Data Cutoff: 2:00 PM ET

The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) and The Critical Threats Project (CTP) at the American Enterprise Institute are publishing updates Monday through Friday to provide analysis on the war with Iran and the broader Middle East. Weekday updates cover events from the past 24-hour period, whereas weekend updates are abbreviated and cover the Houthi-Saudi conflict and major breaking developments related to the war with Iran. 

Key Takeaways:

• Iran is deploying various weapons systems, including limpet mines, to attempt to disrupt shipping in the Strait of Hormuz in order to pressure the United States into a diplomatic settlement that favors Iran.
• A recent Reuters investigation details Iranian techniques for evading sanctions and other controls on the regime to build or reconstitute its military forces from January 2025 through June 2026.
• Iran also imported materials to support missile production after the 12-Day War to support its priority of rebuilding its degraded ballistic missile production capabilities.
• Iran has used its military procurement network during the current war to acquire equipment that could sustain its missile and drone production and affect global energy markets.
• Hezbollah officials have issued ambiguous statements about whether the group would support Iran in a regional conflict, likely to balance its ties to Iran with the need to preserve domestic support.
• Recent Houthi attempts to advance southeastward from Taiz Governorate into Lahij Governorate may indicate that the Houthis are attempting to set conditions to besiege or capture Aden City.

Toplines

Iran is deploying various weapons systems, including limpet mines, to attempt to disrupt shipping in the Strait of Hormuz to disrupt global energy markets in order to pressure the United States into a diplomatic settlement that favors Iran.[i] Iranian forces used fast attack craft (FAC) to place and detonate two limpet mines on the hull of Panama-flagged oil tanker Louise 1 on October 29.[ii] The vessel was transiting outbound from the strait about 25 nautical miles northeast of Khasab, Oman.[iii] The damage from the mines caused a fire in the vessel’s engine room. This incident marks Iran’s first successful detonation of a limpet mine to target a vessel in this conflict, according to two maritime sources.[iv] Iran previously attempted to attach limpet mines to a vessel in September 2026 but failed to detonate the mines.[v] Iran previously deployed limpet mines against vessels in the strait in 2017 and 2019.[vi]

Iran intensified attacks on civilian shipping in the Strait of Hormuz in early October 2026 to disrupt shipping and drive up oil prices in response to recent US successes in facilitating the flow of oil of the strait. The rise of oil exports out of the strait undermines Iranian claims of control over the waterway and reduces the Iranian regime’s leverage to achieve Iranian war aims. Iran likely launched its recent waves of attacks on civilian ships in an attempt to change these conditions in Iran’s favor. CTP-ISW assessed on October 21 that Iran may be using more accurate systems, such as weapons systems with infrared terminal guidance, to attack some of these ships.[vii] Iran continues to claim that targeted vessels are hitting conventional sea mines in the strait, likely as part of an informational effort to intimidate shipping companies.^[viii] US Central Command (CENTCOM) Commander Admiral Brad Cooper stated on October 30 that CENTCOM has cleared all the mines that Iran laid in the strait at the start of the conflict, however.[ix]

Vessels are still transiting the strait with the help of US naval escorts despite Iran's efforts to disrupt shipping, however. Cooper announced on October 30 that his forces have escorted over 3,000 commercial vessels through the strait and have facilitated the transit of approximately 1.5 billion barrels of oil since this summer.[x] US officials also told the Wall Street Journal on October 29 that 95 percent of traffic in the strait has transited safely.[xi]

A recent Reuters investigation details Iranian techniques for evading sanctions and other controls on the regime’s ability to build or reconstitute its military forces since January 2025 up to June 2026.[xii] Reuters’ investigation examines three distinct periods: six months leading up to the June 2025 12-Day War, the eight months between the June 2025 war and the 2026 US-Israel-Iran War, and the first four months of the 2026 war.[xiii] Iran uses a network of Iranian Ministry of Defense and Armed Forces Logistics (MODAFL)-linked entities and several sanctions-evasion methods to procure military equipment and dual-use goods despite existing sanctions.[xiv] Reuters reported that more than 5,000 MODAFL-linked entities rely on frontmen, foreign shell companies, and illicit oil revenue to procure goods without using cross-border currency transfers.[xv] Such methods likely enable Iran to obscure military end users and hinder efforts to disrupt or dismantle Iran’s procurement network. Iran also transports goods by sea, land, and air, which allows it to change suppliers, payment methods, and transportation routes when sanctions or military operations disrupt individual channels.[xvi]

Iran likely attempted to reconstitute capabilities degraded in recent Israeli strikes and bolster existing equipment stockpiles leading up to the June 2025 12-Day War.[xvii] Iran likely sought to rebuild its intermediate-range, solid-fuel ballistic missile stocks after Israel damaged key production sites in October 2024.[xviii] Reuters reported that MODAFL-linked entity MOD 346428 imported 886 tons of Chinese chemicals under a customs category that includes sodium chlorates and other perchlorates between January and April 2025.[xix] Iran can convert sodium perchlorate into ammonium perchlorate, which comprises approximately 70 percent of solid-fuel missile propellant.[xx] People’s Republic of China (PRC)-based entities have historically supported Iranian efforts to replenish its missile stockpile and restore key aspects of its defense capability. Western officials estimated in Spring 2025 that the recent Chinese shipments of sodium perchlorate, if converted to ammonium perchlorate, could fuel up to 260 mid-range Iranian ballistic missiles.[xxi] Sodium perchlorate ignited in dockside shipping containers at Bandar Abbas port on April 26, 2026—three days after the final PRC-origin shipment, according to Reuters.[xxii]

Iran also imported military vehicles during this period that may have supported Iranian operations in subsequent conflicts with the United States and Israel. MOD 346428 also imported four Toyota Tundra pickup trucks in January 2025, which Iran could use for military transportation, logistics, drone transport, or internal security.[xxiii] Reuters also located imported Iveco trucks at a Tehran Province customs lot in February 2025.[xxiv] Iran can use this truck type for transport as well as a mobile missile launcher, which increases force mobility and complicates enemy targeting. The purposes for which Iran imported these vehicles, and how it has since deployed them, remain unclear, but Iran has used mobile vehicle-based launchers to conduct attacks against Israel and targets in the Gulf during the 12-Day War and the 2026 war. The New York Times reported in May 2026, citing US intelligence assessments from early May, that Iran still fielded approximately 70 percent of its mobile launchers nationwide.[xxv]

Iran also imported materials to support missile production after the 12-Day War to support its priority of rebuilding its degraded ballistic missile production capabilities.[xxvi] Israel badly damaged Iran’s missile production program during the 12-Day War by rendering numerous factories inoperable and destroying missile production facilities at Parchin and Shahroud.[xxvii] Iran made the rapid restoration of its ballistic missile production capacity a strategic priority through Fall and Winter 2025.[xxviii] CTP-ISW assessed that this prioritization likely reflected Iran’s assumption that Israel would resume the Israel-Iran War in the short term.[xxix] Reuters documented Iranian imports of equipment and components that could also support multiple stages of missile production, including missile bodies, motor casings, propellant, and explosive payloads.[xxx] Iran received 93 tons of Chinese titanium on February 9, 2026 that can support missile airframes and rocket-motor casings.[xxxi] Iran also received 268 tons of nitrocellulose and 276 tons of Chinese chemicals under a customs category that includes perchlorates in February 2026.[xxxii] These chemicals can be used to produce rocket propellants and explosives.[xxxiii] Iran’s rapid reconstitution of its ballistic missile production capabilities during this period has contributed to Iran’s retaliatory ballistic missile attacks across the region.

Iran has utilized its military procurement network during the current war to acquire supplies and military equipment, some of which has likely enabled recent attacks on civilian shipping. US and Israeli strikes likely significantly disrupted Iran’s ability to import military equipment in March 2026. Reuters reported that Iranian military imports fell 47 percent from the February level to $54 million USD in March 2026.[xxxiv] Iranian military imports increased to $77 million USD in May, which suggests that Iran prioritized the recovery of its imports in subsequent months as the United States and Iran engaged in negotiations.[xxxv]

Iran also used the brief suspension of the US naval blockade to import supplies. The United States imposed the naval blockade on April 13, suspended it on June 18, and resumed it on July 14.[xxxvi] The US naval blockade only restricts maritime shipments, and Reuters documented how Iran used land and air routes to import supplies while the blockade was in effect.[xxxvii] Iran received $27 million USD in United Arab Emirates (UAE)-origin goods during the war, nearly all of which arrived by sea. One of these shipments was an electronics shipment that reportedly took place on June 27, when the US naval blockade was suspended.[xxxviii] UAE restrictions on cargo flows and financial transactions with Iran since August 2026 may constrain Iran’s ability to continue using the UAE as a military procurement and sanctions-evasion hub.[xxxix]

Russia has enabled Iranian attacks that have increased global oil prices by supplying Iran with weapons and key military components.^[xl] Iran reportedly received $1.9 million USD worth of Russian detonators in June 2026 that are components in missile and drone warheads.[xli] The shipment is indicative of the nature of the Iran-Russia relationship, in which Iran is a beneficiary of Russia’s expanded defense industrial base and drone production program after originally providing Russia with Shahed drones in 2022.[xlii] The timing of the reported shipment is consistent with NBC reporting that Russia has transferred drone components, ammunition, and TNT explosives to Iran via the Caspian Sea up to July 2026. Iran and Russia have historically used the Caspian Sea to trade military and non-military goods.[xliii]

The United States has, as part of Operation Economic Fury, limited Iran’s ability to import or export goods by land or air through sanctions and pressure on regional states to restrict Iranian land and air trade. The United States subsequently sanctioned three Iranian railway companies on October 1. The UAE, Georgia, Oman, Azerbaijan, and Iraq restricted or suspended Iranian airline operations in late September.[xliv] These measures may constrain Iran’s future use of alternative land and air routes.

Hezbollah officials have issued ambiguous statements about whether the group would support Iran in a regional conflict, likely to balance its ties to Iran with the need to preserve domestic support. Hezbollah officials, including prominent parliamentarian Hassan Fadlallah, stated on October 26 and 27 that Hezbollah may or may not join a future conflict involving Iran and that the group will not "give guarantees to anyone" on Hezbollah's military course of action.[xlv] Fadlallah emphasized that Hezbollah's decisions are expressly "made by its leadership" and not subject to foreign commands.[xlvi] Saudi-owned international media previously reported on October 21 and 24 that Iranian officials had instructed Hezbollah not to join a potential future conflict with Iran and that the group agreed to the Iranian request.[xlvii] Fadlallah's remarks strongly suggest that Hezbollah has sought to reframe the media narrative surrounding its courses of action and portray Hezbollah as capable of making independent strategic decisions.[xlviii] Hezbollah's strategic decision-making process is not independent, however, and the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) exhibits significant influence over the organization as a result of the IRGC’s extensive reconstitution, military reorganization, and leadership replacement efforts after the 2024 Israel-Hezbollah conflict.[xlix]

Hezbollah officials' intentional ambiguity concerning whether the group will join a resumed regional conflict reflects the dilemma that the group faces in publicly balancing its commitments to Iran and to Lebanon's Shia population. Hezbollah faces significant organizational pressure to act in support of Iran, partly due to the extent of the IRGC's organizational penetration and partly because Hezbollah seeks to establish deterrence against Israel.[l] Hezbollah has started numerous wars with Israel in southern Lebanon in recent years in support for Iran, most recently in March 2026, even though these wars have resulted in serious damage to its military organization and killed much of its leadership.[li] Hezbollah likely believes that its ability to credibly threaten renewed military action is fundamental to deterring Israel from attacking Iran or Hezbollah itself.

Hezbollah likely faces pressure to avoid another war in southern Lebanon that would damage its reputation among its traditional Lebanese Shia support base.^[lii] Hezbollah deems itself the "people's resistance" but frequently places Iranian regime interests before those of Lebanese civilians, particularly the group's Shia supporters in southern Lebanon and Beirut's southern suburbs.[liii] A September 2025 Lebanese public opinion poll found that a majority of Lebanese Shia reportedly support Hezbollah’s disarmament despite the group’s nationalist rhetoric likely because its wars with Israel, have devastated southern Lebanon and other Hezbollah strongholds.[liv] This erosion of popular support for Hezbollah within Lebanon is a serious vulnerability for the group, which relies on civilians’ political support in order to resist the Lebanese government’s efforts to disarm Hezbollah.[lv] Hezbollah must balance this concern with its raison d'être to use military force against Israel and Israeli forces in Lebanon.[lvi]

Current indicators suggest that Hezbollah may not participate in a renewed regional conflict by attacking Israel, at least in the near term, despite the group's ambiguous statements. CTP-ISW has not observed clear threats or military movements that would normally indicate that Hezbollah is preparing for imminent attacks on Israel, although the group is attempting to reconstitute its military capabilities.[lvii] IRGC officials who are involved in Hezbollah's strategic decision-making may prefer to exclude Hezbollah from a near-term regional conflict in order to prioritize the group's military reconstitution amid serious domestic and foreign threats to Hezbollah's survival.[lviii]

Recent Houthi attempts to advance southeastward from Taiz Governorate into Lahij Governorate may indicate that the Houthis are attempting to set conditions to besiege or capture Aden City. Yemeni government-aligned forces reportedly repelled a Houthi attempt to advance southeastward from southern Taiz Governorate into al Maqatirah District, Lahij Governorate, on October 30, which likely sought to capture terrain that overlooks Tur al Balah District and leads to Aden City.[lix] Yemeni government-aligned sources and Saudi media reported on October 30 that the Houthis attempted a multi-pronged advance southeastward from al Turbah toward al Sawalihah along sections of the Taiz-Aden ground line of communication (GLOC).[lx] Yemeni government-aligned forces reportedly repelled the assault.[lxi] Yemeni government sources reported on October 30 that Saudi airstrikes targeted Houthi forces advancing along the GLOC, which may have hindered the Houthis' ability to advance into al Sawalihah.[lxii] The Houthis reportedly deployed reinforcements to nearby Shamayatayn District, west of al Sawalihah, on October 30.[lxiii] The Houthis are likely deploying reinforcements in preparation for another advance attempt into al Maqatirah District.[lxiv] The Houthis likely sought to advance southward into al Maqatirah District to capture terrain that overlooks neighboring Tur al Balah District. Tur al Balah District borders Aden City itself.

US and Partner Military Operations

Nothing significant to report.

Iranian Strike Campaign

• Assessed Iranian War Aims:
  • Secure international recognition of Iranian control over the Strait of Hormuz
  • Degrade the US ability and willingness to continue the war
  • Restore deterrence vis-à -vis the United States and its regional partners
  • Divide the United States and Israel from the Arab states

See topline section.

US-Iran Negotiations

Nothing significant to report.
Iranian Domestic Affairs

See topline section.
Lebanon

The Lebanese government has filed criminal charges against 13 Hezbollah members and affiliates who are involved in the group's illegal military and smuggling activities.[lxv] The Lebanese Military Court’s civilian commissioner, Judge Claude Ghanem, charged the individuals, including two senior Hezbollah security officials, with illegal possession of explosives, belonging to an outlawed armed group, and conspiracy to undermine state authority.[lxvi] The criminal charges are part of the Lebanese government's ongoing investigation into Hezbollah's explosives smuggling activities after Lebanese authorities seized a Hezbollah truck carrying nearly 800 kilograms of explosives on the Beirut-Damascus highway on October 5.[lxvii] The government's criminal case against Hezbollah weapons smuggling, and its willingness to file criminal charges against Hezbollah security officials, represents a serious government effort to hold Hezbollah accountable to the rule of law and disarm the group.[lxviii]

The government still faces significant challenges in prosecuting and convicting Hezbollah officials, however, due to the group's extensive influence within government institutions and its efforts to avoid disarmament. Hezbollah leveraged its alliance with Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri on October 22 to delay a cabinet vote on referring the explosives case to the Judicial Council, which issues binding, unappealable rulings.[lxix] Lebanese authorities must continue to investigate the case in the interim under the Military Court, whose president, Brigadier General Wassim Fayad, is under Hezbollah's influence and could obstruct Ghanem's efforts to prosecute group officials.[lxx] Hezbollah is similarly threatening the government with unrest and attempting to discredit the government in order to compel Lebanese authorities to return the group's explosives, drop criminal charges, and abandon disarmament.[lxxi]

Iraq

Nothing significant to report.
Arabian Peninsula

Yemeni government-aligned forces reportedly recaptured areas west of Jabal Kahbub, Lahij Governorate, on October 29. An anti-Houthi journalist reported that the Yemeni government-aligned Southern Giants Brigades and Homeland Shield Forces (HSF), supported by Saudi air power, recaptured territory to the west of Jabal Kahbub, Lahij Governorate, on October 29.[lxxii] Commercially available satellite imagery from October 15 to 29 indicates that Houthi forces may have captured and constructed defensive positions on the east side of Jabal Kahbub before withdrawing under pressure on October 29.[lxxiii] Houthi forces previously attempted to recapture Jabal Kahbub on September 14, in order to outflank Yemeni government-aligned forces positioned on the Red Sea coastal plain.[lxxiv] The Southern Giants and HSF’s reported recapture of Jabal Kahbub on October 29 comes amid recent Yemeni government efforts to recapture the southern tip of the Red Sea coastal plain from Houthi forces, including areas along the Bab al Mandeb Strait.[lxxv]

The Houthis continued their attack campaign to impose economic and political costs on Saudi Arabia to compel the Saudi government to capitulate to Houthi demands. The Houthis claimed that they attacked three important Saudi oil facilities on October 29.[lxxvi] CTP-ISW cannot verify the Houthis’ claims at the time of this writing, however. The Houthis claimed to strike the Ras Tanura oil refinery, which is Saudi Arabia’s largest oil refinery, with a ballistic missile on October 29.[lxxvii] The Houthis also claimed to strike the Abqaiq oil processing plant in eastern Saudi Arabia on October 29 for the first time in the 2026 conflict.[lxxviii] Unknown actors previously struck the Abqaiq facility, which is the world's largest crude oil processing plant, in July 2026 with drones and missiles.[lxxix] The Houthis announced at the time that they targeted Saudi oil infrastructure in eastern Saudi Arabia but did not explicitly claim the attack on Abqaiq.[lxxx] The Houthis also claimed on October 29 that they struck the Petro Rabigh Refinery, which is in Mecca Province.[lxxxi] The Saudi Joint Forces Command reported on October 29 that Saudi air defenses intercepted a drone over Mecca Province.[lxxxii] The Houthis denied on October 30 that they targeted Mecca City, however.[lxxxiii] The Houthis previously claimed to strike several key Saudi critical infrastructure facilities, including the Ras Tanura oil refinery, on October 27.[lxxxiv] The Houthis have repeatedly targeted Saudi critical infrastructure as part of the Houthis’ ongoing strike campaign to compel Saudi Arabia to halt military operations against the Houthis and accept the Houthis’ demands, which include lifting Saudi controls on Houthi-controlled ports and airports and granting the Houthis control over Yemen’s oil and gas resources.[lxxxv]

The Houthis separately claimed they struck King Khalid International Airport in Riyadh, King Fahd International Airport in Dammam, and an unspecified Saudi military headquarters in Najran Province on October 29.[lxxxvi] Saudi forces intercepted at least four missiles and two drones over Saudi Arabia on October 29 and 30.[lxxxvii] Saudi Civil Defense also reported on October 29 that debris from two missile interceptions over Riyadh City injured one individual and damaged property.[lxxxviii]  The US Embassy in Riyadh ordered non-emergency US government employees and their families to leave Saudi Arabia on October 30 due to Houthi attacks on civilian airports and other critical infrastructure.[lxxxix]