Congo War Security Review, October 15, 2025

Data Cutoff: October 15, 2025, at 1 P.M. EST

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Key Takeaway: The DRC and M23 signed a Qatari-brokered agreement to establish a ceasefire verification mechanism. The Congolese army called on the Forces démocratiques de libération du Rwanda (FDLR) to disarm and surrender as part of the US-brokered peace agreement. M23 launched counterinsurgency operations against pro-Congolese government Wazalendo fighters and suspected FDLR militants in Rutshuru district in North Kivu. The Congolese army conducted several drone strikes on an M23-controlled industrial gold mine in Mwenga district in South Kivu.

Kinetic Activity in Rutshuru & Eastern Masisi Districts

M23 launched counterinsurgency operations against pro-Congolese government Wazalendo fighters and suspected Forces démocratiques de libération du Rwanda (FDLR) militants in Rutshuru district in North Kivu. M23 clashed with Wazalendo fighters and suspected FDLR militants in at least three villages near Bambo village in the Tongo group in the Bwito chiefdom in Rutshuru from October 10 to October 12.[i] M23 has also reportedly conducted attacks and clashed with Wazalendo-FDLR fighters in at least a dozen villages near the Bukumbo group capital in Bwito since October 13.[ii] The Congolese media outlet Radio Okapi reported on October 13 that the renewed fighting near Bukombo displaced hundreds of people.[iii]

Northern Axis: Lubero-Butembo-Beni-Bunia

Nothing significant to report.

Southern Axis: Bukavu-Uvira-Baraka-Kalemie

The Congolese army (FARDC) conducted several drone strikes on an M23-controlled industrial gold mine in Mwenga district in South Kivu. FARDC drones reportedly struck the Twangiza gold mine in the Luhwinja chiefdom in Mwenga in at least three bombing runs on October 15.[iv] The FARDC targeted the mine’s water storage and power generation facilities in the strikes, which reportedly disrupted operations.[v] M23 officials denounced the bombings as a violation of the Qatari-brokered ceasefire on social media on October 15.[vi] The FARDC bombed Twangiza in a previous strike but did not damage the site significantly last week.[vii] M23 seized the Chinese-owned mining site in early May 2025 and had reportedly restarted production in mid-July.[viii]

M23 clashed with Wazalendo fighters in several villages near the RN2 in southern Kalehe district in South Kivu. Congolese media reported that M23 has clashed with Wazalendo fighters in five villages near the RN2 in Kalehe, including Kasheke and Katasomwa—a gold mining village located on the northern tip of the Kahuzi-Biega National Park—since October 12.[ix] M23 spokesperson Lawrence Kanyuka claimed that pro-Congolese government forces attacked M23 positions in Katasomwa and Kasheke in violation of the ceasefire in a statement on October 15.[x]

M23 clashed with Wazalendo fighters near the Kavumu airport on the RN2 in Kabare district in South Kivu. M23 reportedly clashed with Wazalendo fighters in Tshivanga village on the edge of Kahuzi-Biega on October 12.[xi] Tshivanga is about five miles west of the Kavumu airport on the RN2.

Northwest Axis: Masisi-Walikale-Lubutu-Kisangani

Wazalendo fighters recaptured a village north of the RP1030 in Walikale district in North Kivu. The Congolese media outlet Actualite.cd reported that Wazalendo fighters attacked and dislodged M23 from Chanjikiro village in the Kisimba group in Walikale on October 14.[xii] CTP is unable to verify the location of Chanjikiro. The Kisimba group is located near Mpeti village on the RP1030, roughly 12 miles east of Pinga, a military and logistics hub on the RP1030.

M23 repelled a Wazalendo attack on the RP1030 in northern Masisi district in North Kivu. M23 reportedly clashed with Wazalendos who then withdrew from Malemo village on the RP1030 on October 14.[xiii] Malemo is about 16 miles east from Pinga.

Wazalendo fighters repelled M23 attacks in north-central Masisi district. Actualite.cd reported that Wazalendo fighters repelled M23 attacks in Birihi and Ndeko villages in the Bashali Mokoto group in Bashali chiefdom in north-central Masisi on October 13.[xiv] CTP is unable to locate Birihi and Ndeko. The Bashali Mokoto group is roughly 15 miles southeast of Pinga on local roads.

M23 recaptured a village from Wazalendo fighters near Nyabiondo on the RP529 in Walikale district. Congolese media reported that Wazalendo fighters withdrew from Kibati village— about 13 miles west of Nyabiondo on the RP529—on October 13 after clashing with M23 and occupying the village briefly between October 10 and October 12.[xv]

Southwest Axis: Bukavu-Kamituga-Shabunda-Kindu

Nothing significant to report.

Major Political Developments

The DRC and M23 signed a Qatari-brokered agreement to establish a ceasefire verification mechanism. Representatives from the two sides resumed a sixth round of Qatari-mediated discussions and signed the agreement in Doha, the Qatari capital, on October 14.[xvi] Massad Boulos, US President Trump’s Africa advisor, hailed the agreement as a “critical step” toward a final peace deal and implementing the US-backed peace agreement between the DRC and Rwanda on social media on October 14.[xvii]

The agreement establishes a new body to serve as a forum for the DRC and M23 to report violations of the late-July ceasefire.[xviii] The body will consist of an equal number of representatives from the Congolese government and M23, along with members from the African Union, Qatar, and the United States.[xix] The mechanism will hold its first meeting within seven days of its formation and convene remotely on a monthly or ad hoc basis to coordinate verification.[xx]

The agreement relies on a ceasefire mechanism previously established by the International Conference on the Great Lakes Region, known as the Expanded Joint Verification Mechanism (EJVM), to monitor and then investigate, verify, and document alleged violations.[xxi] The October 13 agreement adds an equal number of DRC and M23 representatives to the EJVM and UN forces in a logistical capacity to form the “EJVM+.”[xxii] The two sides committed to grant the EJVM+ access to territory under their control and the frontlines to produce a weekly report on the security situation to be shared with all parties.[xxiii]

The FARDC called on the FDLR to disarm and surrender as part of the US-brokered peace agreement. FARDC spokesperson Sylvain Ekenge called on all FDLR factions in the eastern DRC to disarm and surrender peacefully to Congolese government authorities or UN forces for repatriation to Rwanda in a press release on October 10.[xxiv] Ekenge called on local populations to cease contact with the FDLR and help urge its fighters to surrender.[xxv] Ekenge did not include specific conditions or a timetable for the group’s surrender but said that the FARDC would proceed with planned military operations against the group if its fighters resist surrender.[xxvi] Ekenge said that all FARDC military personnel are prohibited from “collaborating in any way” with the FDLR.[xxvii] Massad Boulos welcomed the FARDC’s statement as a “decisive step” in implementing the peace agreement on social media on October 11.[xxviii]