Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 15, 2025

Click here to see ISW’s interactive map of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. This map is updated daily alongside the static maps present in this report.

Click here to see ISW's interactive map of Ukraine's offensive in Kursk Oblast.

Click here to see ISW’s 3D control of terrain topographic map of Ukraine. Use of a computer (not a mobile device) is strongly recommended for using this data-heavy tool.

Click here to access ISW’s archive of interactive time-lapse maps of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. These maps complement the static control-of-terrain map that ISW produces daily by showing a dynamic frontline. ISW will update this time-lapse map archive monthly.

Note: The data cut-off for this product was 11:30 am ET on June 15. ISW will cover subsequent reports in the June 16 Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment.

Russian President Vladimir Putin continues to portray Russia as an effective and necessary international partner for the United States amid ongoing Iran-Israel tensions. US President Donald Trump stated on June 14 that he and Putin spoke by phone for about an hour about the ongoing Israel-Iran strikes and spent “much less” time talking about Ukraine than Iran.[1] Russian Presidential Aide Yuriy Ushakov stated on June 14 that Putin and Trump mainly spoke about military escalation in the Middle East.[2] Ushakov claimed that Putin expressed concern over the escalation of tensions between Iran and Israel and offered Russia’s assistance in negotiating a peace settlement. Trump stated that he reminded Putin that the war against Ukraine must end during the call.[3] Putin is likely attempting to distract from his ongoing war of aggression against Ukraine by offering to help the United States mediate the situation in the Middle East.[4]

Russia conducted a large drone and missile strike against Ukraine on the night of June 14 to 15, primarily targeting Poltava Oblast. The Ukrainian Air Force reported that Russian forces launched two Kh-47M2 Kinzhal aeroballistic missiles from Astrakhan Oblast, one Iskander-M/KN-23 ballistic missile from Kursk Oblast, four Iskander-K cruise missiles from Rostov Oblast, and four Kalibr cruise missiles from the Black Sea region.[5] Russian forces also launched 183 Shahed and decoy drones from the directions of Kursk, Oryol, and Bryansk cities; Shatalovo, Smolensk Oblast; Millerovo, Rostov Oblast; and Primorsko-Akhtarsk, Krasnodar Krai. The Ukrainian Air Force reported that Ukrainian forces downed two Kinzhal missiles, three Iskander-K missiles, three Kalibr missiles, and 111 drones, and that 48 drones were “lost” or suppressed by Ukrainian electronic warfare (EW) systems. Ukrainian officials reported that the strikes mainly targeted energy, agricultural, and civilian infrastructure in Poltava Oblast.[6] Poltava Oblast Military Administration Head Volodymyr Kohut stated that Russian forces launched drones and missiles at energy and agricultural infrastructure facilities in Kremenchuk, Poltava Oblast, and at civilian infrastructure in Chutivskyi, Poltava Oblast.[7] The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) claimed that Russian forces targeted an oil refinery in Poltava Oblast.[8]

Russia repatriated the bodies of over 1,000 Ukrainian citizens on June 15, in accordance with the June 2 Ukrainian–Russian bilateral talks in Istanbul. The Ukrainian Coordination Headquarters for the Treatment of Prisoners of War (POWs) reported on June 15 that Russia returned another 1,200 bodies of Ukrainian citizens, including military personnel.[9] ISW cannot independently verify whether the Ukrainian bodies released by Russia were of those killed in action or in captivity. Ukrainian Defense Minister Rustem Umerov stated on June 15 that Ukrainian authorities will work to identify the repatriated bodies.[10] Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky stated on June 14 that Ukrainian officials expect to continue conducting POW exchanges with Russia during the week of June 16–23.[11]

Key Takeaways:

• Russian President Vladimir Putin continues to portray Russia as an effective and necessary international partner for the United States amid ongoing Iran-Israel tensions.
• Russia conducted a large drone and missile strike against Ukraine on the night of June 14 to 15, primarily targeting Poltava Oblast.
• Russia repatriated the bodies of over 1,000 Ukrainian citizens on June 15, in accordance with the June 2 Ukrainian–Russian bilateral talks in Istanbul.
• Russian forces advanced in northern Sumy Oblast and near Kupyansk, Siversk, Chasiv Yar, and Toretsk.

We do not report in detail on Russian war crimes because these activities are well-covered in Western media and do not directly affect the military operations we are assessing and forecasting. We will continue to evaluate and report on the effects of these criminal activities on the Ukrainian military and the Ukrainian population and specifically on combat in Ukrainian urban areas. We utterly condemn Russian violations of the laws of armed conflict and the Geneva Conventions and crimes against humanity even though we do not describe them in these reports.  

• Ukrainian Operations in the Russian Federation
• Russian Supporting Effort – Northern Axis
• Russian Main Effort – Eastern Ukraine (comprised of three subordinate main efforts)
• Russian Subordinate Main Effort #1 – Push Ukrainian forces back from the international border with Belgorod Oblast and approach to within tube artillery range of Kharkiv City
• Russian Subordinate Main Effort #2 – Capture the remainder of Luhansk Oblast and push westward into eastern Kharkiv Oblast and encircle northern Donetsk Oblast
• Russian Subordinate Main Effort #3 – Capture the entirety of Donetsk Oblast, the claimed territory of Russia’s proxies in Donbas, and possibly advance into Dnipropetrovsk Oblast
• Russian Supporting Effort – Southern Axis
• Russian Air, Missile, and Drone Campaign
• Significant Activity in Belarus

Ukrainian Operations in the Russian Federation

Russian forces continued offensive operations in Kursk Oblast on June 15 but did not advance.

Russian forces conducted offensive operations in unspecified areas of Kursk Oblast on June 14 and 15.[12] A Russian milblogger claimed on June 14 that Russian forces are fighting near Novyi Put (northwest of Sudzha).[13] Russian milbloggers claimed on June 14 and 15 that Ukrainian forces counterattacked toward the border south of Glushkovo (northwest of Sudzha) and Tetkino (west of Sudzha).[14]

Order of Battle: Elements of the Russian 30th Motorized Rifle Regiment (72nd Motorized Rifle Division, 44th Army Corps [AC], Leningrad Military District [LMD]) are reportedly operating in Kursk Oblast.[15] Elements of the Russian 217th Airborne (VDV) Regiment (98th VDV Division) are reportedly striking Ukrainian positions near Tetkino.[16]

Neither Ukrainian nor Russian sources reported ground activity in northwestern Belgorod Oblast on June 15.

Ukrainian forces conducted a series of drone and sabotage operations on Russian territory on June 14 and 15. Sources from the Ukrainian Main Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) told Ukrainian Ministry of Defense's (MoD) news agency ArmyInform on June 15 that Ukrainian special forces infiltrated an industrial electrical substation in Kaliningrad City and drained the coolant from the substation's power transformer before setting the facility on fire.[17] Ukrainian defense-focused news outlet Militarnyi reported on June 15 that Ukrainian drones struck the Butulinovka Airbase in Buturlinovsky raion, Voronezh Oblast, from which Russian forces operate Su-34 fighter bombers.[18] Militarnyi, Russian opposition outlet Astra, and Russian sources reported on June 15 that a Ukrainian drone struck an automobile plant in the Alabuga Special Economic Zone (SEZ) in the Republic of Tatarstan on June 14.[19] Russia notably produces Shahed-type drones at the Alabuga SEZ, although it remains unclear if the strikes damaged Shahed production capabilities.[20]

Russian Supporting Effort – Northern Axis (Russian objective: Create defensible buffer zones in northern Ukraine along the international border and approach to within tube artillery range of Sumy City)

Russian forces advanced in Sumy Oblast within the last two weeks.

Assessed Russian advances: Geolocated footage published on May 30 and geolocated on June 14 indicates that Russian forces advanced near Myropillya (northeast of Sumy City) in late May.[21] Russian forces have been attempting to advance near Myropillya since April, and this is the first assessed advance near the settlement.[22]

Unconfirmed claims: A Russian milblogger claimed on June 14 and 15 that Russian forces seized Yablunivka (north of Sumy City).[23] Russian milbloggers claimed that Russian forces advanced toward Khrapivshchyna, seized Mala Korchakivka (both north of Sumy City), and advanced east of Oleksandriya (northeast of Sumy City).[24]

Russian forces attacked north of Sumy City near Novomykolaivka and Mala Korchakivka and toward Pysarivka; northeast of Sumy City near Oleksandriya, Yablunivka, Sadky, and Yunakivka; and east of Sumy City near Prohody and Myropilske on June 14 and 15.[25] Russian milbloggers claimed that Ukrainian forces counterattacked south of Kindrativka and along the Nova Sich-Mala Korchakivka line (all north of Sumy City).[26]

Russian Main Effort – Eastern Ukraine

Russian Subordinate Main Effort #1 – Kharkiv Oblast (Russian objective: Push Ukrainian forces back from the international border with Belgorod Oblast and approach to within tube artillery range of Kharkiv City)

Russian forces continued offensive operations in northern Kharkiv Oblast on June 15 but did not make confirmed advances.

Russian forces continued assaults north of Kharkiv City near Lyptsi and northeast of Kharkiv City near Vovchansk and Starytsya on June 14 and 15.[27]

Russian Subordinate Main Effort #2 – Luhansk Oblast (Russian objective: Capture the remainder of Luhansk Oblast and push westward into eastern Kharkiv Oblast and northern Donetsk Oblast)

Russian forces recently advanced in the Kupyansk direction.

Assessed Russian advances: Geolocated footage published on June 13 indicates that Russian forces recently advanced southwest of Krasne Pershe (north of Kupyansk) and likely seized additional positions on the west (right) bank of the Oskil River.[28]

Russian forces continued offensive operations north of Kupyansk near Kamyanka, Krasne Pershe, Kindrashivka, and Holubivka and east of Kupyansk near Petropavlivka on June 14 and 15.[29]

The spokesperson of a Ukrainian artillery brigade operating in the Kupyansk direction stated on June 14 that Ukrainian forces are preventing Russian forces from establishing temporary crossings and transporting heavy equipment and armored vehicles across the Oskil River.[30] The spokesperson noted that Russian forces are transferring some motorcycles across the Oskil River on inflatable pontoon boats.

Russian forces continued offensive operations in the Borova direction on June 15 but did not advance.

Russian forces continued assaults north of Borova in the direction of Novoplatonivka, northeast of Borova near Zahryzove and Nova Kruhlyakivka, and southeast of Borova near Novoyehorivka and toward Olhivka on June 14 and 15.[31]

Russian forces continued offensive operations in the Lyman direction on June 15 but did not make confirmed advances.

Unconfirmed claims: A Russian milblogger claimed that elements of the Russian 144th Motorized Rifle Division (20th Combined Arms Army [CAA], Moscow Military District [MMD]) recently advanced south of Novyi Myr (north of Lyman).[32]

Russian forces continued assaults north of Lyman near Ridkodub, Karpivka, and Zelena Dolyna and toward Shandryholove, Hlyshchenkove, and Novyi Myr; northeast of Lyman near Yampolivka and Torske; and east of Lyman in the Serebryanske forest area on June 14 and 15.[33]

Russian Subordinate Main Effort #3 – Donetsk Oblast (Russian objective: Capture the entirety of Donetsk Oblast, the claimed territory of Russia’s proxies in Donbas, and possibly advance into Dnipropetrovsk Oblast)

Russian forces recently advanced in the Siversk direction.

Assessed Russian advances: Geolocated footage published on June 13 indicates that Russian forces recently advanced north of Ivano-Darivka (southeast of Siversk).[34]

Russian forces continued offensive operations northeast of Siversk near Hryhorivka and east of Siversk near Verkhnokamyanske on June 14 and 15.[35]

A Ukrainian national guard brigade operating in the Siversk direction reported on June 15 that Russian forces are using unspecified munitions equipped with harmful chemical substances in this direction.[36]

Russian forces recently advanced in Chasiv Yar.

Assessed Russian advances: Geolocated footage published on June 12 indicates that Russian forces recently advanced in central Chasiv Yar.[37]

Russian forces continued offensive operations in Chasiv Yar itself; south of Chasiv Yar near Bila Hora and Stupochky and toward Predtechyne; and southeast of Chasiv Yar near Kurdyumivka on June 14 and 15.[38]

Russian forces recently advanced in the Toretsk direction.

Assessed Russian advances: Geolocated footage published on June 14 indicates that Russian forces recently advanced into northern Dyliivka (north of Toretsk).[39]

Russian forces attacked near Toretsk itself; northeast of Toretsk near Krymske; north of Toretsk near Dyliivka; northwest of Toretsk near Novoolenivka and Rusyn Yar and in the direction of Yablunivka and Pleshchiivka; west of Toretsk near Shcherbynivka; and southwest of Toretsk near Romanivka and Novospaske on June 14 and 15.[40]

An officer of a Ukrainian brigade operating in the Toretsk direction stated that Russian forces operating in the Toretsk direction continue to launch small group infantry assaults with drones and heavy and light vehicle support.[41] The officer also stated that Russian forces have sustained over 50,000 casualties in the battle for Toretsk in an unspecified timeframe, of which roughly 20,000 were killed in action (KIA).

Order of Battle: Drone elements of the Russian 68th Tank Regiment (150th Motorized Rifle Division, 8th Combined Arms Army [CAA], Southern Military District [SMD]) are reportedly striking Ukrainian positions near Romanivka.[42] Artillery and drone elements of the 33rd Motorized Rifle Regiment (20th Motorized Rifle Division, 8th CAA) are reportedly operating near Yablunivka.[43]

Russian forces continued offensive operations in the Pokrovsk direction on June 15 but did not make confirmed advances.

Russian forces attacked northeast of Pokrovsk near Malynivka, Myrolyubivka, Mykolaivka, and Yelyzavetivka; east of Pokrovsk near Promin; southeast of Pokrovsk near Lysivka; southwest of Pokrovsk near Udachne; and west of Pokrovsk in the direction of Myrne on June 14 and 15.[44]

Order of Battle: Elements of the Russian 35th Motorized Rifle Brigade (41st CAA, Central Military District [CMD]) are reportedly operating near Myrnohrad (northeast of Pokrovsk).[45] Elements of the Russian 20th Motorized Rifle Division (8th CAA) reportedly participated in the recent seizure of Malynivka.[46]

Russian forces continued offensive operations in the Novopavlivka direction on June 15 but did not advance.

Russian forces attacked toward Novopavlivka itself; northeast of Novopavlivka near Novoserhiivka and Muravka; east of Novopavlivka near Kotlyarivka; southeast of Novopavlivka near Oleksiivka, Novoukrainka, Rozlyv, Kostyantynopil, Odradne, Bahatyr, and Horikhove; south of Novopavlivka toward Zaporizhzhia and Dachne; and southwest of Novopavlivka toward Myrne on June 14 and 15.[47]

Ukrainian Khortytsia Group of Forces Spokesperson Major Viktor Trehubov stated on June 15 that Russian forces are not currently operating in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast but that Russian activity in the Novopavlivka direction recently intensified and that Ukrainian forces are repelling ongoing Russian attempts to breach the oblast border.[48] Trehubov also stated that Russian forces in this part of the frontline are decently trained but sustain high casualty rates.

Order of Battle: Drone elements of the Russian 30th Separate Spetsnaz Company (reportedly of the 36th CAA, Eastern Military District [EMD]) are reportedly striking Ukrainian positions in Komar (south of Novopavlivka).[49]

 Russian forces continued offensive operations in the Velyka Novosilka direction on June 15 but did not advance.

Russian forces attacked north of Velyka Novosilka near Novyi Komar; northwest of Velyka Novosilka near Vilne Pole, Burlatske, and toward Shevchenko; west of Velyka Novosilka near Novosilka and Novopil; and southwest of Velyka Novosilka near Zelene Pole and toward Novomykolaivka on June 14 and 15.[50]

Order of Battle: Drone elements of the Russian 14th Spetsnaz Brigade (Russian General Staff's Main Directorate [GRU]) are reportedly striking Ukrainian positions in the Velyka Novosilka direction.[51]

 Russian Supporting Effort – Southern Axis (Russian objective: Maintain frontline positions, secure rear areas against Ukrainian strikes, and advance within tube artillery range of Zaporizhia City)

 A Russian milblogger claimed on June 15 that Russian forces continued limited attacks east of Hulyaipole near Malynivka but did not advance.[52]

 Russian forces continued offensive operations in western Zaporizhia Oblast southwest of Orikhiv toward Novoandriivka on June 14 and 15 but did not advance.[53]

 Russian forces attacked near the Antonivsky railway and roadway bridges in the Kherson direction on June 14 and 15 but did not advance.[54]

 Russian Air, Missile, and Drone Campaign (Russian Objective: Target Ukrainian military and civilian infrastructure in the rear and on the frontline)

See topline text for reports of Russian strikes against Ukraine.

 Significant activity in Belarus (Russian efforts to increase its military presence in Belarus and further integrate Belarus into Russian-favorable frameworks)

 Nothing significant to report.

Note: ISW does not receive any classified material from any source, uses only publicly available information, and draws extensively on Russian, Ukrainian, and Western reporting and social media as well as commercially available satellite imagery and other geospatial data as the basis for these reports. References to all sources used are provided in the endnotes of each update.