Data Cutoff: 2:00 PM ET

The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) and The Critical Threats Project (CTP) at the American Enterprise Institute are publishing updates Monday through Friday to provide analysis on the war with Iran and the broader Middle East. Weekday updates cover events from the past 24-hour period, whereas weekend updates are abbreviated and cover the Houthi-Saudi conflict and major breaking developments related to the war with Iran. 

Key Takeaways:

• Yemeni government-aligned forces withdrew from most of their Red Sea coastal positions, likely to avoid a Houthi encirclement near Jabal Kharaz and to preserve their ability to defend Aden City.
• The Houthis seized the Red Sea coastal positions that Yemeni government-aligned forces withdrew from on November 15, which sets conditions for the Houthis to advance toward Aden City.
• Iran conducted a drone attack targeting a radar at al Riffa Air Base in Bahrain on November 14, likely to degrade US air defense capabilities in response to recent US strikes on Iranian coastal infrastructure.

Toplines

Yemeni government-aligned forces withdrew from most of their Red Sea coastal positions, likely to avoid a Houthi encirclement near Jabal Kharaz and to preserve their ability to defend Aden City. The Yemeni government-aligned Southern Armed Forces announced on November 15 that its forces redeployed from the Dhubab Airport and Bab al Mandeb area to reinforce the defense of Aden City.[i] Multiple Yemeni government-aligned sources reported on November 15 that other Yemeni government-aligned factions, including the Southern Giants Brigades, also withdrew from the Bab al Mandeb area and established defensive positions in al Suqqayah and Khour, Lahij Governorate.[ii] The Houthis conducted a ballistic missile attack on Khour al Umairah on November 15, indicating the presence of Yemeni government-aligned forces in the area.[iii] The attack reportedly killed, according to UK-based Saudi media.[iv]

Yemeni government-aligned forces likely withdrew from their Red Sea coastal positions in response to the Houthis’ November 12 combined arms offensive operation in southeastern Lahij Governorate, which threatened to isolate Yemeni government-aligned forces on the Red Sea coast by severing the Mokha-Aden ground line of communication (GLOC) near Jabal Kharaz.[v] Yemeni government leadership likely ordered the withdrawal in order to prevent the Houthis from isolating the Yemeni government’s most capable and most mobile units, the Southern Giants Brigades and Homeland Shield Forces, on the Red Sea coast. CTP-ISW previously noted that these units would likely be the most capable of defending Aden City.[vi]

The Houthis seized the Red Sea coastal positions that Yemeni government-aligned forces withdrew from on November 15, which sets conditions for the Houthis to advance toward Aden City. The Houthis seized positions at Dhubab Airport, Jabal Kahbub, and al Shatt, according to an independent Yemeni journalist on November 15.[vii] The Houthis will likely use their seizure of additional positions along the Mokha-Aden GLOC, along with their control of some territory along the Taiz-Aden GLOC, to try to advance toward Aden. Simultaneous Houthi advances from these GLOCs would force Yemeni government-aligned forces to divide their defensive efforts between the two approaches to Aden City. Yemeni government-aligned forces in southwestern Yemen are already strained as some of their forces are still defending the Houthi-encircled city of Taiz. CTP-ISW will provide further analysis on the implications of Yemeni government-aligned forces’ withdrawal from the Red Sea coast in tomorrow’ s update.

US and Partner Military Operations

Nothing significant to report.

Iranian Strike Campaign

• Assessed Iranian War Aims:
  • Secure international recognition of Iranian control over the Strait of Hormuz
  • Degrade the US ability and willingness to continue the war
  • Restore deterrence vis-à -vis the United States and its regional partners
  • Divide the United States and Israel from the Arab states

Iran conducted a drone attack targeting a radar at al Riffa Air Base in Bahrain on November 14, likely to degrade US air defense capabilities in response to recent US strikes on Iranian coastal infrastructure. The Bahrain Defense Force confirmed on November 15 that its forces intercepted several Iranian “aerial attacks.”[viii] The Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) Aerospace Force claimed on November 14 that it launched six drones targeting a US radar at al Riffa Air Base in Bahrain as part of the “second phase” of Iran's response to recent US attacks on Iran.[ix] The IRGC recently conducted a drone strike targeting a US early warning radar in Bahrain on November 13 in retaliation for a US airstrike on a telecommunications tower in Hormozgan Province. US forces intercepted the November 13 drone attack.[x] Iran is likely targeting US radars to degrade the United States’ ability to detect incoming projectiles, including its ability to protect shipping and fixed targets in Bahrain. Iran continues to attack shipping in the Strait of Hormuz as well as claim that vessels are hitting mines in the strait’s southern route to undermine US operations to facilitate the free flow of oil through the strait.[xi] CTP-ISW has not observed any indicators that Iran has successfully re-mined the southern route.

US-Iran Negotiations

Nothing significant to report.

Iranian Domestic Affairs

Nothing significant to report.

Lebanon

Nothing significant to report.

Iraq

Nothing significant to report.

Arabian Peninsula

The Houthi movement claimed that it struck Saudi critical infrastructure on November 15 as part of its ongoing campaign to compel Saudi Arabia to end military operations in Yemen and accept Houthi demands. The Houthi movement claimed that it launched two ballistic missiles at King Khalid International Airport and a "financial center" in Riyadh City, and two drones at two East-West Pipeline pumping stations on November 15.[xii] CTP-ISW cannot verify the Houthis’ claims at the time of this writing. Saudi Joint Forces Command Spokesperson Major General Turki al Maliki announced that Saudi forces intercepted three drones in Eastern Province and two ballistic missiles over Riyadh on November 14.[xiii] Maliki separately announced on November 15 that Saudi forces intercepted two drones near Mecca and two drones near Medina.[xiv] The Houthis have consistently denied targeting the Islamic holy cities of Mecca and Medina since the start of their strike campaign against Saudi Arabia.[xv] The Houthis seek to impose economic and political costs on Saudi Arabia to compel the kingdom to meet Houthi demands, such as recognizing Houthi sovereignty in Yemen, lifting Saudi controls on Houthi-controlled ports and airports, and granting the Houthis control over Yemen’s oil and gas resources.[xvi]