Iran Update, November 5, 2025

The Critical Thre ats Project (CTP) at the American Enterprise Institute and the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) publish the Iran Update, which provides insights into Iranian and Iranian-sponsored activities that undermine regional stability and threaten US forces and interests. CTP-ISW publishes the Iran Update daily.

Click here to see CTP and ISW’s interactive map of assessed control of terrain in Syria, and here to see CTP and ISW’s interactive map of Israeli ground operations. The Syria map is updated daily alongside the static Syria maps in this report. CTP-ISW ended daily maps of Israeli ground operations in February 2025.

Click here to see ISW-CTP's interactive map showing the total strikes in Iran during the Israel-Iran War, as well as an interactive timelapse showing the strikes day-by-day.

Israel is reportedly preparing plans for a possible multi-day operation targeting Hezbollah leadership and infrastructure across Lebanon amid Hezbollah’s efforts to reconstitute its forces. Several Israeli media outlets reported on November 4 and 5 that the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) is preparing plans for a “several-day” operation in which the IDF would target Hezbollah infrastructure south of Beirut, in the Bekaa Valley, and in other areas north of Lebanon’s Litani River.[i] The Israeli media reports did not specify whether the possible operation would include ground incursions into Lebanese territory. Israel has conducted both airstrikes and limited ground raids into Lebanese territory since the November 2024 Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire agreement.[ii]

Discussions in Israeli media about a new IDF operation in Lebanon follow several recent reports from Israeli and Western sources that Hezbollah is reconstituting its forces and weapons capabilities in Lebanon through domestic production and smuggling.[iii] Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu convened a special session on November 4 to discuss Hezbollah’s recent and successful efforts to smuggle short-range rockets into Lebanon from Syria.[iv] Israeli intelligence officers recently warned the Knesset that Hezbollah is domestically producing more ammunition than the IDF is destroying.[v] The IDF has assessed that Hezbollah is “several months away” from crossing Israel’s “red line” on Hezbollah’s offensive capabilities, according to the Israeli outlet Maariv on November 5.[vi] Israeli intelligence and the IDF Northern Command also recently identified that Hezbollah has begun to rebuild military infrastructure in several regions in Lebanon, including north of the Litani River.[vii] 

Israeli and US officials have recently warned the Lebanese government that Israel’s possible operation in Lebanon would be a direct consequence of the Lebanese Armed Forces’ (LAF) failure to address continued Hezbollah reconstitution, probably in part to pressure the Lebanese state to take more aggressive steps to disarm Hezbollah. Unspecified officials told an Israeli media outlet close to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on October 28 that Israel would conduct “focused and targeted operations” targeting Hezbollah if the Lebanese government does not disarm Hezbollah.[viii] The Lebanese government approved a plan in September 2025, which stipulated that the LAF disarm Hezbollah south of the Litani River by the end of 2025.[ix] The LAF has only taken moderate steps to seize weapons caches in areas where Hezbollah does not appear to be currently operating and has not attempted to seize arms from Hezbollah fighters. CTP-ISW recently observed that Hezbollah may have deterred the LAF from disarming the group by making threats to incite internal conflict.[x] An Israeli journalist assessed on November 5 that Israel is “escalating its threats” in order to pressure the Lebanese government to disarm Hezbollah.[xi] An unspecified Israeli official also told Saudi media on November 5 that Israel does not seek renewed conflict in Lebanon but “will not hesitate [to act] if necessary.”[xii]

US Special Envoy Thomas Barrack reportedly told the Lebanese government that the IDF “will be able” to attack Lebanon if the LAF does not take more concrete steps to disarm Hezbollah by the end of November 2025, according to Israeli media.[xiii] Barrack has acted as one of the main US intermediaries in Israel-Lebanon negotiations and has routinely criticized the LAF’s slow progress in implementing its plan to disarm Hezbollah.[xiv] Barrack also reportedly stated that the United States “will understand” if Israel launches an attack on Lebanon, according to an Israeli journalist.[xv]

Iran may seek to exchange technical information with Belarus related to air defense systems and electronic warfare (EW) equipment to enhance its ability to produce these systems. Iranian Artesh Air Force Commander Brigadier General Hamid Vahedi met with Belarusian Air Force and Air Defense Forces Commander Major General Andrei Lukyanovich during a four-day visit to Belarus between November 2 and 5.[xvi] The two commanders discussed bilateral relations and examined ways to expand air force and air defense cooperation. The Iranian delegation plans to visit the Belarusian Military Academy and Belarusian air force units and view the latest Belarusian electronic warfare equipment.[xvii] Iran has expressed interest in acquiring advanced air defense systems and aircraft, such as the S-400 air defense system and Su-35 fighter jet, from Russia. Belarus’ KB Radar Company manufactures niche radar systems for airspace control, air defense, and target tracking, and EW systems, which would be compatible with the systems that Iran seeks to acquire.[xviii] Belarus primarily produces these systems for Russia’s operational needs in Ukraine, however, and it is unclear whether Russia or Belarus would be willing to spare any of these systems for Iran. ISW has long assessed that Russia has de facto annexed Belarus and has subsumed significant elements of the Belarusian economy and defense industrial base.[xix] Belarus is unlikely to offer any low-density high demand air defense or electronic warfare equipment to Iran without Russia’s approval.   

Key Takeaways

• Iran-Belarus Defense Cooperation: Iran may seek to exchange technical information with Belarus related to air defense systems and electronic warfare (EW) equipment to enhance its ability to produce these systems. Belarus produces components compatible with advanced systems that Iran has sought to acquire from Russia.
• Hezbollah Reconstitution: Israel is reportedly preparing plans for a possible multi-day operation targeting Hezbollah leadership and infrastructure across Lebanon amid Hezbollah’s efforts to reconstitute its forces. Discussions in Israeli media about a new IDF operation in Lebanon follow several recent reports from Israeli and Western sources that Hezbollah is reconstituting its forces and weapons capabilities in Lebanon through domestic production and smuggling.
• Hezbollah Reconstitution: Israeli and US officials have recently warned the Lebanese government that Israel’s possible operation in Lebanon would be a direct consequence of the Lebanese Armed Forces’ (LAF) failure to address continued Hezbollah reconstitution, probably in part to pressure the Lebanese state to take more aggressive steps to disarm Hezbollah.

Iran

Iran may be trying to market its naval military hardware to international buyers at a maritime exhibition in Pakistan. An Iranian Defense Ministry delegation led by Captain Daryoush Eskandari participated in Pakistan’s four-day International Maritime Exhibition and Conference (PIMEC) between November 3 and 6.[xx] The Iranian delegation displayed mock models of anti-ship cruise missiles, mid-class submarines, hovercrafts, fast attack crafts, and other vessels.[xxi] The Iranian Defense Ministry is responsible for the Iranian defense industrial base and arms sales and purchases. Delegations from 44 countries, including China, participated in the exhibition.[xxii] Iran has previously sought to increase arms exports to generate revenue and mitigate the impacts of Western sanctions that have deteriorated Iran’s economy.[xxiii]

Iraq

Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammad Shia al Sudani falsely claimed in a November 3 interview with Reuters that the US military presence in Iraq incentivizes Iranian-backed Iraqi militias to keep their arms.[xxiv] Sudani made a similar claim in a July 2025 interview with the Associated Press.[xxv] These claims ignore the fact that Iranian-backed Iraqi militias would seek to remain armed even if the United States withdrew from Iraq due to ideological factors.[xxvi] A US State Department representative rejected Sudani’s claim on November 5 and described the disarmament of Iranian-backed Iraqi militias as an “Iraqi sovereign duty.”[xxvii] Sudani’s claim comes as the United States is reducing its military presence in federal Iraq and relocating most of its forces to the Iraqi Kurdistan Region as part of a reorientation away from the US-led multinational counter-ISIS mission Operation Inherent Resolve to a bilateral security relationship.[xxviii] The Iraqi federal government has argued that the international coalition’s presence in Iraq is no longer justified because ISIS no longer poses a threat to Iraq.[xxix] Sudani’s claim also comes as the United States is pressuring the Iraqi federal government to disarm Iranian-backed Iraqi militias as part of the US maximum pressure campaign to curb Iranian influence in the Middle East.[xxx]

Syria

Nothing significant to report.

Arabian Peninsula

Nothing significant to report.  

Palestinian Territories and Lebanon

See topline section.