Congo War Security Review, July 7, 2025

Data Cutoff: July 7, 2025, at 1 P.M. EST

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Read CTP’s latest analysis on the US-brokered peace deal between the DRC and Rwanda in US-DRC-Rwanda Peace Deal—A Beginning, Not an End.

Read CTP’s assessment on former DRC President Joseph Kabila’s return to the DRC here.

Read CTP’s latest analysis on the war in the eastern DRC in the weekly Africa File here.

Key Takeaway: The DRC and M23 are set to convene for a fifth round of Qatari-mediated peace talks this week. M23 officials denied that a final Qatari-mediated agreement is close, accused the DRC government of undermining the talks, and set several preconditions for future talks. Rwandan President Paul Kagame expressed skepticism that the US-brokered agreement with the DRC will bring peace to the eastern DRC. Pro-Congolese government Wazalendo fighters clashed with M23 in the Bwito chiefdom in Rutshuru district in North Kivu.

Significant Activity in Rutshuru & Eastern Masisi Districts

Pro-Congolese government Wazalendo fighters clashed with M23 in the Bwito chiefdom in Rutshuru district. The Congolese media outlet Radio Okapi reported that Wazalendos clashed with M23 using light and heavy weaponry in several groups, including in Kihondo, Bambo, and Bukombo, from July 3 and 6.[i] Radio Okapi reported that Wazalendo fighters are attempting to dislodge M23 from several areas in Bwito.[ii] The outlet reported that locals in Bwito have “completely deserted” several villages on the RP1030, including Nyanzale and Kikuku, due to the fighting in recent weeks.[iii]

Northern Axis: Lubero-Butembo-Beni-Bunia

Nothing significant to report.

Southern Axis: Bukavu-Uvira-Baraka-Kalemie

Nothing significant to report.

Northwest Axis: Masisi-Walikale-Lubutu-Kisangani

M23 clashed with pro-Congolese government forces in a remote area in Walikale district in North Kivu. The Congolese media outlet Actualite.cd reported that M23 clashed with the Congolese army and Wazalendo fighters in the hills near Katobi in the Kisimba group in Walikale district on July 6.[iv] Katobi is located roughly 8 miles east of Pinga, a military and logistical hub in northern Masisi district, on the RP1030. Actualite.cd reported separately on July 3 that M23 had reinforced its positions in several villages in Kisimba and to the south on the border with Masisi district near Nyabiondo.[v]

Southwest Axis: Bukavu-Kamituga-Shabunda-Kindu

Nothing significant to report.

Major Political Developments

The DRC and M23 are set to convene for a fifth round of Qatari-mediated peace talks this week. Massad Boulos, US President Trump’s Africa envoy, told France 24 on July 3 that the two sides would meet again soon in Doha, the Qatari capital, for what he said would be the “last and final round.”[vi] Congolese and M23 officials both confirmed that their respective sides would return to Doha for the talks.[vii] Boulos said that the United States would participate in the latest round of talks.[viii] A pro-M23 source said on social media that the talks would begin early this week.[ix] Boulos told France 24 that the two sides had reached a final agreement, which would be “fine-tuned” in the next round of talks.[x] French media reported in early July that Qatar has continued to try to broker a final agreement but that the talks have stalled over counterproposals and non-starter demands from both sides.[xi]

M23 officials denied that a final Qatari-mediated agreement is close, accused the DRC government of undermining the talks, and set several preconditions for future talks, however. M23 officials—including M23’s lead negotiator in Doha, Benjamin Mbonimpa—held a press conference in Goma where they denied Boulos’ statement that the two sides are nearing a final agreement on July 3.[xii] M23 said that the US-brokered agreement between the DRC and Rwanda was an “important step” but that “our problems are different from what was discussed in Washington.”[xiii] M23 demanded that the DRC government implement eight “confidence-building measures,” which the group said are “essential for facilitating productive talks as initially required.”[xiv] Several of the preconditions are demands that M23 has listed since the Qatari-mediated talks began.[xv] M23 accused the DRC government of obstructing the peace process, delaying the talks, and sending a delegation without decision-making authority to Doha.[xvi] The DRC foreign minister said that the DRC would refer M23’s eight preconditions to the Doha process during a press conference on July 3.[xvii]

Rwandan President Paul Kagame expressed skepticism that the US-brokered agreement will bring peace in the eastern DRC. Kagame said during a press conference on July 4 that Rwanda would implement the US-brokered agreement but that the DRC’s unwillingness to neutralize the Forces démocratiques de libération du Rwanda (FDLR) would “indefinitely prolong the problems” between the DRC and Rwanda.[xviii] Kagame claimed that the FDLR remains a security threat to Rwanda and that Rwanda would continue to take unilateral military action under the pretext of the FDLR threat in the eastern DRC if the DRC “plays tricks.”[xix] Kagame said that Rwanda would implement the US-brokered agreement but that it was not sufficient to address the security crisis in the eastern DRC.[xx] Kagame said that US-brokered agreement and the Qatari-mediated talks between the DRC and M23 must be seen as “two sides of the same coin.”[xxi] Kagame dismissed the UN’s recent report that Rwanda provided substantial military backing to M23 in early 2025.[xxii]