Congo War Security Review, October 8, 2025

Data Cutoff: October 8, 2025, at 1 P.M. EST 

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Key Takeaway: The sixth round of Qatari-mediated talks between the Congolese government and M23 will reportedly not take place until next week. M23 broke through pro-Congolese government positions and continued its westward advance on the RP503 in Shabunda district in South Kivu. M23 clashed with pro-Congolese government forces south of Nzibira toward Mwenga district in South Kivu. The UN repatriated nearly 400 Rwandan refugees to Rwanda from the eastern DRC as part of the US-backed peace accord.

Kinetic Activity in Rutshuru & Eastern Masisi Districts

Nothing significant to report. 

Northern Axis: Lubero-Butembo-Beni-Bunia 

Nothing significant to report. 

Southern Axis: Bukavu-Uvira-Baraka-Kalemie  

Nothing significant to report.

Northwest Axis: Masisi-Walikale-Lubutu-Kisangani 

M23 took control of two villages south of the Masisi district capital in North Kivu. Congolese media reported that M23 captured Luke and Mulema villages from pro-Congolese government Wazalendo fighters on October 6.[i] Luke is about 13 miles south of Masisi town and 14 miles west of Rubaya on local roads. M23 had reportedly reinforced its positions around Luke in early October before launching attacks in the area.[ii]

M23 clashed with Wazalendo fighters in a village southwest of Masisi town. The Congolese media outlet Actualite.cd reported that M23 attacked Wazalendo positions in Kazinga on October 6 after reinforcing its positions near the village.[iii] Kazinga is about 17 miles southwest of Masisi on a local road. M23 last clashed with Wazalendos near Kazinga in early September.[iv]

M23 clashed with Wazalendo fighters in southern Masisi near the border with South Kivu. The Congolese media outlet Kivu Morning Post reported that M23 clashed with Wazalendo fighters in at least four villages, including Kashovu, in the Ufamandu group in southern Masisi on October 7.[v] Kashovu is roughly 26 miles southwest of the mining town of Rubaya in Masisi.

Southwest Axis: Bukavu-Kamituga-Shabunda-Kindu 

M23 broke through pro-Congolese government positions and continued its westward advance on the RP503 in Shabunda district in South Kivu. M23 reportedly broke through Wazalendo and Congolese army (FARDC) and Burundian army (FDNB) positions in Kibandamangobo and Mayimingi villages on the RP503 and advanced about five miles west to Nyalubemba village on October 7.[vi] M23 had captured Lubimbe village and then advanced to Kibandamangobo—the last two villages in Walungu district on the RP503—before clashing with enemy fighters in Mayimingi, the first village in Shabunda, between October 4 and October 6.[vii] FARDC leadership said that M23 could use Kibandamangobo as a staging area to pursue offensives on several lines of advance.[viii]

M23 clashed with pro-Congolese government forces south of Nzibira toward Mwenga district in South Kivu. Congolese media reported that M23 clashed with pro-Congolese government forces in Luntukulu village on October 7.[ix] Luntukulu is about 10 miles south of Nzibira on a local road. M23 fighters had advanced to Luntukulu and the nearby Ndiba village in late September but reportedly did not take full control of the area until around October 3.[x] The Congolese media outlet Radio Maendelelo had reported that the FARDC and FDNB ordered Wazalendo fighters to retreat in the wake of M23’s advance and recently sent reinforcements to northern Mwenga to counter potential M23 attacks.[xi]

M23 clashed with pro-Congolese government forces north of Nzibira in southern Kabare district in South Kivu. The Congolese media outlet Tazama RDC reported that M23 clashed with FARDC and Wazalendo fighters in Luhago, a remote village about eight miles north of Nzibira, in the Nindja chiefdom in southern Kabare on October 7.[xii] M23 had clashed with pro-Congolese government forces in Nindja in late September before launching new attacks in Luhago and other nearby villages on October 4.[xiii]

Major Political Developments 

The sixth round of Qatari-mediated talks between the Congolese government and M23 will reportedly not take place until next week. Congolese and Rwandan media reported on October 8 that the two sides tentatively plan to meet in Qatar for the next round on October 13.[xiv] Oscar Balinda, M23’s deputy spokesperson, told the Rwandan media outlet The New Times on October 7 that M23 would not seek to advance the talks unless there was progress on prisoner exchange and reviving the ceasefire.[xv] The two sides will reportedly try to resolve significant disagreements on the prisoner exchange issue in the next round.[xvi] French state media reported previously that the talks could be delayed if the two sides did not finalize an agreement that establishes a permanent ceasefire mechanism and delineates the role of UN forces in M23-controlled areas ahead of the negotiations.[xvii] Both issues have been key obstacles to opening more substantive discussions around a long-term peace deal.

The UN repatriated nearly 400 Rwandan refugees to Rwanda from the eastern DRC as part of the US-backed peace accord. The UN repatriated between 387 to 403 Rwandan refugees to Rwanda from M23-controlled Goma via the Grande Barrière border post on October 8.[xviii] The Rwandan Minister of Emergency Management said on October 6 that Rwanda has repatriated 3,974 refugees since January with over 1,000 of those refugees returning to Rwanda in August and September.[xix] The DRC, Rwanda, and the UN had signed an agreement in late July that aimed to find solutions to the refugee crisis and expedite refugee repatriations as part of the US-backed peace accord.[xx]