional arms or sensitive nuclear or missile items.”[xx] Iranian Foreign Affairs Minister Abbas Araghchi warned on October 10 that Iran would respond “in a reciprocal and appropriate manner” if UN member states use UNSC Resolution 1929 to seize Iranian vessels.[xxi] Iranian Supreme Leader Adviser to the Defense Council Ali Shamkhani similarly warned Iranian adversaries on October 10 that Iran has not decided to close the Strait of Hormuz, but that Iran’s response to unspecified escalation in the strait would not be “limited.”[xxii] Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps Navy Commander Rear Admiral Ali Reza Tangsiri separately stated on October 11 that Iran’s decision to close the Strait of Hormuz would depend on “the pressure on Iranian exports,” most likely referring to Iranian oil exports.[xxiii]  The United States recently sanctioned over 90 individuals, entities, and vessels on October 9 for facilitating the illicit trade of Iranian oil and gas.[xxiv] The sanctions are part of Trump’s “maximum pressure” campaign, which seeks to drive Iranian oil exports to zero.[xxv] The United States previously seized Iranian oil tankers and weapons shipments between May 2018 and January 2021 as part of the first Trump administration’s maximum pressure campaign.[xxvi] Iran responded to the maximum pressure campaign in 2019 by threatening international shipping, including by seizing a British oil tanker, harassing vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz, and conducting an attack targeting Saudi oil facilities.[xxvii] Iranian officials’ concern about Iran’s ability to continue exporting Iranian oil comes after Reuters reported in March 2025 that the United States was considering a plan in which the United States and its allies would halt and inspect Iranian oil tankers at sea.[xxviii] Oil exports are Iran’s economic lifeline and are critical to keeping the Iranian economy afloat, particularly amid increased Western economic pressure on Iran in recent weeks. Iranian military commanders have recently increased inspections of naval units in the Persian Gulf, including naval units stationed at Kharg Island, which is home to Iran’s main oil export terminal.[xxix]