Iran Update Evening Special Report, May 10, 2026

The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) and The Critical Threats Project (CTP) at the American Enterprise Institute are publishing daily updates to provide analysis on the war with Iran. The updates focus on US and Israeli strikes on Iran and Iran and the Axis of Resistance’s response to the strikes. The updates cover events from the past 24-hour period. 

Key Takeaways:

• US President Donald Trump stated on May 10 that Iran's latest counterproposal is “totally unacceptable.” Individuals familiar with Iran’s counterproposal told the Wall Street Journal on May 10 that Iran’s counterproposal calls for an end to the war, the “gradual opening of the Strait of Hormuz,” and the lifting of the United States’ naval blockade on Iranian ports.
• Iran likely conducted attacks against a commercial vessel and some Gulf countries on May 10. These attacks may be intended to sustain high oil prices and thereby impose economic pressure on the United States in order to compel the United States to make concessions in negotiations.
• Iran is attempting to coerce countries into lifting economic pressure on Iran in order to be able to transit through the Strait of Hormuz. Iran is also attempting to generate revenue by imposing a toll scheme in the strait.
• Iranian media has publicized meetings between Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei and senior Iranian officials in recent days, likely to portray Mojtaba as an active decision-maker in the regime amid reports that Mojtaba has been marginalized.

Toplines

US President Donald Trump stated on May 10 that Iran's latest counterproposal is “totally unacceptable.”[i] Iranian regime media reported on May 10 that the regime had sent its counterproposal to the United States via Pakistani mediators.[ii] Individuals familiar with Iran’s counterproposal told the Wall Street Journal on May 10 that Iran’s counterproposal calls for an end to the war, the “gradual opening of the Strait of Hormuz,” and the lifting of the United States’ naval blockade on Iranian ports.[iii] The United States and Iran would conduct nuclear negotiations over a 30-day period, according to the counterproposal.[iv] The individuals speaking to the Wall Street Journal stated that Iran offered to dilute some of its highly enriched uranium (HEU) stockpile and transfer the rest to a third country, but stipulated that Iran must receive guarantees that it would be able to retrieve its transferred HEU if negotiations fail or the United States exits the agreement.[v] Iran also offered to halt uranium enrichment for an unspecified period shorter than 20 years and refused to dismantle its nuclear facilities.[vi] This counterproposal bears similarities to Iran’s previous proposals, in which Iran has sought to end the war and address the Strait of Hormuz issue before engaging in nuclear negotiations with the United States.[vii] US President Donald Trump has insisted that Iran must hand over its HEU stockpile and permanently suspend uranium enrichment.[viii] President Trump posted on Truth Social on May 10 that Iran has been “playing games” with the United States and has been delaying negotiations.[ix] Israeli media reported on May 10 that Trump will call Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu today, presumably to discuss Iran’s response.[x]

Iran likely conducted attacks against a commercial vessel and some Gulf countries on May 10. These attacks may be intended to sustain high oil prices and thereby impose economic pressure on the United States in order to compel the United States to make concessions in negotiations. United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) reported on May 10 that an unspecified projectile struck the SAFESEA NEHA bulk carrier near the coast of Doha, Qatar.[xi] The Emirati and Kuwaiti defense ministries separately reported on May 10 that their air defenses intercepted Iranian drones.[xii] Iran has not claimed responsibility for these attacks, but the timing of the attacks is notable given that they correspond with Iran sending its counterproposal to the United States. Iran may have calculated that these attacks would sustain high oil prices. CTP-ISW previously assessed that some elements of the Iranian regime may calculate that Iran can impose sufficient economic pressure on the United States, including by keeping global oil prices high, to coerce the United States to make concessions.[xiii]

Iran is attempting to coerce countries into lifting economic pressure on Iran in order to be able to transit through the Strait of Hormuz. Artesh Spokesperson Brigadier General Mohammad Akraminia warned on May 10 that vessels belonging to countries that have sanctioned Iran will “face problems” if they attempt to pass through the strait.[xiv] Akraminia’s warning comes after Iran’s “Persian Gulf Strait Authority” sent an email on May 6 to shipping companies with vessels in the Persian Gulf stipulating that vessels belonging to countries that have sanctioned Iran will not be allowed to transit through the strait.[xv] This stipulation effectively requires countries that have sanctioned Iran to lift sanctions before their vessels can pass through the strait. Iran is also attempting to generate revenue by imposing a toll scheme in the strait. The email from the ”Persian Gulf Strait Authority” also demanded that vessels must pay the body in Iranian rials and gain issuances of guarantees from Iranian banks in order to ensure safe passage through the strait, which would force any country that wishes for its vessels to transit through the strait to violate US sanctions.[xvi] Iranian Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei likely referred to Iran’s toll scheme in a written statement on April 30, in which he emphasized that Iran would reap “economic gains” from its “new management” of the strait.[xvii]

Iranian media has publicized meetings between Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei and senior Iranian officials in recent days, likely to portray Mojtaba as an active decision-maker in the regime amid reports that Mojtaba has been marginalized. Iranian media reported on May 10 that Khatam ol Anbia Central Headquarters Commander Ali Abdollahi Aliabadi met with Mojtaba to brief him on the status and readiness of Iran's armed forces.[xviii] Mojtaba reportedly gave Aliabadi orders and “guiding measures” for future Iranian military operations. The Khatam ol Anbia Central Headquarters is responsible for joint and wartime operations. Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian previously accused Aliabadi and IRGC Commander Major General Ahmad Vahidi of “acting unilaterally” and “driving escalation” during the war.[xix] This report comes after Iranian state media reported on May 7 that Pezeshkian had met with Mojtaba for nearly two and a half hours.[xx] The publicization of two meetings between Mojtaba and senior Iranian officials within the span of several days may be meant to counter reports that Mojtaba has largely been sidelined by the IRGC and is not playing a central role in regime decision-making.[xxi]

Maritime Developments

See topline section.

US-Israeli Air Campaign

Nothing significant to report.

Iranian Internal Dynamics

See topline section.

Israeli Campaign Against Hezbollah and Hezbollah Response

Nothing significant to report.

Other Axis of Resistance Response

The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) reportedly established a clandestine military outpost in the Iraqi desert to support its air campaign against Iran, according to unspecified individuals familiar with the matter speaking to the Wall Street Journal on May 9.[xxii] Israeli and Western media reported that the IDF deployed commando units and search-and-rescue teams to the outpost before the start of the war on February 28 to recover Israeli pilots if Iranian forces shot down Israeli fighter jets.[xxiii] The outpost also reportedly served as a logistical hub for the Israeli Air Force.[xxiv] One source told the Wall Street Journal that the IDF conducted airstrikes targeting members of the Iraqi Security Forces (ISF) to prevent them from approaching the outpost.[xxv] An Iraqi security source told Saudi media on May 10 that the United States advised Iraqi military personnel not to approach the area where the IDF had established the outpost for “security reasons.”[xxvi] This report comes after Iraqi media reported on March 3 that the ISF had sent troops to investigate local reports that unspecified forces had landed in Anbar Province.[xxvii] The Iraqi Joint Operations Command (JOC) confirmed on March 4 that unspecified forces conducted an airstrike and fired at the responding troops, killing one Iraqi soldier, injuring two others, and damaging two ISF vehicles.[xxviii] The JOC stated on May 10 that the ISF did not find any troops or military equipment during search operations in the Iraqi desert, however.[xxix]  

IRGC Quds Force Commander Brigadier General Esmail Ghaani met with Shia Coordination Framework leaders and unspecified Iranian-backed Iraqi militia commanders to discuss government formation during a visit to Baghdad, according to an informed source speaking to Iraqi media on May 10.[xxx] The source claimed that the Iranian regime has “reservations” about the Shia Coordination Framework’s nomination of Ali al Zaydi as prime minister designate due to US support for Zaydi.[xxxi] Iraqi media reported on May 9 that Zaydi is leading a committee formed by the Shia Coordination Framework to oversee the implementation of “mechanisms” to disarm Iranian-backed Iraqi militias.[xxxii] The committee is reportedly close to finalizing a disarmament plan.[xxxiii] US President Donald Trump congratulated Zaydi on his nomination on April 30.[xxxiv]