Iran Update Evening Special Report: April 27, 2026

Data Cutoff: 2:00 PM ET

The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) and The Critical Threats Project (CTP) at the American Enterprise Institute are publishing daily updates to provide analysis on the war with Iran. The updates focus on US and Israeli strikes on Iran and Iran and the Axis of Resistance’s response to the strikes. The updates cover events from the past 24-hour period.  

NOTE: CTP-ISW will no longer publish morning social media threads starting on April 28, 2026, for the duration of the ceasefire.

Key Takeaways:

• Iran appears to be attempting to exploit its leverage over the Strait of Hormuz to end the war in a way that removes the US blockade of Iranian ports without Iran having to make nuclear concessions. Iran presented a new proposal to the United States in which it reportedly offered to “reopen” the Strait of Hormuz and end the war, while postponing US-Iran nuclear negotiations to a later date. The Iranian proposal would not force Iran to make concessions regarding its highly enriched uranium or ability to enrich uranium up front but would rather grant Iran more time to engage in talks about these nuclear issues. It is unclear if Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) Commander Major General Ahmad Vahidi and his inner circle support this new proposal.
• Iran’s rapidly depleting oil storage capacity likely explains, at least in part, why Iran is pushing for a peace agreement that would lift the US naval blockade. The Wall Street Journal reported on April 27 that the US blockade on Iranian ports has forced Iran to store oil in “disused oil tanks in poor condition” and in “containers” in the cities of Ahvaz, Khuzestan Province, and Asaluyeh, Bushehr Province, according to unspecified current and former Iranian officials.
• An Iranian delegation led by Iranian Foreign Affairs Minister Abbas Araghchi emphasized the importance of Russo-Iranian strategic relations in a meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin in St. Petersburg on April 27. Russia has facilitated Iranian strikes in the Middle East throughout the war, such as by providing Iran with satellite imagery of US, Gulf, and Turkish military assets in the Middle East.
• Hezbollah has increasingly used first-person view (FPV) drones to attack Israeli forces in Lebanon since the ceasefire came into effect on April 16. Hezbollah has claimed that it used FPV drones in 12 of its 18 claimed attacks on Israeli ground forces in Lebanon since April 16. Israeli media reported that Hezbollah has begun using fiber-optic FPV drones as its main strike platform for attacks on Israeli forces in southern Lebanon.

Toplines

Iran appears to be attempting to exploit its leverage over the Strait of Hormuz to end the war in a way that removes the US blockade of Iranian ports without Iran having to make nuclear concessions. Iran presented a new proposal to the United States in which it reportedly offered to “reopen” the Strait of Hormuz and end the war, while postponing US-Iran nuclear negotiations to a later date.[i] US President Donald Trump described the proposal on April 25 as “much better” than previous Iranian proposals but stated that the proposal is “not enough.”[ii] US Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt said on April 27 that Trump discussed the Iranian proposal with his top national security aides and reiterated that Trump seeks to ensure freedom of navigation through the strait and to remove Iran’s highly enriched uranium (HEU).[iii] The Iranian proposal would not force Iran to make concessions regarding its HEU or ability to enrich uranium up front but would rather grant Iran more time to engage in talks about these nuclear issues. It is unclear if Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) Commander Major General Ahmad Vahidi and his inner circle, which CTP-ISW continue to assess dominate Iranian decision-making, support this new proposal. One source with knowledge on the topic told Axios on April 27 that Iranian Foreign Affairs Minister Abbas Araghchi told Pakistani, Egyptian, Turkish, and Qatari mediators in recent days that there is no consensus among Iran’s leaders on how to address US demands.[iv]

Iran’s rapidly depleting oil storage capacity likely explains, at least in part, why Iran is pushing for a peace agreement that would lift the US naval blockade.[v] The Wall Street Journal reported on April 27 that the US blockade on Iranian ports has forced Iran to store oil in “disused oil tanks in poor condition” and in “containers” in the cities of Ahvaz, Khuzestan Province, and Asaluyeh, Bushehr Province, according to unspecified current and former Iranian officials.[vi] Hamid Hosseini, the spokesperson for Iran’s oil exporting union, told the Wall Street Journal that Iran is trying to send its oil to China by rail.[vii] The Wall Street Journal noted that most exporters avoid transporting oil by rail because rail shipments are less efficient and less profitable than seaborne shipments, however.[viii] The Wall Street Journal’s April 27 report is consistent with a prior April 12 estimate from a US sanctions analyst that Iran had roughly 13 days of onshore storage capacity remaining before it would be forced to shut down oil production.[ix] CTP-ISW is unable to independently assess the exact status of Iran’s onshore and offshore storage capacity. Any shutdown of Iranian oil wells could cause permanent reservoir damage, however, which would affect Iran’s ability to produce its most valuable export.[x]

An Iranian delegation led by Iranian Foreign Affairs Minister Abbas Araghchi emphasized the importance of Russo-Iranian strategic relations in a meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin in St. Petersburg on April 27.[xi] This meeting notably occurs as Iran prepares for a potential resumption of conflict with the United States and Israel. Russia has facilitated Iranian strikes in the Middle East throughout the war, such as by providing Iran with satellite imagery of US, Gulf, and Turkish military assets in the Middle East.[xii]

Hezbollah has increasingly used first-person view (FPV) drones to attack Israeli forces in Lebanon since the ceasefire came into effect on April 16.[xiii] Hezbollah has claimed that it used FPV drones in 12 of its 18 claimed attacks on Israeli ground forces in Lebanon since April 16.[xiv] Hezbollah has also posted footage of recent FPV drone attacks targeting Israeli personnel and vehicles.[xv] Some of the footage shows Hezbollah operating fiber-optic FPV drones. Israeli media reported that Hezbollah has begun using fiber-optic FPV drones as its main strike platform for attacks on Israeli forces in southern Lebanon.[xvi] Israeli media claimed that Hezbollah’s fiber-optic FPV drones have an operational range of up to 15 kilometers and can carry explosive payloads of up to six kilograms.[xvii] Fiber-optic FPV drones pose a greater threat to Israeli ground forces than rockets or other Hezbollah weapons because they are immune to jamming, difficult to intercept using conventional air defense systems, and can target individuals and vehicles with high precision.[xviii] A Hezbollah FPV drone attack killed one IDF soldier and wounded six others in Taybeh, Marjaayoun District, on April 26.[xix] Hezbollah launched a subsequent FPV drone attack targeting the same Israeli unit while it was conducting a casualty evacuation from Taybeh. Israeli soldiers shot down the FPV drone several meters away from the evacuation site.[xx]

Maritime Developments

See topline section.

US-Israeli Air Campaign

Iranian media claimed that Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) forces have recovered unexploded US missiles and are trying to “reverse engineer” them. Iranian state media claimed on April 27 that the IRGC Ground Forces Imam Sajjad Unit in Bandar Abbas, Hormozgan Province, “neutralized more than 15 heavy American missiles” and transferred them to IRGC research centers for reverse engineering.[xxi] The report also claimed that the Imam Sajjad Unit has neutralized or destroyed more than 60 missiles and drones, as well as bunker buster munitions, since the war began on February 28.[xxii] The report added that the IRGC Ground Forces Ansar ol Mehdi Unit separately recovered more than 9,500 US submunitions dispersed from cluster munitions and around 55 rockets and drones across Zanjan Province.[xxiii] CTP-ISW cannot independently verify these reports, including the types or number of weapons Iranian forces may have recovered. It would not be surprising if Iranian forces sought to reverse engineer systems that they could recover, however.

Combined force strikes during the war have degraded Iran’s steel production capacity and ability to export steel. Iranian state media reported on April 27 that Iran has banned the export of steel slabs and sheets until May 30, according to Reuters.[xxiv] Combined force strikes, including strikes on major Iranian steel producers such as the Mobarakeh Steel Company and Khuzestan Steel Company, reportedly destroyed about 25 to 30 percent of Iran’s total steel output.[xxv] Iran may have banned the export of steel products to reserve its remaining steel stockpile for domestic use, including for missile production. Iran also may have banned the export of steel products due to fears of US forces interdicting Iranian ships attempting to export steel, which is one of the Iranian items the United States has designated as contraband and subject to the US naval blockade.[xxvi]  

Iranian Response
Nothing significant to report.

Israeli Campaign Against Hezbollah and Hezbollah Response

Hezbollah “categorically” rejected the results of any direct negotiations between Israel and Lebanon and criticized the Lebanese government for engaging in direct talks with Israeli officials.[xxvii] Israeli and Lebanese officials met in Washington, DC, on April 14 and 23.[xxviii] Hezbollah Secretary General Naim Qassem said in a written statement on April 27 that the “outcomes” of Israel-Lebanon talks “do not exist for us, and they do not concern us in the slightest.”[xxix] Qassem called on the Lebanese government to end direct negotiations with Israel until five preconditions are met: a full ceasefire, Israel’s withdrawal from southern Lebanon, the release of prisoners held in Israel, the return of southern Lebanese civilians to their homes, and reconstruction.[xxx]

Hezbollah has always opposed direct engagement with Israel, but Qassem likely also fears that Israeli and Lebanese talks could lead to renewed Lebanese efforts to disarm Hezbollah, given that Hezbollah’s disarmament is an objective that the current Israeli and Lebanese governments share. Hezbollah previously attempted to prevent its complete disarmament through a combination of military and political measures, including through a cognitive warfare campaign to delay or ultimately reverse the government’s disarmament plan.[xxxi] Qassem did not directly threaten the Lebanese government but said that Hezbollah hopes that the Lebanese government “will back down” from further talks.[xxxii] Qassem also affirmed that Hezbollah would “not give up its weapons.”[xxxiii] Lebanese President Joseph Aoun responded on X that the “real traitors” are “those who dragged Lebanon into war,” likely in reference to Hezbollah.[xxxiv] Aoun emphasized that negotiating with Israel is “not treason.”[xxxv] Reports that the Lebanese army set up a checkpoint outside of lead Lebanese negotiator Simon Karam’s house in Beirut suggest that the Lebanese government is concerned about potential threats or unrest, however.[xxxvi]

An unspecified senior Hezbollah military commander told Al Jazeera that Hezbollah will return to conducting suicide attacks and using other tactics adopted in the 1980s to prevent the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) from “stabilizing” its buffer zone in southern Lebanon.[xxxvii] The commander claimed that Hezbollah has deployed “large groups of suicide bombers” to the Israeli area of operations in southern Lebanon “according to pre-established plans.”[xxxviii]

The IDF announced that it resumed airstrikes targeting Hezbollah in both southern Lebanon and the Bekaa Valley on April 27.[xxxix] A Hezbollah-aligned Lebanese correspondent reported that the IDF conducted one airstrike in the Bekaa Valley, targeting Nabi Chit in Baalbek-Hermel Province, on April 27.[xl] This strike marks the first IDF airstrike targeting the Bekaa Valley in nearly three weeks.[xli] Hezbollah threatened on April 27 to broaden its targeting of Israel if the IDF increases its scope and rate of fire in Lebanon.[xlii]

Other Axis of Resistance Response

Informed political sources told Iraqi media on April 27 that the US government sent a “strongly worded” message to several Shia Coordination Framework leaders following Iranian-backed Iraqi militia Kataib Sayyid al Shuhada leader Abu Alaa al Walai’s attendance at a recent framework meeting to discuss the framework's prime ministerial candidate.[xliii] The message reportedly stated that the United States may “reassess” the US-Iraq relationship, including its “security and economic aspects,” due to the framework’s “disregard” for US-Iraq ties.[xliv] The sources added that Walai’s attendance at the meeting came after the US State Department announced a financial reward of up to $10 million USD for information about his whereabouts.[xlv] This report comes after the United States reportedly suspended funding for some counterterrorism and Iraqi Security Forces (ISF) training programs until Iranian-backed Iraqi militia attacks cease and the Iraqi federal government takes unspecified steps to “dismantle” the militias.[xlvi] The United States has repeatedly pressured the Iraqi federal government to disarm Iranian-backed Iraqi militias and curb their influence within Iraqi government institutions.[xlvii]