Iran Update Evening Special Report, May 23, 2026

Data Cutoff: 2:00 PM ET

The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) and The Critical Threats Project (CTP) at the American Enterprise Institute are publishing daily updates to provide analysis on the war with Iran. The updates focus on US and Israeli strikes on Iran and Iran and the Axis of Resistance’s response to the strikes. The updates cover events from the past 24-hour period. 

Key Takeaways:

• Iran’s latest counterproposal frontloads all of Iran’s key demands on the withdrawal of “a US threat to Iran,” financial relief, and Iran’s “right” to manage the Strait of Hormuz while attempting to delay discussion of Iran’s nuclear program. Iran’s proposal corroborates CTP-ISW's assessment that the regime believes it is winning the war and is negotiating from a position of strength.
• Iran’s latest proposal demanded an end to the war on all fronts, including in Lebanon, and the withdrawal of US forces from the ”warzone.” Withdrawing US “threats to Iran” would constitute a withdrawal from the region, presumably, which both removes US military leverage and accomplishes a key Iranian objective: expelling US forces from the region.
• Iran emphasized in its latest proposal that the Strait of Hormuz will remain under some form of Iranian control and that Iran will not continue negotiations if the United States does not end its blockade of Iranian ports and ships. Iranian officials continue to emphasize Iranian management of the strait as a key sticking point in negotiations.
• US President Donald Trump stated on May 23 that he would decide by May 24 whether to resume strikes on Iran. Trump said he would only accept a deal that addresses key issues, including Iran's uranium enrichment and its HEU stockpile.

Toplines

Iran’s latest counterproposal front-loads all of Iran’s key demands on the withdrawal of “a US threat to Iran,” financial relief, and Iran’s “right” to manage the Strait of Hormuz while attempting to delay discussion of Iran’s nuclear program. Iran’s proposal corroborates CTP-ISW's assessment that the regime believes it is winning the war and is negotiating from a position of strength.[i]  Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) affiliated media outlet Tasnim News Agency reported on May 23 that Iran’s counterproposal was sent to Pakistani mediators.[ii] Iran demanded an end to the war on all fronts, including in Lebanon, and the withdrawal of US forces from the ”warzone.”[iii]  Withdrawing US “threats to Iran” would constitute a withdrawal from the region, presumably, which both removes US military leverage and accomplishes a key Iranian objective: expelling US forces from the region. The proposal included demands that Iran will not discuss its nuclear program unless the war first ends, rejects transferring its highly enriched uranium (HEU) stockpile to the United States, and will not commit to dismantling its nuclear facilities, all of which are key US demands.[iv] The United States would be forfeiting considerable leverage in the first phase of an agreement before discussing the nuclear issue. The proposal also included Iranian demands that the United States lift all sanctions on Iran and release all frozen Iranian assets in the first phase.[v] Iran emphasized in the proposal that the Strait of Hormuz will remain under some form of Iranian control and that Iran will not continue negotiations if the United States does not end its blockade of Iranian ports and ships.[vi] The maximalist terms in the proposal indicate that Iran’s regime believes it is negotiating from a position of strength due to its victory in the war.

You can read more in our latest analysis of Iran’s efforts to assert control over the Strait of Hormuz here: How Iran Hopes to Control the Strait of Hormuz—It's Not Just About Fees by Brian Carter.

Iranian officials continue to emphasize Iranian management of the Strait of Hormuz as a key sticking point in negotiations. Iranian Foreign Affairs Ministry Spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei stated on May 23 that the strait “does not concern” the United States and that Iran and Oman should define a mechanism for the waterway as coastal states.[vii] The New York Times reported on May 21 that Iran and Oman have discussed a system to charge vessels fees for maritime “services” rather than tolls for passage.[viii] This is illegal under international maritime law. IRGC-affiliated Tasnim News Agency reported on May 23 that Iran has demanded that the strait not return to its pre-war mechanism and ”legal regime.”[ix] Tasnim added that Iran has demanded an end to the US naval blockade and said that negotiations will not proceed while the blockade remains in place.[x] IRGC-affiliated Fars News separately reported that Iran will only commit to restoring the number of vessels that transit the strait to pre-war levels, while Iran would determine which vessels receive approval and what route they must take.[xi] The IRGC Navy reported on May 23 that 25 vessels crossed the strait in the past 24 hours after they received permission and transited under IRGC Navy coordination and security provision, which indicates that Iran is trying to portray itself as the manager and security provider for strait transit.[xii]

US President Donald Trump stated on May 23 that he would decide by May 24 whether to resume strikes on Iran.[xiii] A US official familiar with the talks told Axios that negotiators have exchanged drafts every day without much progress.[xiv] Trump said the chances of reaching a deal with Iran or resuming strikes are a "solid fifty-fifty".[xv] Trump spoke with regional leaders on May 23 to discuss the latest Iranian proposal.[xvi] A source close to the negotiations told the Washington Times that the United States and Iran are expected to announce the finalization of a draft proposal to end fighting on all fronts by afternoon on May 24.[xvii] Trump said he would only accept a deal that addresses key issues, including Iran's uranium enrichment and its HEU stockpile.[xviii]

Maritime Developments

See the topline section.

US-Israeli Air Campaign

Nothing significant to report.

Iran Internal Dynamics

Nothing significant to report.

Lebanese Hezbollah and the Israeli Campaign in Lebanon

Nothing significant to report.

Other Axis of Resistance Activity

US media reported on May 22 that senior Iranian-backed Iraqi militia Kataib Hezbollah commander Mohammad Baqer Saad Dawoud al Saadi had planned attacks targeting members of US President Donald Trump’s family prior to his arrest on May 15.[xix] US authorities charged Saadi with planning at least 20 attacks targeting civilians in Europe, Canada, and the United States after Turkey detained and handed over Saadi to the United States.[xx] A senior Iraqi military officer and another unnamed source told US media that Saadi sought to target Trump’s family as retaliation for the US airstrike that killed former IRGC Quds Force commander Qasem Soleimani in January 2020.[xxi] A researcher who Kataib Hezbollah abducted in Baghdad and held hostage between 2023 and 2025 reported that Saadi was a close associate of Soleimani and the current Quds Force commander Esmail Ghaani.[xxii] The US government identified Kataib Hezbollah as the group that abducted US journalist Shelly Kittleson in Baghdad on March 31.[xxiii]