Iran Special Report: Israeli Strikes on Iran, June 14, 2025, Morning Edition

The Critical Threats Project (CTP) at the American Enterprise Institute and the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) will be publishing two updates per day while conditions in the Middle East warrant it. Our updates will provide insights into the ongoing strike on Iran's nuclear facilities, military infrastructure, and key military and nuclear program leadership. We will prioritize covering Iranian and Iranian-sponsored activities in response to the attacks that threaten US forces and interests.

We will produce two updates per day while conditions in the Middle East warrant it. This first update covers events between 2:00 PM ET on June 13 and 6:00 AM ET on June 14. The second update will cover events between 6:00 AM ET and 6:00 PM ET on June 14.

Key Takeaways

• Iran has used significantly fewer munitions in its response to Israel than originally planned because the IDF destroyed and damaged missile launchers and silos that Iran planned to use to retaliate against Israel. This is consistent with CTP-ISW’s observation that degrading Iran’s retaliatory capabilities was one objective of the initial Israeli strikes on June 12.
• The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) has continued to strike Iranian air defense systems to maintain air superiority over Iran.
• Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei appointed Brigadier General Majid Mousavi to replace Brigadier General Amir Ali Hajji Zadeh as the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) Aerospace Force commander. The IRGC Aerospace Force oversees the Iranian missile and drone programs and led the Iranian attacks against Israel in April and October 2024.
• Iran has conducted six waves of ballistic missile attacks targeting Israel from Iranian territory since the initial Israeli strikes on June 12. At least 10 interceptors, shrapnel, or ballistic missiles struck the Tel Aviv area, causing damage to high-rise buildings, over 60 injuries, and one death.
• The IDF has reportedly continued to target Iranian military targets. Some of these strikes—but not all—seek to degrade Iran’s retaliatory capabilities.

Iran has used significantly fewer munitions in its response to Israel than originally planned because the IDF destroyed and damaged missile launchers and silos that Iran planned to use to retaliate against Israel. This is consistent with CTP-ISW’s observation that degrading Iran’s retaliatory capabilities was one objective of the initial Israeli strikes on June 12. Two IRGC members speaking to the New York Times stated that Iran originally planned to launch 1,000 ballistic missiles at Israel in response to the Israeli strikes on Iran.[i] Iran only launched around 200 ballistic missiles at Israel in six attack waves, however.[ii] The IRGC members stated that Israeli strikes on Iranian missile bases ”made it impossible to move missiles quickly from storage and place them on launchpads.”[iii] Satellite imagery shows that the IDF damaged the Amand and Southwest Tabriz missile bases.[iv] The Amand Missile Base, which is located north of Tabriz, reportedly stores Ghadr medium-range ballistic missiles.[v] Iran previously used Ghadr missiles in its April and October 2024 attacks on Israel.[vi] The Southwest Tabriz Missile Base reportedly stores Shahab-variant missiles.[vii] The IDF separately confirmed that it struck the Artesh Air Force 2nd Tactical Airbase in Tabriz.[viii] The IDF reported that it destroyed the Tabriz Artesh airbase.[ix] The Artesh airbase reportedly stored SA-6 Gainful surface-to-air missiles, which suggests that Israel destroyed the base so that the Artesh could not defend missile bases near the base against Israeli strikes.[x] The Amand Missile Base is located around 11 miles away from the Artesh Air Force 2nd Tactical Airbase.[xi]

Satellite imagery also shows that Israeli strikes damaged the Bakhtaran (Panj Pelleh) underground missile base in Kermanshah and the IRGC Ghadir Site in Tehran.[xii] The Bakhtaran (Panj Pelleh) underground missile base reportedly stores Qiam-1 and Fateh-110 ballistic missiles.[xiii] A missile proliferation expert stated that the Ghadir Site could be related to Kheibar Shekan and Fattah missile integration.[xiv] Iran previously used Kheybar Shekan missiles in its April and October 2024 attacks on Israel.[xv]

Iran has conducted six waves of ballistic missile attacks targeting Israel from Iranian territory since the initial Israeli strikes on June 12.[xvi] Iran has also launched at least two waves of one-way attack drones targeting Israel.[xvii] Most Iranian ballistic missiles or Israeli interceptor impacts occurred in Tel Aviv District.[xviii] At least 10 interceptors, shrapnel, or ballistic missiles struck the Tel Aviv area, causing damage to high-rise buildings, over 60 injuries, and one death.[xix] A ballistic missile impact south of Tel Aviv in Rishon LeZion killed two Israeli civilians, injured 20, and damaged homes.[xx] The IDF said that Israeli air defenses did not intercept at least 10 of the 200 ballistic missiles that were on trajectory to hit populated areas.[xxi] CTP-ISW has not observed any drone impacts at the time of this writing.[xxii] The IDF said on June 14 that Iranian attacks have not damaged the ”capability and functional continuity” of IDF bases.[xxiii] Iranian state media is incentivized to exaggerate the success of the attack and may spread misleading information, including claims that ballistic missile attacks killed senior members of the Israeli military command structure or struck important military sites in Tel Aviv.[xxiv] CTP-ISW has not observed evidence that supports these claims.

The IDF  has reportedly continued to target Iranian military targets. Some of these strikes—but not all—seek to degrade Iran’s retaliatory capabilities. Unverified reports claim that the IDF struck several Iranian military sites between June 13 and 14.[xxv] The reported sites include a naval base near Abadan, Khuzestan Province, a 216th Armored Brigade ammunition depot in Zanjan, Zanjan Province, and an IRGC missile base in Kermanshah.[xxvi]

Israel assessed that Iran could have an arsenal of 8,000 ballistic missiles within two years, according to an unspecified Israeli intelligence official speaking to a Fox News journalist.[xxvii] US and Israeli estimates were that Iran had about 2,000 missiles prior to the Israeli air campaign. This count does not differentiate between medium-range ballistic missiles, which can reach Israel, and short- or close-range ballistic missiles, which could strike US bases in the Persian Gulf but not Israel. Western reports in recent months have indicated that Iran has been expanding its industrial capacity to build more missiles.[xxviii]

The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) has continued to strike Iranian air defense systems to maintain air superiority over Iran.[xxix] A Fox News correspondent reported on June 14 that the IDF has struck 40 Iranian air defense systems since the start of the Israeli air campaign on June 12, citing a senior Israeli intelligence official.[xxx] The IDF struck dozens of targets, including air defense systems, in Tehran overnight between June 13 and 14.[xxxi] Israeli Air Force Commander Major General Tomer Bar stated that the strikes “improve [Israel’s] air superiority and freedom of action in Iran.”[xxxii] Air superiority, which falls between air parity and air supremacy, means a friendly force can operate without "prohibitive" interference from the opposing force.[xxxiii] Tomer Bar also stated that “the road to Iran has been paved” thanks to the destruction of Iranian air defense systems.[xxxiv] CTP-ISW previously noted that the destruction of components of Iran’s air defense network will cause a temporary disruption to Iranian defenses that will enable Israeli 4th-generation, non-stealthy aircraft to operate in Iranian airspace with greater ease.[xxxv]

Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei appointed Brigadier General Majid Mousavi to replace Brigadier General Amir Ali Hajji Zadeh as the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) Aerospace Force commander.[xxxvi] Mousavi previously served as the deputy commander of the IRGC Aerospace Force.[xxxvii] The IRGC Aerospace Force oversees the Iranian missile and drone programs and led the Iranian attacks against Israel in April and October 2024. The United States and the United Kingdom previously sanctioned Mousavi in 2024 for his role in developing the Iranian ballistic missile program.[xxxviii] Iranian media reported that Mousavi worked closely with Hajji Zadeh and Hassan Tehrani Moghaddam, who spearheaded the Iranian missile program, to establish missile bases across Iran.[xxxix] Mousavi has also supported the development of Iran’s drone and space programs.[xl] Khamenei previously appointed three senior military commanders to replace Armed Forces General Staff Chief Major General Mohammad Bagheri, IRGC Commander Major General Hossein Salami, and Khatam ol Anbia Central Headquarters Commander Major General Gholam Ali Rashid on June 13.[xli]

The IDF reported on June 14 that it had killed nine senior Iranian nuclear scientists.[xlii] The IDF claimed these scientists were central figures in Iran’s nuclear program. Iranian media confirmed on June 14 that the IDF killed the following three nuclear scientists:[xliii]

• Ali Bakaei Karimi: Nuclear specialist. The IDF said that Karimi was a “mechanics specialist.”[xliv]
• Mansour Asgari: Former Iranian Organization of Defensive Innovation and Research (SPND) research chief. He was involved in Iran’s nuclear weapons-related work under the Amad Project, including Electron Beam Welding (EBW) detonators. The United States sanctioned Asghari in 2019.[xlv] The Amad Project was Iran’s nuclear weapons program before 2003.
• Saeed Borji: Explosives and metals expert for SPND’s Shahid Karimi Group, linked to procurement for explosive containment. The United States sanctioned Borji in 2019.[xlvi]

In addition to striking nuclear and military infrastructure, Israel has conducted a decapitation campaign targeting Iranian military leadership.[xlvii] Israeli strikes have killed the senior military officials:  

• Intelligence of the Armed Forces General Staff Deputy Brigadier General Golam Reza Mehrabi.[xlviii]
• Operational of the Armed Forces General Staff Deputy Brigadier General Mehdi Rabbani
• Iranian Supreme Leader Adviser Ali Shamkhani

The IDF announced it had killed Shamkhani on June 13.[xlix] The IDF targeted Shamkhani on June 12.[l] Shamkhani oversaw Iranian nuclear negotiations with the United States.[li] Shamkhani was the Supreme National Security Council Secretary from 2013 to 2023.[lii] Shamkhani led Iran’s delegation in the 2023 China-brokered talks with Saudi Arabia that restored Iran-Saudi diplomatic ties.[liii]

There are unverified reports claiming Israel targeted the Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant.[liv] The IDF caused unspecified “limited” damage to the Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant. The Fordow site is especially hardened against str,ikes as much of the facility extends deep underground. Atomic Energy Organization of Iran Spokesperson Behrouz Kamalvandi confirmed on June 13 that the IDF strikes caused “limited” damage to parts of the Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant and warehouses at the Esfahan Nuclear Technology Center (ENTC).[lv] Kamalvandi claimed that Iran had moved “key equipment” out of several nuclear facilities in advance, which prevented more extensive destruction and contamination.[lvi] Now-deceased former Iranian Supreme Leader Adviser Ali Shamkhani previously stated in April 2025 that Iran could move enriched uranium to “safe and unknown locations” if external threats and military pressure continue.[lvii] Kamalvandi’s statement about some damage at Fordow aligns with earlier unverified reports claiming the IDF reportedly targeted the Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant.  International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Director General Rafael Grossi stated on June 13 the that Iranian government informed the IAEA that Israel the targeted Fordow facilities.[lviii] Grossi alsoSecuritye UN security Council on June 13 that Israeli strikes destroyed the above-ground enrichment facility in Natanz.

Iranian media reported on June 13 that an Israeli strike killed one Artesh colonel and one soldier at the Hazrat-e Masoumeh air defense site in Qom Province, which protects the nuclear facility at Fordow.[lix] The air defense site, also known as the Fordow Air Defense Group, sits roughly 16 km east of the Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant (FFEP).[lx] Khatam ol Anbia Air Defense Commander Brigadier General Alireza Sabahi Fard previously inspected the site on April 16 to assess operational readiness.[lxi]

Some of Iran’s partners and proxies in the Axis of Resistance have failed to meaningfully intervene and impose costs on Israel for targeting Iran so far. The IDF intercepted three drones launched from Houthi-controlled areas of Yemen on June 13.[lxii] The Houthis also fired one ballistic missile targeting Israel earlier in the day.[lxiii] Israeli air defenses intercepted all Houthi projectiles.[lxiv] Houthi drone and ballistic missile attacks are not an inflection or new constraint on air defense bandwidth for Israel because the Houthis have regularly struck Israel with drones and missiles since November 2024.[lxv] These attacks do further constrain Israeli air defense bandwidth when combined with Iranian attacks, of course. Likely Hamas fighters launched two rockets from the Gaza Strip targeting Israel that did not advance past the fence perimeter of the Gaza Strip on June 14.[lxvi] Lebanese Hezbollah has not participated in the conflict at the time of this writing. These groups all released generic statements condemning the Israeli strikes on June 13.[lxvii]