Iran Update: October 3, 2026

Data Cutoff: 2:00 PM ET

The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) and The Critical Threats Project (CTP) at the American Enterprise Institute are publishing updates Monday through Friday to provide analysis on the war with Iran and the broader Middle East. Weekday updates cover events from the past 24-hour period, whereas weekend updates are abbreviated and cover the Houthi-Saudi conflict and major breaking developments related to the war with Iran. 

Key Takeaways:

• Saudi or Yemeni government-aligned forces conducted airstrikes on Sanaa City on October 3, likely to degrade Houthi capabilities central to the group's offensive campaigns. Yemeni government-aligned forces also struck Houthi frontline positions, reinforcements, and logistics throughout southwestern Yemen. Yemeni Armed Forces Spokesperson Majed al Nuzaili claimed that strikes on Houthi reinforcements and support convoys have caused a state of "deprivation" that is weakening Houthi forces' ability to fight in Taiz Governorate.
• The Houthis attempted to advance on fronts in western and eastern Taiz Governorate on October 2 and 3, likely as part of the Houthi effort to encircle Taiz City and sever the Yemeni government's last ground line of communication between Taiz City and Aden. Yemeni media reported that the Houthis’ attempted advances failed, and CTP-ISW has also not observed evidence of significant Houthi advances on these fronts at the time of this writing.

Toplines

Saudi or Yemeni government-aligned forces conducted airstrikes on Sanaa City on October 3, likely to degrade Houthi capabilities central to the group's offensive campaigns.[i] Local sources told a Yemeni news outlet on October 3 that Saudi or Yemeni government-aligned forces conducted at least 13 airstrikes targeting several areas in Sanaa City. Yemeni government-aligned forces identified the targets as "legitimate vital military targets."[ii] Yemeni Armed Forces Spokesperson Majed al Nuzaili stated that the strikes demonstrate Yemeni government-aligned forces' ability to conduct "strategic attacks" on valuable military targets in the Houthi-controlled capital, which is far from the front lines in southern and eastern Yemen.[iii] Yemeni government-aligned forces, Yemeni journalists, and international media have reported attacks on Houthi weapons experts, missile and drone commanders, and other “high-value targets” in Sanaa City in recent days.[iv] Saudi and Yemeni government-aligned forces have struck targets in Sanaa City and other military sites deep in Houthi-controlled northwestern Yemen in order to degrade Houthi command-and-control (C2) and military capabilities that are necessary for sustaining offensive campaigns in Yemen and against Saudi Arabia.[v]

Yemeni government-aligned forces also struck Houthi frontline positions, reinforcements, and logistics throughout southwestern Yemen on October 2 to disrupt attempted Houthi advances and degrade the group's ability to sustain offensive combat efforts.[vi] Nuzaili announced on October 2 that Yemeni government-aligned forces conducted at least 71 airstrikes on Houthi forces and logistics in Taiz Governorate.[vii] Nuzaili claimed that strikes on Houthi reinforcements and support convoys have caused a state of "deprivation" that is weakening Houthi forces' ability to fight in Taiz Governorate.[viii] The Houthis attempted to advance on fronts in western and eastern Taiz Governorate on October 2 and 3, likely as part of the Houthi effort to encircle Taiz City and sever the Yemeni government's last ground line of communication (GLOC) between Taiz City and Aden.[ix] Yemeni media reported on October 3 that the Houthis’ attempted advances failed, and CTP-ISW has also not observed evidence of significant Houthi advances on these fronts at the time of this writing.[x]

US and Partner Military Operations

Nothing significant to report.

Iranian Strike Campaign

• Assessed Iranian War Aims:
  • Secure international recognition of Iranian control over the Strait of Hormuz
  • Degrade the US ability and willingness to continue the war
  • Restore deterrence vis-à -vis the United States and its regional partners
  • Divide the United States and Israel from the Arab states

The Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps Navy likely attacked two tankers in the Strait of Hormuz on October 2 as part of Iran’s ongoing effort to disrupt international shipping and coerce countries to recognize Iranian control of the strait. United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) reported on October 2 that unspecified projectiles struck a tanker transiting outbound through the strait and an oil tanker approximately four nautical miles east of Oman.[xi] UKMTO has reported six attacks on vessels in or near the strait since September 30.[xii] The Iranian attacks on vessels come as US efforts to restore freedom of navigation continue to challenge Iran's ability to enforce control over the strait.[xiii]

US-Iran Negotiations

Nothing significant to report.

Iranian Domestic Affairs

Nothing significant to report.

Lebanon

Nothing significant to report.

Iraq

Nothing significant to report.

Arabian Peninsula

The Houthis likely conducted an attack on a major oil refinery in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, on October 3.^[xiv] Houthi media posted footage and satellite imagery showing large smoke plumes and fires rising from oil storage tanks at the Saudi Aramco Riyadh Refinery on October 3 but did not explicitly attribute the damage to a Houthi attack.[xv] Reuters similarly reported fires and large smoke plumes near a Saudi Aramco facility in Riyadh on October 3. An independent geospatial analyst separately reported that the Houthis attacked oil refineries in Riyadh and Yanbu over the past 24 hours.[xvi] The Houthis likely attacked the refinery in Riyadh as part of the group's strike campaign against Saudi oil infrastructure in order to maximize Saudi political and economic costs and compel Saudi Arabia to surrender to Houthi demands.[xvii] These demands include ending Saudi military activity and support for anti-Houthi forces in Yemen, lifting Saudi controls on Houthi-controlled ports and airports, paying war reparations and civil servant salaries, and granting the Houthis control over Yemen’s oil and gas resources.[xviii]