16 hours ago

Iran Special Report: Strikes on Iran, June 19, 2025, Morning Edition

Carolyn Moorman, Kelly Campa and Annika Ganzeveld

Information cutoff: 5:00AM ET

The Critical Threats Project (CTP) at the American Enterprise Institute and the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) are publishing multiple updates daily to provide analysis on the war with Iran. The morning update will focus on the exchange of fire between Iran and Israel. The evening update will be more comprehensive, covering events over the past 24-hour period and refining items discussed in the morning update.

Key Takeaways

The IDF struck several nuclear facilities, including the Arak Heavy Water Reactor in Markazi Province. Iran could use this reactor to support the production of plutonium-based nuclear weapons. The IDF also struck a storage facility linked to the Iranian nuclear program in Natanz, Esfahan Province.
The IDF has struck at least six Iranian Ghadir radars since June 12, according to commercially available satellite imagery. Ghadir radars reportedly have the ability to detect aircraft from 1,100 kilometers away.
An Iranian ballistic missile struck the Soroka Medical Center in Beersheba. Iranian ballistic missile attacks on Israel since CTP-ISW's last data cutoff have injured over 200 individuals. The Israeli defense minister warned that Israel will intensify its attacks on Iran following the strike on the Soroka Medical Center.

CTP-ISW has observed fewer reports of Israeli airstrikes from social media accounts based in Iran, which likely reflects widespread internet disruptions in Iran rather than an actual decrease in Israeli airstrikes. An internet monitoring group reported that Iran is currently facing a near-total internet shutdown.[i]

The IDF (Israel Defense Forces) has struck several Iranian nuclear facilities since CTP-ISW's last data cutoff at 5:00 PM ET on June 18. The IDF struck the Arak Heavy Water Reactor in Markazi Province on June 19.[ii] Iran began construction of the heavy water reactor in 1997, but the reactor never became operational.[iii] Heavy water reactors produce plutonium as a byproduct, which can be used to create nuclear weapons.[iv] Iran agreed to redesign the facility to alleviate international concerns about possible plutonium production as part of the 2015 nuclear deal.[v] The IDF said that it struck the facility due to its capacity to support the production of plutonium-based nuclear weapons.[vi] Iran has pursued a uranium-based, not plutonium-based, nuclear program. The IDF separately struck a storage facility in Natanz, Esfahan Province. The IDF said that the storage facility contained equipment that Iran could use to develop nuclear weapons.[vii] Previous Israeli airstrikes on the Natanz Enrichment Complex directly impacted the complex’s underground enrichment facilities.[viii]

The IDF issued an evacuation order on June 18 for the area around the Arak Heavy Water Reactor.[ix] Iran acknowledged that two projectiles hit the facility on June 19.[x] The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) confirmed that the IDF struck the heavy water reactor and that there was no nuclear material at the facility.[xi] The IAEA said that it did not have information about whether the IDF had also struck the heavy water production plant, which is also located in the Arak facility.[xii] The heavy water production plant provides heavy water for the reactor.[xiii]

Commercially available satellite imagery shows that the IDF has struck at least six Ghadir radars across Iran since June 12. The IDF struck Ghadir radars in Bijar, Kurdistan Province; Marber, Ilam Province; Garmsar, Semnan Province; Behabad, Yazd Province; Dasht-e Arjan, Fars Province; and Mal Gonzeh, Bushehr Province between June 12 and 19. Israel likely targeted the Ghadir radars in order to degrade Iranian air defense capabilities and maintain air superiority over Iran. The Ghadir radar system is an important component of Iranian integrated air defense systems because of the Ghadir’s ability to detect aircraft from 1,100 kilometers away.[xiv] Iran attempted to bolster its Ghadir system in the months leading up to the Israel-Iran War.[xv] Iran likely built at least two new Ghadir radars in southern Iran near the Persian Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz and one in West Azerbaijan Province in recent months.[xvi]

Iran has conducted two ballistic missile attacks targeting Israel since CTP-ISW's 5:00 PM ET data cutoff on June 18. Iran launched four ballistic missiles targeting central Israel in its first barrage.[xvii] Israeli air defense systems intercepted all of the missiles.[xviii] Iran launched an estimated 30 ballistic missiles targeting central and southern Israel in its second barrage, causing four impacts: one in Beersheba, two in Tel Aviv, and one in Azor.[xix] An Iranian ballistic missile struck the Soroka Medical Center in Beersheba.[xx] The attack damaged the building but did not cause any injuries because the facility had been evacuated days prior.[xxi] Iranian Foreign Affairs Minister Abbas Araghchi claimed that Iran targeted an Israeli intelligence headquarters next to the hospital.[xxii] Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz announced that he and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu “instructed the IDF to increase the intensity of attacks against strategic targets in Iran and against government targets in Tehran” following the attack.[xxiii] Another Iranian ballistic missile struck Ramat Gan, near Tel Aviv, damaging shops and apartment buildings.[xxiv] A third ballistic missile struck Holon, near Tel Aviv, damaging several apartment buildings.[xxv] The Israeli Health Ministry reported that the three strikes critically injured four people and moderately injured 16 people.[xxvi] 220 individuals sustained minor injuries from the attacks.[xxvii] The IDF announced that at least one of the Iranian ballistic missiles contained a cluster munition which contained 2.5-kilogram explosive submunitions.[xxviii] One of the submunitions struck a home in Azor, but did not cause any injuries.[xxix] These barrages mark the first Iranian strikes that have inflicted injuries since June 15.[xxx]

The IDF has intercepted two drones targeting Israel since CTP-ISW's 5:00 PM ET data cutoff on June 18. The IDF intercepted an Iranian drone over northern Israel.[xxxi] The IDF also intercepted an Iranian drone over the Jordan Valley area.[xxxii]