Iran Update Morning Special Report, March 4, 2026

Data Cutoff: 08:00 AM ET

The Critical Threats Project (CTP) at the American Enterprise Institute and the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) are publishing two updates daily to provide analysis on the war with Iran. The morning update will focus on US and Israeli strikes on Iran and Iran and the Axis of Resistance’s response to the strikes. The evening update will be more comprehensive, covering events over the past 24-hour period and refining items discussed in the morning update.

Key Takeaways:

• The United States and Israel have continued to attack Iranian internal security institutions. The combined force also continued to target police stations, including an Iranian Cyber Police (FATA) station in Kermanshah, Kermanshah Province.
• The US-Israeli combined force continued to degrade Iran’s ballistic missile and drone infrastructure in Iran. US Central Command (CENTCOM) Commander Admiral Brad Cooper stated on March 3 that the combined force has "severely degraded” Iran's air defenses and destroyed hundreds of Iran's ballistic missiles, drones, and launchers.
• The combined force continued to target Iranian defense industrial sites. The combined force struck at least two buildings at the Khojir Missile Production Complex in Hajarabad, Tehran Province.
• The combined force continued to attack Iranian naval capabilities. CENTCOM announced on March 4 that the United States has struck or sunk more than 20 Iranian ships.
• US Central Command (CENTCOM) reported on March 4 that the number of ballistic missiles Iran has fired regionally has decreased 86 percent since the start of the combined force’s campaign on February 28, with a 23 percent decrease in the past 24 hours. The combined force has designed its campaign to destroy Iran’s ballistic missile capabilities before the force depletes its interceptor stockpiles.
• Hezbollah has conducted several attacks targeting IDF positions and forces in northern Israel and southern Lebanon since CTP-ISW's last data cutoff. Hezbollah launched two rocket attacks targeting Israeli forces in northern Israel, as well as a rocket attack targeting the Haifa Naval Base on March 3.

Toplines

US and Israeli Air Campaign

The United States and Israel have continued to attack Iranian internal security institutions. The IDF targeted the “internal security riot control headquarters” in western Tehran.[i] The IDF also targeted the 8th Tehran Municipality Beheshti Basij Resistance Regional Base and the 14th Tehran Municipality Mahalati Basij Resistance Regional Base in airstrikes on March 3.[ii] Satellite imagery from March 4 confirms that the combined force also struck the 2nd Tehran Municipality Bahoner Basij Resistance Regional Base. These bases operate under the IRGC Ground Forces Sarallah Headquarters.[iii] The Sarallah Headquarters is responsible for overseeing security in the capital region and plays a key role in protest suppression. The IDF also struck a separate internal security headquarters in Tehran, which likely refers to the LEC Border Guard Headquarters.[iv] Satellite imagery from March 4 shows that the combined force destroyed several buildings at the Ilam Province LEC Headquarters in Ilam, Ilam Province. An Israeli OSINT account circulated an image of smoke reportedly coming from the East Azerbaijan LEC headquarters in Tabriz, East Azerbaijan.[v] CTP-ISW cannot verify if the building was hit.

The combined force also continued to target police stations, including an Iranian Cyber Police (FATA) station in Kermanshah, Kermanshah Province.[vi] Te FATA operates under the LEC and is responsible for domestic surveillance and cyber operations. The Iranian regime has previously used FATA to thwart dissent on online platforms, including during the crackdowns that followed the Masha Amini protests in 2022.[vii] Israel struck the FATA headquarters in Tehran during the June 2025 Israel-Iran War.[viii] The Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmail Baghaei confirmed on March 4 that the combined force also attacked the Diplomatic Police headquarters in Tehran.[ix] The Diplomatic Police operate under the LEC and protect foreign embassies and diplomats in Iran from threats, including civil unrest and protests.[x]

The US-Israeli combined force continued to degrade Iran’s ballistic missile and drone infrastructure in Iran. US Central Command (CENTCOM) Commander Admiral Brad Cooper stated on March 3 that the combined force has "severely degraded” Iran's air defenses and destroyed hundreds of Iran's ballistic missiles, drones, and launchers.[xi] The IAF announced on March 4 that it attacked several ballistic missile and defense storage sites overnight on March 3 and 4.[xii]  Satellite imagery confirms strikes at the following missile bases: Esfahan South Missile Base in Esfahan Province, Kashan Missile Base in Esfahan Province, Dezful Missile Base in Khuzestan Province, and Southwest Tabriz Missile Base in East Azerbaijan Province.[xiii] Kashan Missile Base is located near the 840th Missile Group in Aran va Bidgo, Esfahan Province.[xiv] The Israeli Air Force (IAF) struck a missile storage facility at Esfahan North Missile Base that houses Ghadr missiles in order to prevent further launches.[xv] Iran has reportedly used Ghadr missiles to attack Israel in the current conflict.[xvi]

The combined force continued to target Iranian defense industrial sites. The combined force struck at least two buildings at the Khojir Missile Production Complex in Hajarabad, Tehran Province.[xvii] The Khojir complex is a research, development, and manufacturing facility for solid- and liquid-fuel missiles. Some OSINT accounts said that Iran used the two buildings, which included facilities to produce oxidizer for Iranian liquid-fuel missiles and solid propellant motors.[xviii]  Israel previously struck the Khojir complex during the June 2025 Israel-Iran War and during Israeli airstrikes in Iran in October 2024.[xix] An Israeli analyst reported that the combined force has also targeted Shiraz Electronic Industries in Shiraz, Fars Province, several times.[xx] Shiraz Electronic Industries is affiliated with Iran's Ministry of Defense and Armed Forces Logistics (MODAFL). The United States sanctioned Shiraz Electronics Industries in September 2008 for producing electronic equipment for the Iranian armed forces.[xxi] Iranian media reported on February 28 that the combined force targeted an unspecified defense industrial site in Shiraz.[xxii] Israel previously struck Shiraz Electronics Industries during the 12-Day War.[xxiii] Satellite imagery from March 4 confirms that the combined force also struck Novin Sazan Industrial Group, Ghazanfar Roknabadi Industries, Baharestan Industrial Town, and Hakimiyah Industrial Zone. The IDF issued an evacuation order for the Hakimiyeh Industrial Zone in northwestern Tehran on March 3.[xxiv] Ghazanfar Roknabadi Industries is reportedly involved in drone production for the IRGC.[xxv]

The combined force continued to attack Iranian naval capabilities. CENTCOM announced on March 4 that the United States has struck or sunk more than 20 Iranian ships.^xxvi CENTCOM Commander Admiral Brad Cooper added that there is “not a single Iranian ship underway in the Arabian Gulf, Strait of Hormuz, or Gulf of Oman.”[xxvi] The United States Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth confirmed that a US Navy submarine sunk an Iranian warship, IRIS Dena, off the southern coast of Sri Lanka.[xxvii] The IRIS Dena is a Moudge-class frigate in the Artesh Navy’s Southern Fleet.[xxviii] The United States also attacked the IRGC Navy’s IRIS Shahid Sayyad Shirazi, a Soleimani-class warship, off the coast of Bandar Abbas, Hormozgan Province.[xxix] The IRGC fired a naval version of its “Seyed-3” surface-to-air missile off the IRIS Shahid Sayyad Shirazi during its recent naval exercise in the Strait of Hormuz in February to prepare for a potential conflict with the United States.[xxx][xxxi]

An Israeli analyst reported that Israel killed the IRGC Special Operations Division head, Rahman Mokadam.[xxxii] The Israeli analyst said that Mokadam played a key role in US President Donald Trump’s planned assassination in 2024.[xxxiii] Another analyst noted that it is not clear if Mokadam worked for the IRGC Quds Force’s Unit 840 or the Special Division's Unit 400 of the IRGC’s Intelligence Organization.[xxxiv] The IRGC Quds Force Units 840 and 400 conduct covert action and assassinations abroad.[xxxv] Mokadam previously served as the Deputy Coordinator for Information Protection at the Iranian Defense Ministry.[xxxvi]

Iran Retaliation

Iran has continued to launch ballistic missile barrages at Israel since CTP-ISW's last data cutoff on March 3. Iran conducted at least seven ballistic missile barrages targeting Israel between March 3 at 4:00 PM ET and March 4 at 8:00 AM ET.[xxxvii] CTP-ISW has not observed any missile impacts at the time of this writing.

US Central Command (CENTCOM) reported on March 4 that the number of ballistic missiles Iran has fired regionally has decreased 86 percent since the start of the combined force’s campaign on February 28, with a 23 percent decrease in the past 24 hours.[xxxviii] The combined force has designed its campaign to destroy Iran’s ballistic missile capabilities before the force depletes its interceptor stockpiles. CENTCOM’s statement further demonstrates the force’s successful efforts against Iran’s ballistic missile capabilities.

CENTCOM Commander Admiral Brad Cooper stated on March 3 that Iran has launched at least 2,000 drones since the start of the war.[xxxix] Cooper also stated that the United States has destroyed hundreds of drones and will continue to “[shoot] all things that can shoot us.”[xl] CTP-ISW previously reported strikes on the IRGC drone base in Mahidasht, west of Kermanshah, on March 3.[xli]  Satellite imagery confirmed that strikes destroyed at least three hardened shelters at the base.[xlii]

The IRGC claimed on March 3 that the IRGC Ground Forces launched three simultaneous attacks against Israel, which included 230 drones.[xliii] The IRGC also claimed that it fired dozens of drones at an unspecified US base in Erbil, Iraqi Kurdistan, and intermittently launched drones at the US Ali al Salem and Arifjan bases in Kuwait.

Iran continues to conduct drone and ballistic missile attacks targeting Gulf countries hosting US forces. Iran launched two ballistic missiles targeting Al Udeid Airbase in Qatar on March 3. Qatari air defenses intercepted one missile, while the other hit the base, causing no casualties.[xliv] Geolocated satellite imagery posted on March 3 also shows damage from an unidentified Iranian drone attack on a phased array radar in Umm Dahal, Qatar.[xlv] Geolocated footage posted on March 3 separately shows an Iranian drone striking the Hayat Palace hotel in Manama, Bahrain.[xlvi] The Saudi Defense Minister said on March 3 that Saudi Arabia intercepted two Iranian cruise missiles in al Kharj, Saudi Arabia, which is located near Prince Sultan Airbase.[xlvii] Saudi Arabia also intercepted 9 Iranian drones on March 3 that entered Saudi airspace.[xlviii]

Iran has continued to attack energy infrastructure in the Gulf, likely to impose an economic cost and compel the United States and its partners to pursue a ceasefire before achieving their objective of toppling the regime. Geolocated footage posted on March 4 shows a fire at an oil depot in Fujairah, United Arab Emirates (UAE), following an attack.[xlix]

Axis Response

Saraya Awliya al Dam, which is a front group for other Iranian-backed Iraqi militias, claimed multiple attacks targeting US forces since CTP-ISW's last data cutoff.[l] Saraya Awliya al Dam claimed on March 4 that it launched separate “squadrons” of drones targeting a hotel in Erbil used by US forces and Erbil International Airport, which houses a US military base.[li]  Sources in Erbil reported hearing the sound of explosions at Harir military base, which houses US forces, and near the Erbil International Airport.[lii] Saraya Awliya al Dam also claimed that it launched a “squadron” of drones targeting an unspecified target in Jordan.[liii] CTP-ISW noted on March 2 that Iranian-backed Iraqi militias appear to be threatening to expand their attacks to regional countries that host US troops.[liv] Iranian-backed Iraqi militias have previously attacked regional countries that host US forces, such as a January 2024 attack on a US outpost in Jordan that killed three US service members.[lv]

Hezbollah has conducted several attacks targeting IDF positions and forces in northern Israel and southern Lebanon since CTP-ISW's last data cutoff. Hezbollah launched two rocket attacks targeting Israeli forces in northern Israel, as well as a rocket attack targeting the Haifa Naval Base on March 3.[lvi] Hezbollah claimed that it launched separate missile attacks targeting the Givaa Drone Base east of Safed, northern Israel, and the IDF Northern Command headquarters in Safed on March 4.[lvii] Hezbollah also said that it launched a “squadron” of drones targeting the Israeli Aerospace Industries located in central Israel on March 4.[lviii] Hezbollah claimed separate missile attacks targeting an Israeli armored personnel carrier and Merkava tank in Houla, southern Lebanon.[lix] An Israeli outlet reported on March 3 that Hezbollah launched a rocket salvo for one of its recent attacks from Berghoz, south of the Litani River, which demonstrates that Hezbollah still has a physical presence in southern Lebanon.[lx]

A senior Israeli official told an Israeli media correspondent that Iran and Hezbollah have attempted to coordinate their attack timing, following an attack on March 4 in which Hezbollah fired rockets and missiles targeting unspecified sites in central Israel as Iran fired a ballistic missile at Israel.[lxi]  The IDF said on March 4 that it intercepted several projectiles from Lebanon.[lxii] This attack, which injured two people, marks Hezbollah's first long-range attack since it first entered the conflict on March 1.[lxiii] CTP-ISW has not observed any indications that Hezbollah and Iran are planning simultaneous attacks on Israel, however.

The IDF has conducted at least 17 airstrikes targeting Hezbollah military sites and institutions in Lebanon since CTP-ISW's last data cutoff to degrade Hezbollah’s ability to conduct retaliatory strikes against Israel.[lxiv] The IDF has struck more than 250 targets in Lebanon since March 2.[lxv] The IDF announced on March 4 that it struck multiple sites in southern Lebanon, as well as buildings that included underground Hezbollah weapons depots and headquarters in Beirut.[lxvi] The IDF announced on March 3 that it struck and killed a Hezbollah member who had launched an anti-tank missile towards an IDF position in southern Lebanon.[lxvii] The IDF issued evacuation orders on March 4 for residents in southern Lebanon to move north of the Litani River.[lxviii] The IDF’s evacuation order follows the IDF’s launch of “forward defense maneuver[s]” in southern Lebanon on March 3 to prevent Hezbollah attacks on northern Israel.[lxix] The IDF redeployed the 146th Division (Res.) to the western area of the Israel-Lebanon border ”for defensive purposes.”[lxx] The 146th Division had been stationed on the western border from October 2023 to May 2025.[lxxi]