Iran Update, October 24, 2026

Data Cutoff: 2:00 PM ET

The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) and The Critical Threats Project (CTP) at the American Enterprise Institute are publishing updates Monday through Friday to provide analysis on the war with Iran and the broader Middle East. Weekday updates cover events from the past 24-hour period, whereas weekend updates are abbreviated and cover the Houthi-Saudi conflict and major breaking developments related to the war with Iran. 

Key Takeaways:

• Director of National Intelligence Jay Clayton warned on October 23 that US intelligence assessments indicate that Iran is in the "advanced stages" of planning attacks against US targets in the region.
• Houthi supporters and military officers have reportedly expressed dissatisfaction with the group's military progress near Taiz City and are urging Houthi leadership to conduct a large-scale ground assault to capture the city.
• The Houthis claimed that they attacked three Saudi airports, pumping stations on the East-West Pipeline, and oil facilities at major Saudi Red Sea ports.

Toplines

Director of National Intelligence Jay Clayton warned on October 23 that US intelligence assessments indicate that Iran is in the "advanced stages" of planning attacks against US targets in the region.[i] Clayton noted in a memo addressed to Secretary of State Marco Rubio that Iran has “substantially increased” its efforts to target US personnel.[ii] US officials told Western media that US intelligence agencies assess that the Iranian threat to US citizens in the Middle East is at the highest level since the US-Israel-Iran War began in February 2026.[iii] Iran has repeatedly targeted US military and diplomatic personnel based in the region since the beginning of the war. Iran also reportedly planned a drone attack against Royal Air Force (RAF) Fairford in the United Kingdom, prompting the United States to evacuate 12 B-1 Lancers from the base in early October.[iv] US officials told the New York Times on October 23 that the United States has started to reduce its diplomatic personnel in the region due to the threat from Iran.[v]

Clayton’s warning about Iranian plans to attack US targets comes amid recent Iranian threats to “expand” Iran’s target bank in the event that the United States or Israel resume strikes on Iran.[vi] Iranian officials warned Arab officials and mediators that Iran would “more aggressively” target US forces and naval vessels in the event of renewed conflict.[vii] These warnings are likely intended to deter any renewed US or Israeli military operations while Iran is simultaneously preparing for possible conflict. Iran reportedly conducted over 30 tests of medium-range solid-fuel Emad and Kheibar Shekan ballistic missiles on October 11, for example.[viii]

US and Partner Military Operations

See topline section.

Iranian Strike Campaign

• Assessed Iranian War Aims:
  • Secure international recognition of Iranian control over the Strait of Hormuz
  • Degrade the US ability and willingness to continue the war
  • Restore deterrence vis-à -vis the United States and its regional partners
  • Divide the United States and Israel from the Arab states

US-Iran Negotiations

Nothing significant to report.
Iranian Domestic Affairs

Nothing significant to report.
Lebanon

Nothing significant to report.

Iraq

Nothing significant to report.

Arabian Peninsula

Houthi supporters and military officers have reportedly expressed dissatisfaction with the group's military progress near Taiz City and urged Houthi leadership to conduct a large-scale ground assault to capture the city. The Houthis have fully encircled Taiz City and surrounding areas to the south since October 12.[ix] A Marib-based Yemeni journalist and a DC-based Yemen analyst posted social media messages from Houthi-aligned "activists" and military officers who argued that the Houthis' ongoing siege of Taiz City is providing Yemeni government-aligned forces with excess time to consider options to free the city and exhaust Houthi forces in combat.[x] The messages from the military officers and Houthi supporters claimed that a protracted siege of Taiz City would be a "serious mistake" and bring about "catastrophic consequences" for the Houthis.[xi] These messages and reports suggest that some Houthi-aligned figures are not confident in the group's ability to compel government-aligned forces and civilians to surrender Taiz City, even though government-aligned forces defending the city are engaged in heavy combat and face significant supply shortages.[xii]

Yemeni government-aligned forces' defense of their positions on Taiz City's western outskirts in recent weeks has also prevented the Houthis from quickly advancing and overwhelming government-aligned forces in the city.[xiii] Anti-Houthi Yemeni media reported on October 23 that Yemeni government-aligned forces recaptured the Hangar Checkpoint, which lies on a main roadway leading into Taiz City from the southwest, but CTP-ISW cannot verify this claim.[xiv] Saudi or Yemeni government-aligned forces also conducted at least four airstrikes targeting a major Houthi artillery battery at the abandoned Sofitel Hotel, which is located on a hilltop that overlooks Taiz City from the east.[xv] The Houthis have used the hotel’s advantageous terrain to fire heavy artillery barrages on government-aligned forces' positions in Taiz City since 2015.[xvi]

Yemeni government-aligned forces are continuing to engage Houthi fighters further south in Taiz and Lahij governorates in attempts to break the Houthis' encirclement of Taiz City and central Taiz Governorate.[xvii] Anti-Houthi media posted a video of Yemeni government-aligned forces at a security force headquarters in al Misrakh district, central Taiz Governorate, on October 23 and claimed that government-aligned forces have recaptured the entire district.[xviii] CTP-ISW cannot confirm this claim, however. An independent Yemeni journalist reported on October 23 that Yemeni government-aligned forces engaged Houthi fighters near the southern edge of the Houthis' encirclement in Taiz Governorate and along the Taiz-Aden ground line of communication (GLOC) in al Maqatirah district, Lahij Governorate, on October 23.[xix] A breakout from the Houthis' encirclement of central Taiz Governorate will provide little operational gain to Yemeni government-aligned forces unless these forces recapture, hold, and secure significant segments of the Taiz-Aden GLOC.[xx]

The Houthis launched at least three ballistic missiles targeting the Yemeni Coast Guard’s administrative buildings in government-controlled Aden on October 24. The Yemeni government's Interior Ministry confirmed that the Houthis struck a Coast Guard building in their headquarters, located near Aden International Airport, with two ballistic missiles.[xxi] Houthi military spokesperson Yayha Saree claimed that the Houthis struck the Yemeni government’s al Nasr Military Camp site, where the Yemeni Interior Ministry is now located.[xxii] The Yemeni government's Interior Ministry also confirmed that a Houthi ballistic missile struck another Coast Guard building in Tawahi District.[xxiii] Saree claimed that the Houthis also targeted the Naval Base in Aden, which is located in Tawahi District.[xxiv] The Yemeni government‘s Coast Guard is responsible for monitoring and intercepting Houthi maritime smuggling efforts.[xxv] The timing of Houthi strikes targeting government maritime assets is notable given that Saudi Arabia has increasingly struck Houthi smuggling vessels in the Red Sea since October 16.[xxvi]

The Houthis have continued their attack campaign to impose economic and political costs on Saudi Arabia in order to compel Riyadh to capitulate to Houthi demands. The Saudi Joint Forces Command reported that Saudi air defenses intercepted a ballistic missile over Riyadh and a drone over eastern Saudi Arabia on October 23.[xxvii] Saudi air defenses also intercepted ballistic missiles over Yanbu, Taif, Mecca, and Medina on October 24.[xxviii] Houthi spokesperson Yahya Saree claimed that the Houthis fired ballistic missiles and drones on October 24 targeting King Khalid International Airport in Riyadh, King Fahd International Airport in Dammam, Najran International Airport, and King Khalid Air Base in Khamis Mushait, as well as a Saudi Aramco facility in Yanbu, a Petro Rabigh Refinery in Rabigh, and an unspecified number of pumping stations on the Saudi East-West pipeline.[xxix] The Houthis have repeatedly targeted Saudi critical infrastructure as part of the Houthis’ ongoing strike campaign to compel Saudi Arabia to halt military operations against the Houthis and accept the Houthis’ demands, which include lifting Saudi controls on Houthi-controlled ports and airports and granting the Houthis control over Yemen’s oil and gas resources.[xxx]