Iran Special Report: Strikes on Iran, June 15, 2025, Evening Edition

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Information Cutoff: 6:00 PM ET

The Critical Threats Project (CTP) at the American Enterprise Institute and the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) will be publishing two updates over the next 24 hours from June 15-16, 2025, to provide insights into the ongoing strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities, military infrastructure, and key military and nuclear program leadership. We will continue to produce Iran Update special editions until the strikes conclude. We will prioritize covering Iranian and Iranian-sponsored activities in response to the attacks that threaten US forces and interests.  

Key Takeaways

• The IDF expanded its air campaign into Iran by beginning to strike regime institutions, including some related to internal security and social control. This comes the day after the IDF began striking energy infrastructure. The degradation of the Iranian coercive apparatus coupled with energy shortages could destabilize the regime.
• The IDF conducted its furthest strike eastward as part of its efforts to establish air superiority over Iran. The IDF specifically struck an Artesh airbase around Mashhad in northeastern Khorasan Razavi Province. Most of the Israeli strikes targeting air defenses have been around western and central Iran thus far.
• Iran has continued its missile campaign targeting Israel, having launched 10 total barrages at the time of this writing. Two of these barrages occurred in recent hours. The IDF has intercepted around 92 percent of the missiles that Iran has fired at Israel thus far, according to an Israeli official speaking to Reuters.

The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) expanded its ongoing air campaign on June 15 to target Iranian governance institutions, some of which are related to internal security. The expansion of targets to include regime institutions comes after the IDF expanded its air campaign on June 14 to include critical Iranian energy infrastructure.[i] CNN geolocated footage of smoke near the Justice Ministry in western Tehran on June 15.[ii] Israeli strikes also targeted the Iranian Foreign Affairs Ministry in Tehran.[iii] The IDF also reportedly struck institutions that are part of the Iranian internal security apparatus, including the Ministry of Intelligence and Security (MOIS) and the Law Enforcement Command (LEC) headquarters.[iv] The LEC has many subordinate units, including the Prevention and Operations Police, which commands law enforcement stations across Iran, and Special Units, a highly trained, anti-riot force that deploys when regular police cannot contain civil disorder.[v] Disruption to institutions like the LEC could degrade the regime's ability to maintain internal security and social control. These internal security functions are particularly important given that recent Israeli strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure will likely worsen Iran’s ongoing energy crisis and lead to more widespread and frequent electricity shortages and outages. Frustration over energy shortages could trigger internal unrest.

An outlet controlled by the Iranian Armed Forces General Staff published an article calling for the deployment of the Basij across Iran in order to promote internal security and regime stability.[vi] The Basij is a paramilitary organization that recruits and organizes regime loyalists and uses them to produce and disseminate propaganda, suppress internal dissent, and conduct civil defense operations. The article called for the Basij to “conduct widespread patrols and establish stop-and-search [posts].” The article argued that these activities are necessary to counter Mossad infiltration across Iran. The regime would almost certainly use such Basij activities to identify dissidents and suppress any nascent protest activity.

The IDF expanded its air campaign geographically on June 15 as part of its efforts to establish air superiority over Iranian airspace.[vii] The IDF struck an aerial refueling aircraft at Mashhad Airport in northeastern Iran. Mashhad Airport is approximately 2,300 kilometers from Israel, which makes the strike on the airport the deepest strike that Israeli aircraft have conducted in Iranian territory since the start of the Israeli air campaign on June 12.[viii] The Artesh Air Force 14th Tactical Airbase is co-located at Mashhad Airport.[ix] The IDF also struck Mehrabad International Airport in central Tehran on June 15.[x] The Artesh Air Force 1st Tactical Airbase is co-located at Mehrabad International Airport.[xi] The IDF reported that it continued to strike surface-to-air missile systems in western Iran.[xii] Israeli strikes on Iranian air defenses systems and military airports will degrade Iran’s ability to restrict Israeli operations in its airspace.

The IDF struck a reported IRGC warehouse in Anahita neighborhood, Kermanshah City, on June 15.[xiii] A London-based Iranian human rights organization posted a video on June 15 reportedly showing the aftermath of the Israeli strikes on two of the buildings at the IRGC facility in Kermanshah.[xiv]  

The IDF continued to target defense industrial sites, including facilities that produce missile navigation systems, missile fuel, surface-to-surface missiles, and components for IRGC air defense systems.[xv]

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu confirmed on June 15 that an Israeli airstrike killed IRGC Intelligence Organization Chief Brigadier General Mohammad Kazemi and his deputy, Hassan Mohaghegh.[xvi] The strike also killed IRGC intelligence officer Mohsen Bagheri.[xvii] Kazemi previously led the IRGC Counterintelligence Organization and was therefore responsible for internal monitoring of the Iranian armed forces.[xviii] Kazemi replaced former IRGC Intelligence Organization Chief Hossein Taeb in 2022.[xix] Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei reportedly dismissed Taeb due to incompetence after the IRGC Intelligence Organization failed to prevent several Israeli assassinations and covert operations in Iran.[xx]

Iran has conducted 10 waves of ballistic missile attacks targeting Israel from Iranian territory since the start of the Israeli air campaign against Iran on July 12. Iran has conducted two waves of ballistic missile attacks since CTP-ISW's 6:00 AM ET data cutoff on June 15.[xxi] The IDF reported that Iran launched “several missiles” at Israel in the first wave but that none of the missiles landed in Israeli territory.[xxii] Iran launched a second wave of missiles targeting Haifa in northern Israel.[xxiii] Israeli media reported that Iran launched approximately 30 missiles in the second wave.[xxiv] An Iranian ballistic missile struck a building in Haifa, injuring two Israeli civilians.[xxv] The IDF has thus far intercepted about 92 percent of the Iranian munitions that Iran has launched at Israel as part of its Operation True Promise III, according to Israeli officials speaking to Reuters.[xxvi]

Several Iranian-backed Iraqi militias have released statements condemning the Israeli air campaign against Iran but have not claimed any retaliatory attacks against Israel or the United States at the time of this writing. Asaib Ahl al Haq (AAH) Spokesperson Jawad al Talibawi warned the United States against supporting the Israeli air campaign against Iran on June 15.[xxvii] Talibawi’s warning comes after Kataib Hezbollah (KH) threatened to attack US forces and other unspecified targets in the region if the United States intervenes in the conflict.[xxviii] Iranian-backed Iraqi militias may target the United States even if it does not directly participate in or approve Israeli attacks on Iran because Iran and its proxies believe that the United States approves Israeli actions in the region.