Iran Update, July 19, 2025

Information Cutoff: 2:00 PM ET

The  Critical Threats Project (CTP) at the American Enterprise Institute and the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) publish the Iran Update, which provides insights into Iranian and Iranian-sponsored activities that undermine regional stability and threaten US forces and interests. CTP-ISW publishes the Iran Update daily.

Click here to see CTP and ISW’s interactive map of assessed control of terrain in Syria, and here to see CTP and ISW’s interactive map of Israeli ground operations. The Syria map is updated daily alongside the static Syria maps in this report. CTP-ISW ended daily maps of Israeli ground operations in February 2025.

Click here to see ISW-CTP's interactive map showing the total strikes in Iran since June 12, as well as an interactive timelapse showing the strikes day-by-day.

CTP-ISW will publish an abbreviated Iran Update on July 19 and 20 and will resume full coverage on July 21.

Key Takeaways:

• Israel-Syria ceasefire: Israel and Syria agreed to a ceasefire in southern Syria on July 18 that reportedly returns control of Suwayda Province to the Syrian transitional government. Government forces have deployed to towns in Suwayda Province as part of the first phase of the ceasefire agreement.
• Iranian nuclear negotiations: Senior E3 (the United Kingdom, Germany, and France) and Iranian diplomats are reportedly expected to meet in Europe next week to discuss a possible nuclear deal. Iran has not softened its position on its right to enrich uranium on Iranian soil, which makes it unlikely that Iran will accept a nuclear deal that includes a zero uranium enrichment demand.

Israel and Syria agreed to a ceasefire in southern Syria on July 18 that reportedly returns control of Suwayda Province to the Syrian transitional government.[i] An unidentified Interior Ministry official reported that the ceasefire will be implemented in three phases.[ii] Transitional government forces will deploy to Suwayda in the first phase to oversee disengagement between Druze and Bedouin fighters.[iii]The official stated that an emergency committee comprised of Syrian transitional government officials will simultaneously oversee the delivery of humanitarian aid and provision of basic services to civilians in Suwayda Province as well as monitor the repair of infrastructure as part of the second phase.[iv] The Interior Ministry official stated that the third phase will begin after “calm” is restored in Suwayda Province.[v] The third phase will activate state-run institutions, gradually redeploy government forces to Suwayda Province, and integrate Suwaydawi institutions into the Syrian state. These provisions are similar to the ones that were included in the July 16 ceasefire agreement, which was rejected by prominent Druze Sheikh Hikmat al Hijri.[vi]

Syrian President Ahmed al Shara sought to secure the support of the Druze and Sunni Bedouin for the ceasefire during a speech on July 19 by making references to these communities’ history and identity.[vii] Shara criticized Hijri’s movement for having “separatist ambitions,” seeking support from abroad, and acting counter to Syrian values and interests. Shara called on Syrians not to judge all Druze based on the actions of a few. He lauded the “noble values” of Bedouin tribes and their history of standing by the Syrian state. Shara stated that the motives for these tribes to take unilateral action to defend themselves are understandable, but cautioned that these actions cannot be an alternative to state intervention to restore security. Shara reiterated the transitional government’s stated commitment to protecting minorities and holding any and all perpetrators of violence accountable.

Hijri, other Druze factions, and Sunni Bedouin tribes have agreed to the Israel-Syria ceasefire in southern Syria. Hijri, who has rejected three ceasefire agreements in the past week, called for his supporters to adhere to the ceasefire agreement.[viii] Hijri stated that Syrian government forces would deploy to Suwayda Province’s borders to establish checkpoints.[ix] The checkpoints are meant to prevent any parties from entering border villages for 48 hours to allow security forces to deploy to the province and allow Bedouin tribesmen who had traveled to Suwayda to leave the province safely.[x] Under the ceasefire agreement, Busra al Sham and Busra al Harir are designated as safe crossings.[xi] Hijri asserted that any party that violates the agreement bears full responsibility for its collapse.[xii] It is unclear at this time whether Hijri or his forces will adhere to the ceasefire.

Several Druze and Bedouin groups have welcomed the ceasefire agreement. An unspecified spokesperson for Syrian Bedouin tribes told Syrian media on July 19 that the Bedouin tribes support the Syrian government and have stopped sending tribal fighters to Suwayda.[xiii] The Southern Tribes Gathering also expressed its commitment to the ceasefire agreement.[xiv] Prominent Druze Sheikh Hikmat al Hijri, who has led much of the fighting against the transitional government, called for an end to the clashes and fighting on July 18.[xv]

Government forces have deployed to towns in Suwayda Province as part of the first phase of the ceasefire agreement. Forces deployed to al Mazraa, Walgha, and the outskirts of Suwayda City on July 19.[xvi] Syrian media reported that fighting continued in Suwayda on July 19 as internal security forces deploy to the province.[xvii] Geolocated footage posted on July 19 reportedly shows clashes between unspecified armed factions along the Suwayda-Walgha highway in northwestern Suwayda City.[xviii] Southern Syria-based media posted footage of clashes between Sunni Bedouin fighters and Druze fighters in an unspecified area of Suwayda City.[xix] A Turkish analyst posted footage reportedly showing fighting between Sunni Bedouin fighters and Druze fighters loyal to Druze leader Hikmat al Hijri at the al Omran junction in Suwayda City.[xx] Sunni Bedouin and Druze fighters continue to contest control of neighborhoods in northern and western Suwayda City at the time of this writing.[xxi]

CTP-ISW will provide further analysis about the ceasefire in Syria in its updates in the coming days.

Axios reported on July 19 that senior E3 (the United Kingdom, Germany, and France) and Iranian diplomats are expected to meet in Europe next week to discuss a possible nuclear deal, citing unspecified sources.[xxii] Iran has not softened its position on its right to enrich uranium on Iranian soil, which makes it unlikely that Iran will accept a nuclear deal that includes a zero uranium enrichment demand.  Iranian Foreign Affairs Minister Abbas Araghchi told Chinese media on July 19 that Iran is “not convinced yet” to resume nuclear negotiations.[xxiii] Araghchi added that the United States must show a “real intention” to achieve a “win-win solution.”[xxiv] Iranian officials, including a senior adviser to the Supreme Leader, have similarly signaled caution about talks and reiterated that Iran will not accept a zero uranium enrichment demand.[xxv]  The E3 has warned that it may trigger the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) snapback mechanism to reimpose UN Security Council sanctions on Iran if Iran does not deliver unspecified “concrete results” by the end of August.[xxvi] The E3 would have to initiate the process to impose snapback sanctions by September 3 to complete the process before the mechanism expires in October 2025.[xxvii]