Iran Update, June 30, 2025

Information Cutoff: 2:00 PM ET

The Critical Threats Project (CTP) at the American Enterprise Institute and the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) publish the Iran Update, which provides insights into Iranian and Iranian-sponsored activities that undermine regional stability and threaten US forces and interests. CTP-ISW publishes the Iran Update daily.

Click here to see CTP and ISW’s interactive map of assessed control of terrain in Syria, and here to see CTP and ISW’s interactive map of Israeli ground operations. The Syria map is updated daily alongside the static Syria maps in this report. CTP-ISW ended daily maps of Israeli ground operations in February 2025.

Click here to see ISW-CTP's interactive map showing the total strikes in Iran since June 12, as well as an interactive timelapse showing the strikes day-by-day.

US officials told Western media that Iranian officials said in intercepted communications that the US strikes on Iran’s nuclear program were “less devastating” than anticipated, which is inconsistent with previous open-source reporting and the nature of the strikes.[i] Four unspecified US officials familiar with US intelligence said that the intercepted communication included Iranian officials speculating as to why the US airstrikes were not as destructive and extensive as they anticipated.[ii] The Western media report did not clarify what the Iranian officials ”anticipated,” which makes it challenging to understand the relative degree of damage Iran sustained due to the relative nature of the statement. It is also unclear when the US intelligence community collected this intelligence, but separate Israeli intelligence suggested that Iranian military officials have been giving false situation reports and downplaying the extent of damage to Iran’s political leadership, however.[iii] Signals intelligence collected within a day or two of the strike would presumably be less reliable than intelligence collected a week or more after the strike. It is unlikely that any Iranian officials could have executed a complete battle damage assessment within 48 hours because doing so would require seeing the inside of the facility, and all the known access points had collapsed. The Institute for Science and International Security also previously assessed that twelve 30,000lb bombs penetrated Fordow and generated a blast wave that would have destroyed the centrifuges enriching uranium at Fordow.[iv] Even small vibrations can destroy centrifuges.

Key Takeaways

• A top Iranian official cast doubt on the likelihood of US-Iran talks soon. The official, who was previously involved in negotiations, said Iran “insist[s]” on enriching uranium.
• US officials told Western media that Iranian officials said in intercepted communications that the US strikes on Iran’s nuclear program were “less devastating” than anticipated, which is inconsistent with previous open-source reporting and the nature of the strikes. It is also unclear what the Iranian officials ”anticipated,” which makes it challenging to understand the relative degree of damage Iran sustained due to the relative nature of the statement.
• A prominent Iranian cleric issued a religious ruling that states individuals who threaten Iranian leadership and religious authority are punishable by death. This cleric previously met with a reformist former Iranian president, who attempted to sideline the supreme leader at least temporarily, and the ruling may be intended to demonstrate loyalty to the supreme leader.

Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Majid Takht Ravanchi cast doubt on the likelihood of US-Iran nuclear talks in the near future. Ravanchi told the BBC on June 30 that US leaders must commit to halt further strikes on Iran before talks can resume.[v] He did not clarify whether “strikes” included both Israeli strikes and US strikes or solely US strikes. US President Donald Trump indicated on June 27 that the United States would reserve the option to strike Iran again if intelligence suggests that the Iranian nuclear program is capable of enriching uranium to “concerning levels.”[vi] US President Donald Trump announced on June 25 that the United States and Iran will meet ”next week“ to discuss a potential nuclear deal.[vii] Ravanchi said that Trump administration mediators told Iran that the United States wanted to restart negotiations this week, but that Iran had not agreed to a date or agenda for the future talks.[viii] Neither side has changed its position on key issues, including Iranian uranium enrichment and Iran’s missile program. Western media reported that the US demand for zero uranium enrichment remains non-negotiable.[ix] The administration reportedly remains open to negotiating on the removal of all of Iran’s highly enriched uranium stockpile and limitations on future missile production.[x] Iran repeatedly rejected the US demands for zero uranium enrichment and limits to its ballistic missile program prior to the conflict, stating that its ballistic missile program and uranium enrichment on Iranian soil were non-negotiable red lines.[xi] Ravanchi said that Iranian leaders have not moved from their prior position and "insist" on enriching uranium.[xii]

An Iranian official suggested that Iran will allow International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) inspectors to stay in Iran despite suspending cooperation with the IAEA.[xiii] Iranian Foreign Affairs Ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei confirmed on June 30 that IAEA inspectors are still present in Iran, but that Iran could not yet guarantee inspectors' safety at nuclear sites given the recent strikes on the Iranian nuclear program.[xiv] The IAEA previously confirmed on June 19 that its inspectors remained present in Iran and are ”ready to be deployed at nuclear sites when possible.”[xv] Iran has not changed its position on suspending cooperation with the IAEA, however. Baghaei accused the IAEA of ”mistakes” that had ”consequences” and made ”bilateral cooperation...irrational.”[xvi] Iran, as a party to the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty (NPT), must allow the IAEA to inspect Iran’s facilities.[xvii] The IAEA impartially reports its findings. Iran’s Guardian Council approved on June 26 a bill that suspended cooperation with the IAEA, eliminated the organization’s access to Iran’s nuclear facilities, and barred inspectors from entering the country.[xviii] Iran also announced on June 28 that it will no longer allow IAEA cameras in its nuclear facilities.[xix] Baghaei’s confirmation suggests that Iran will not allow new inspectors into the country but is not forcing the present inspectors to leave Iran.  

A prominent Iranian cleric, Ayatollah Makarem Shirazi, issued a fatwa that states individuals who threaten Iranian leadership and religious authority are punishable by death.[xx] The fatwa declares these individuals ”moharebeh” (enmity against god), which is punishable by death. The fatwa defines all individuals and governments who ”attack” Iranian leadership to harm the Islamic community as an enemy of God, or “mohareb.” It remains unclear if the fatwa refers to both physical and rhetorical attacks. The Iranian Supreme National Security Council announced on June 16 that pro-Israel actions would face execution under charges of ”moharebeh.”[xxi] These capital charges encompass activities like legitimizing Israel’s image and spreading rumors inciting anti-government sentiment. Judiciary Head Gholam Hossein Ejei also instructed the judiciary on June 15 to expedite trials and punishments for those who ”cooperate and collude with adversaries.”[xxii] The Iranian clerical establishment has previously weaponized the term “mohareb” against domestic dissidents, including charging Mahsa Amini protesters with the death penalty in 2022.[xxiii]

Shirazi’s fatwa may be a public rejection of former reformist President Hasan Rouhani’s reported discussions with Shirazi and others that sought to sideline Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei at least temporarily.  Rouhani recently met with Shirazi in Qom to encourage Shirazi to persuade Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei to drop Iran’s demand for uranium enrichment on Iranian soil and accept a ceasefire with Israel.[xxiv] The fatwa could be intended to support Khamanei’s ruling that Iran needs to retain uranium enrichment and reinforce Shirazi’s loyalty to Khamenei. Two other clerics who also met with Rouhani—Ayatollah Zanjani and Khorasani—notably did not issue similar fatwas or messages supporting Shirazi’s moharebeh fatwa, however. Other senior clerics, Ayatollah Noori Hamedani and Ayatollah Ali Reza Arafi, also issued moharebeh fatwas on June 30 that echoed Shirazi‘s earlier moharebeh fatwa on June 29.[xxv] Hamedani and Arafi did not meet with Rouhani.

Iranian Judiciary spokesperson separately announced on June 30 that Iranian security forces arrested an unspecified number of European nationals in various Iranian provinces on allegations of collaborating with Israel.”[xxvi]

Several currency exchange offices across Iran experienced “technical disruptions” on June 30, according to an anti-regime outlet.[xxvii] These disruptions follow pro-Israeli hacking group Predatory Sparrow’s recent cyber-attack on Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps-affiliated Sepah and Pasargad banks’ online banking services and cash machines, which the Iranian armed forces use to pay suppliers abroad.[xxviii] Iranians use exchange offices to transfer money abroad due to distrust in the banking system in Iran.[xxix]