Iran Update, December 24, 2025

Data Cutoff: 2:00 PM ET

CTP-ISW will not publish the Iran Update on December 25, 2025, in observance of Christmas. We will resume publication of the Iran Update on December 26, 2025, and cover all events between 2:00 pm ET on December 24 and 2:00 pm ET on December 26.

The Critical Threats Project (CTP) at the American Enterprise Institute and the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) publish the Iran Update, which provides insights into Iranian and Iranian-sponsored activities that undermine regional stability and threaten US forces and interests. CTP-ISW publishes the Iran Update daily.

Click here to see CTP and ISW’s interactive map of assessed control of terrain in Syria, and here to see CTP and ISW’s interactive map of Israeli ground operations. The Syria map is updated daily alongside the static Syria maps in this report. CTP-ISW ended daily maps of Israeli ground operations in February 2025.

Click here to see ISW-CTP's interactive map showing the total strikes in Iran during the Israel-Iran War, as well as an interactive timelapse showing the strikes day-by-day.

The Italian Institute for International Political Studies (ISPI) reported on December 24 that unspecified sources in Tehran told ISPI that Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei authorized the initial development of miniaturized nuclear warheads for ballistic missiles in October 2025.[i] ISPI is the only source that has reported information about the supreme leader authorizing the development of miniaturized nuclear warheads.[ii] This source has not previously offered in-depth analysis of or verifiable information about the Iranian nuclear program. ISPI reported that Khamenei did not authorize uranium enrichment beyond 60 percent, however.[iii] ISPI noted that producing deliverable, miniaturized nuclear warheads poses significant technical challenges and requires weapons-grade uranium enriched to 90 percent, which Iran does not currently possess.[iv]

Iran has previously explored alternative nuclear weapon paths that do not require warhead miniaturization. The New York Times reported in February 2025 that a “secret team” of Iranian weapons engineers and scientists is “exploring” a faster approach to building a nuclear weapon in a “matter of months.”[v] Unspecified US officials told the New York Times that Iran could build an “older-style nuclear weapon” using the new approach, but noted that such a weapon would not fit on a ballistic missile and would likely be less reliable than a modern weapon.[vi]

Key Takeaways

• Iranian Nuclear Weapons Development: The Italian Institute for International Political Studies (ISPI) reported on December 24 that unspecified sources in Tehran told ISPI that Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei authorized the initial development of miniaturized nuclear warheads for ballistic missiles in October 2025. ISPI is the only source that has reported information about the supreme leader authorizing the development of miniaturized nuclear warheads. Iran has previously explored alternative nuclear weapon paths that do not require warhead miniaturization.
• Russo-Syrian Relations: Syrian Foreign Minister Asaad al Shaibani met with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow on December 23 to discuss expanding military cooperation between the two countries. CTP-ISW previously assessed in October 2025 that Russia is unlikely to provide Syria with Russian arms imports or direct Russian training at a time when it is facing a materiel shortage in its war against Ukraine.

Iran

See topline section.

Iraq

Nothing significant to report.

Syria

Syrian Foreign Minister Asaad al Shaibani met with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow on December 23 to discuss expanding military cooperation between the two countries.[vii] Syrian state media reported on December 23 that Shaibani and Putin’s meeting focused on the strategic collaboration between Russian and Syrian defense industries to modernize Syrian military equipment, the transfer of Russian technological expertise to Syria, and future cooperation on research and development.[viii] Shaibani’s meeting with Putin was part of a larger Syrian government delegation visit to Moscow that likely continued negotiations over Russian basing rights in Syria.[ix] Shaibani previously met with Putin during Syrian President Ahmed al Shara’s October 2025 visit to Moscow.[x] CTP-ISW previously assessed in October 2025 that Russia is unlikely to provide Syria with Russian arms imports or direct Russian training at a time when it is facing a materiel shortage in its war against Ukraine.[xi]

Arabian Peninsula

Nothing significant to report.

Palestinian Territories and Lebanon

Nothing significant to report.