Iran Special Report: Strikes on Iran, June 19, 2025, Evening Edition

The Critical Threats Project (CTP) at the American Enterprise Institute and the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) are publishing multiple updates daily to provide analysis on the war with Iran. The morning update will focus on the exchange of fire between Iran and Israel. The evening update will be more comprehensive, covering events over the past 24-hour period and refining items discussed in the morning update.

Key Takeaways

• Iranian officials have expressed interest in negotiating an end to the Israel-Iran conflict but have not moderated their negotiating positions from before the conflict. Iranian proposals that do not fulfill US demands, such as the US demand for zero Iranian uranium enrichment, will likely preclude Iran from reaching a new nuclear deal with the United States and a ceasefire in the Israel-Iran War.
• The IDF has continued to strike Iranian nuclear, military, and energy infrastructure. Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz said on June 19 that "preventing [Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s] existence” is one of the Israeli air campaign’s objectives.
• Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei appointed Brigadier General Mohammad Karami as the IRGC Ground Forces commander on June 19. Khamenei’s appointment of Karami may reflect regime concerns about potential domestic unrest, given that Karami has previously been involved in suppressing internal dissent.
• Iran has continued its ballistic missile campaign despite the IDF’s claims that it has destroyed between one-half and two-thirds of Iran’s missile launchers. Iran has launched more advanced missiles targeting Israel since June 18.
• Iranian-backed Iraqi militias continue to threaten retaliation if the United States joins the Israel-Iran War. The Kataib Hezbollah spokesperson warned on June 19, for example, that US participation in the war would trigger attacks on US bases in the region, the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab al Mandab, and the closure of ports in the Red Sea.

Iranian officials have expressed interest in negotiating an end to the Israel-Iran conflict but have not moderated their negotiating positions from before the conflict. An unspecified US official cited by Axios on June 19 stated that US Special Envoy Steve Witkoff has been in contact with Iranian Foreign Affairs Minister Abbas Araghchi and has received some indications that Iran is interested in resuming negotiations.[i] Two Iranian government planes landed in Oman, which has been mediating between Iran and the United States, on June 18.[ii] It is unclear who was on these planes or whether the flights to Oman were related to negotiations. Araghchi announced on June 19 that he will meet with representatives from the United Kingdom, France, Germany, and the European Union in Geneva on June 20 to discuss “the nuclear issue and the latest developments in the region.”[iii] French Minister for Europe and Foreign Affairs Jean Noel Barrot stated on June 19 that France is prepared to support negotiations with the United States to “scale back” Iran’s nuclear enrichment and ballistic missile programs.[iv] Negotiations to “scale back” Iran’s enrichment and ballistic missile programs would be consistent with Iran’s objective to maintain both programs. These objectives contradict stated US objectives to achieve zero uranium enrichment and degrade the Iranian ballistic missile program.

Iranian proposals that do not fulfill US objectives will likely preclude Iran from reaching a new nuclear deal with the United States and a ceasefire in the Israel-Iran War. Arab “intermediaries” speaking to Western media on June 16 said that Iranian officials are willing to “de-escalate hostilities” and return to negotiations but are not prepared to make concessions in the nuclear talks.[v] This suggests that Iran is not currently willing to concede to the US demand for zero uranium enrichment. So long as Iran insists on retaining a uranium enrichment program on Iranian soil, it is unlikely that Iran and the United States will conclude a nuclear agreement. US President Donald Trump called for Iran’s “unconditional surrender” in a social media post on June 17.[vi]  Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei categorically rejected Trump’s call for Iran’s “unconditional surrender” during a televised speech on June 18.[vii]

The United States is reportedly preparing to support a potential strike on the Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant if Iran rejects US conditions to resume nuclear negotiations. Unspecified US officials cited by Western media on June 19 reported that Trump has approved attack plans for Iran but is withholding a decision to attack to see if Iran would accept a deal.[viii] Unspecified US officials cited by Axios reported that Trump seeks to ensure that a strike on Iran is absolutely necessary, would not entangle the United States in a protracted war, and would succeed in destroying the Iranian nuclear program.[ix] The United States has begun moving assets to the Middle East in recent days to provide “more options” for defending US assets and interests.[x] US Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt stated that Trump will decide whether or not to strike Iran “within the next two weeks.”[xi]   

It remains unclear whether Israel would attack Fordow without US assistance. An unspecified US official told an Axios reporter on June 18 that Israeli officials told the Trump administration that Israel might “[attack Fordow] with humans” because Israeli munitions may not be able to destroy Fordow."[xii]

Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz said on June 19 that "preventing [Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s] existence” is one of the Israeli air campaign’s objectives.[xiii] Katz made this remark during a visit to the site of an Iranian missile impact in central Israel.[xiv] Israel launched its air campaign targeting the Iranian nuclear program and regime leadership on June 12 to “degrade, destroy, and remove [the] threat” of the Iranian nuclear program.[xv] Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said on June 12 that the strikes are part of a campaign to “roll back the Iranian threat to Israel’s survival.”[xvi]  Katz’s comment follows similar statements from Netanyahu since June 16, including Netanyahu’s statement that Khamenei’s death would “end the conflict.”[xvii] Katz stated on June 19 that he and Netanyahu instructed the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) to increase the “intensity” of IDF attacks on government targets in Iran to eliminate threats to Israel and “undermine the ayatollah’s regime.”[xviii]

Battle Damage Assessments:

Commercially available satellite imagery shows that the IDF targeted the Sanjarian site in Tehran Province on June 18. Former UN weapons inspector David Albright stated on June 19 that Israeli strikes “completely destroyed” four buildings at the Sanjarian site and may have caused “collateral damage” near the site.[xix] The site served as a key facility in Iran’s Amad Project, which was Iran’s nuclear weapons program before 2003. Iran used the Sanjarian site to conduct high explosive tests in specialized chambers.[xx] The Institute for Science and International Security previously reported that Iran increased activity at two nuclear sites in late 2024 that were previously used for high explosive testing, including the Sanjarian site.[xxi]  Iran also “reactivated and accelerated” activities at the Golab Dareh nuclear site in Tehran Province in late 2024.[xxii]

The IDF struck the Arak Heavy Water Reactor in Markazi Province on June 19, as CTP-ISW previously reported. Commercially available satellite imagery from June 19 shows damage to the reactor. Israeli strikes caused the dome of the reactor to collapse. Satellite imagery also shows damage to nearby distillation towers and other infrastructure.[xxiii] Heavy water reactors produce plutonium as a byproduct, which can be used to create nuclear weapons.[xxiv] Iran began construction of the heavy water reactor in 1997, but the reactor never became operational.[xxv] Iran agreed to redesign the facility to alleviate international concerns about possible plutonium production as part of the 2015 nuclear deal.[xxvi]

Israel struck a Ghadir over-the-horizon radar near Shiraz, Fars Province, between June 13 and June 19, as CTP-ISW previously reported.[xxvii] Ghadir radars can detect aircraft from about 1,100 kilometers away, which would have enabled this radar system to detect aircraft as far west as central and parts of western Iraq.[xxviii] Israel has struck at least five other Ghadir radars across Iran in recent days, likely to degrade Iranian air defense capabilities and maintain air superiority over Iran.[xxix]

The IDF has continued to target Iranian missile capabilities and leadership since CTP-ISW's last data cutoff at 5:00 AM ET on June 19. The IDF conducted 20 strikes targeting surface-to-surface missile infrastructure, including missile launchers and vehicles containing surface-to-surface missiles.[xxx] Geolocated imagery published on June 19 shows that the IDF struck an Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) Aerospace Force facility located two kilometers from the IRGC Aerospace Force Headquarters in Tehran between June 12 and 15.[xxxi] The IRGC Aerospace Force oversees Iran’s drone and missile arsenals.[xxxii] The IDF also reportedly struck an IRGC base in Karaj, Alborz Province, on June 19.[xxxiii]

The IDF continued to target Iranian energy infrastructure on June 19. The IDF reportedly struck a power plant in Karaj, Alborz Province.[xxxiv] CTP-ISW assessed on June 15 that Israeli strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure will likely worsen Iran’s ongoing energy crisis by causing more widespread and frequent electricity shortages and outages.[xxxv] Frustration over energy shortages could trigger internal unrest.

Israel’s Decapitation Campaign and Iranian Appointments:

Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei appointed Brigadier General Mohammad Karami as the IRGC Ground Forces commander on June 19.[xxxvi] Karami replaced Major General Mohammad Pak Pour, who held the position since 2009.[xxxvii] Khamenei appointed Pak Pour as the IRGC commander on June 13 after the IDF killed former IRGC Commander Major General Hossein Salami on June 12.[xxxviii] Karami has decades of experience in internal security and counterinsurgency operations. Karami previously commanded the IRGC Ground Forces Quds Operational Base in southeastern Iran.[xxxix] Karami also served as the governor of Sistan and Baluchistan Province.[xl] The United States, the European Union, the United Kingdom, and Canada have sanctioned Karami for his role in violently suppressing protests, including the November 2019 and Mahsa Amini protests in September 2022.[xli] Khamenei may have appointed Karami in part due to concerns about potential unrest in Iran, given Karami's background in suppressing internal dissent.[xlii]

IRGC Commander Major General Mohammad Pak Pour appointed Brigadier General Majid Khademi as IRGC Intelligence Organization Chief on June 19.[xliii] Israeli airstrikes killed former IRGC Intelligence Organization Chief Brigadier General Mohammad Kazemi and his deputy, Hassan Mohaghegh, on June 15.[xliv]

Iranian Attacks on Israel:

CTP-ISW has recorded 43 reported or confirmed Iranian ballistic missile or Israeli interceptor impacts on Israel since the start of the Israeli air campaign on June 12.

Iran has continued to conduct ballistic missile attacks targeting Israel despite the fact that the IDF has destroyed between one-half and two-thirds of Iran’s missile launchers.[xlv] Iran has conducted one ballistic missile attack targeting Israel since CTP-ISW's 5:00 AM ET data cutoff on June 19.[xlvi] Iran launched between six and ten ballistic missiles targeting northern Israel in its third barrage since June 18.[xlvii] Israeli air defense systems intercepted all of the missiles.[xlviii] An Israeli official told Reuters that the IDF estimates that it has struck two-thirds of Iran’s ballistic missile launchers.[xlix] The size of Iranian ballistic missile barrages increased on June 19, with a barrage that included approximately 30 missiles. This barrage marked the largest Iranian salvo since June 16.[l]  Iranian barrages on June 17 and 18 were more frequent but contained fewer missiles in comparison, often with no more than five missiles per barrage.[li]

Iran has launched more technologically advanced missiles targeting Israel since June 18. Iran launched a Sejjil ballistic missile targeting Israel for the first time on June 18, according to Iranian media.[lii] The Sejjil is a two-stage, solid-fueled medium-range ballistic missile with a range of around 2,000 kilometers.[liii] Israeli air defense systems successfully intercepted the Sejjil.[liv] Iran launched a Khorramshar-4 ballistic missile that contained a cluster munition warhead on June 19, according to an Israeli journalist.[lv] The Khorramshar-4 is a liquid-fueled medium-range ballistic missile with a range of around 2,000 kilometers.[lvi] The cluster munition warhead released 20 2.5-kilogram explosive submunitions at an altitude of seven kilometers, according to an Israeli journalist.[lvii] One of the submunitions struck a home in Azor but did not cause any injuries. The remaining 19 submunitions failed to detonate and were safely destroyed by the IDF.[lviii]

The IDF has intercepted one drone targeting Israel since CTP-ISW's 5:00 AM ET data cutoff on June 19.[lix] The IDF intercepted the drone over the Jordan Valley area.[lx] The Israeli Air Force and Navy have intercepted over 95 percent of Iranian drones targeting Israel, according to an Israeli military correspondent.[lxi] IDF Spokesperson Brigadier General Effie Defrin stated that over 480 of the roughly 1,000 drones that have been launched at Israel since June 12 have been shot down. Only around 200 of the 1,000 drones entered Israeli airspace.[lxii]

Axis of Resistance Response to the Israel-Iran War:

Iranian-backed Iraqi militias continue to threaten retaliation if the United States joins the Israel-Iran War. Kataib Hezbollah Spokesperson Abu Ali al Askari threatened on June 19 that US participation in the war would trigger attacks on US bases in the region, the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab al Mandab, and the closure of ports in the Red Sea.[lxiii] Askari claimed that Iran can launch missiles with “various ranges and technologies” at Israel at the same rate for a year and launch missiles at the “entire American presence in West Asia.”[lxiv] The IDF estimates that its strikes have destroyed between one-half and two-thirds of Iran’s ballistic missile launchers.[lxv] Unspecified US officials told the New York Times on June 17 that US intelligence shows that Iran has prepared missiles and equipment to strike US bases in the region if the United States joins Israel’s air campaign.[lxvi] US officials added that the Houthis would “almost certainly” resume attacks against international shipping in the Red Sea and Iran could lay mines in the Strait of Hormuz if the United States joins the conflict.

Askari and Harakat Hezbollah al Nujaba leader Akram al Kaabi condemned US President Donald Trump’s recent “threat” to target Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei.[lxvii] Trump called Khamenei an “easy target” in a social media post on June 17 but denied immediate plans to target him due to concerns about ramifications for US forces in the region.[lxviii] Kaabi threatened on June 19 to target US citizens, soldiers, diplomats, and “direct or indirect interests” if Israel or the United States targets Khamenei.[lxix] Saraya al Dam separately threatened on June 19 to conduct unspecified actions if the Israel-Iran conflict persists.[lxx] Iranian-backed Iraqi militias may target the United States even if it does not directly participate in or approve Israeli attacks on Iran because Iran and its proxies believe that the United States approves Israeli actions in the region.

Houthi Supreme Leader Abdulmalik al Houthi stated on June 19 that the Houthis will continue to attack Israel.[lxxi] The IDF has intercepted multiple drones and ballistic missiles launched from Houthi-controlled areas of Yemen since the Israel-Iran War began on June 12.[lxxii] Abdulmalik called on Arab countries, including Iraq, to prevent Israel from using their airspace to strike Iran. The head of Iranian-backed Iraqi militia Harakat Hezbollah al Nujaba’s political bureau, Ali al Asadi, called on the Iraqi government on June 19 to declare Iraqi airspace a no-fly zone for the United States and Israel.[lxxiii] Asadi also called on the Iraqi army and the Iranian-backed Popular Mobilization Forces, which includes several Iranian-backed Iraqi militias, to target any Israeli aircraft or missiles that enter Iraqi airspace. Iranian-backed Iraqi militias in the PMF have attempted to procure air defense equipment in recent years.[lxxiv]

Geolocated imagery shows that Israel struck a site in Vandar, Ghazvin Province, on June 18 that Iran used to produce anti-tank guided missiles (ATGM) for Lebanese Hezbollah and other Axis of Resistance groups.[lxxv] The IDF announced that it struck the site on June 18 but did not publish the site’s location.[lxxvi] CTP-ISW assessed on June 18 that the Israeli air campaign will likely have a secondary effect of weakening Iranian-backed Axis of Resistance groups, such as Hezbollah, that rely on Iran.[lxxvii] Iran, and specifically the IRGC, have tried to help Hezbollah reconstitute since the November 2024 Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire. Hezbollah Secretary General Naim Qassem released a statement on June 19 confirming Hezbollah’s support for Iran in the war.[lxxviii]