Congo War Security Review, September 26, 2025

Data Cutoff: September 26, 2025, at 1 P.M. EST

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Key Takeaway: The DRC and Rwanda advanced a US-backed plan to begin military operations against an ethnic Hutu extremist militia group and withdraw Rwandan troops from the eastern DRC. M23 advanced southward from Nzibira in Walungu district in South Kivu. M23 reinforced its positions near Lubero town and in southern Lubero district in North Kivu.

Kinetic Activity in Rutshuru & Eastern Masisi Districts

Nothing significant to report.

Northern Axis: Lubero-Butembo-Beni-Bunia

M23 reinforced its positions near Lubero town and in southern Lubero district in North Kivu. M23 has reportedly been moving troops and heavy weaponry to several villages that it controls on the northern frontlines, including to Katondi and Kipese—about 10 and 15 miles south and southeast of Lubero town, respectively—and to Kirumba in the Kanyabayonga group in southern Lubero for the past two weeks.[i] Congolese media cited civil society members and locals in Lubero who said that M23 may be preparing attacks on Lubero town and pro-Congolese government Wazalendo fighters in southern Lubero.[ii]

Southern Axis: Bukavu-Uvira-Baraka-Kalemie

Nothing significant to report.

Northwest Axis: Masisi-Walikale-Lubutu-Kisangani

Nothing significant to report.

Southwest Axis: Bukavu-Kamituga-Shabunda-Kindu

M23 advanced southward from Nzibira in Walungu district in South Kivu. The Congolese media outlet Radio Maendeleo and pro-M23 sources reported that M23 captured at least one village and attacked Wazalendo positions in four villages in the Kaniola and Kamisimibi groups in Walungu, including Ndiba—11 miles south of Nzibira on a local road leading to Shabunda district on September 25.[iii] M23 General Bernard Byamungu led a public meeting with locals in Nzibira on September 26.[iv] Byamungu is the second most senior M23 military official as the Deputy Chief of Staff and Deputy Commander of Operations.[v]

Major Political Developments

The DRC and Rwanda advanced a US-backed plan to begin military operations against an ethnic Hutu extremist militia group and withdraw Rwandan troops from the eastern DRC. The DRC and Rwanda, along with members of the Joint Security Coordination Mechanism (JSCM)—Togo, the United States, and Qatar—met for the second JSCM meeting in Washington, DC, on September 17 to September 18.[vi] The JSCM members shared intelligence and negotiated and agreed to implement an Operations Order against the Forces démocratiques de libération du Rwanda (FDLR), beginning on October 1.[vii] Insider sources told Reuters on September 24 that the dual-sided plan to dismantle the FDLR and see Rwanda withdraw its troops will take place between October 21 and 31.[viii] The late June peace agreement accounts for a preparatory phase as part of a three-week interim period between implementation and the start of operations.[ix] The sources told Reuters that the DRC and Rwanda aim to complete the plan by the end of 2025 and that the 90-day window outlined in the agreement began with the first meeting of the JSCM in early August, not when the two sides signed the agreement.[x] The French state media outlet Radio France Internationale (RFI) reported that the next JSCM meeting is planned for October 21 to 22 in Washington.[xi] Reuters reported that the two sides have yet to schedule a head of state summit in Washington amid minimal progress in Qatari-brokered peace talks between the DRC and M23.[xii] The outlet reported, however, that the DRC and Rwanda will sign the US-led regional economic framework soon after a final round of discussions next week.[xiii]

The DRC and Rwanda reportedly disagreed on the security situation on the ground and the details of the military plan during the JSCM meeting. RFI reported that Rwanda claimed that the FDLR has between 2,000 to 3,000 combatants in North and South Kivu.[xiv] The Congolese government claimed that the FDLR has closer to 1,500 fighters.[xv] The DRC and Rwanda also disagreed over the details of the plan and the issue of M23. The nature of Rwanda’s support to M23 reportedly “bogged down” discussions in the JCSM meeting, and RFI reported that the DRC presented a plan for operations against the FDLR that included Rwanda and M23’s participation.[xvi] Rwanda said that neutralizing the FDLR is “solely the responsibility” of the Congolese government in response to its plan and claimed that Rwanda does not currently have troops and military equipment deployed in the eastern DRC.[xvii] RFI reported that the DRC then demanded that Rwanda present a plan of how it will withdraw its troops.[xviii]

The Rwandan foreign minister blamed the DRC for slow progress in implementing the peace agreement. Rwandan Foreign Minister Olivier Nduhungirehe claimed that the Congolese government has continued to “militarize” the eastern DRC and back and collaborate with the FDLR and Wazalendo militias in the eastern DRC despite the peace agreement in a speech at the UN General Assembly on September 25.[xix] Nduhungirehe claimed that the Congolese government has indiscriminately targeted Congolese Tutsi and Banyamulenge civilians using attack drones and fighter jets.[xx] Nduhungirehe said that Rwanda is “particularly concerned” with Wazalendo militias who commit violence against civilians.[xxi]

M23 conducted a cordon and search operation in Goma. Congolese media reported that M23 targeted at least two locations in the Karisimbi commune in central Goma on September 25.[xxii] M23 screened residents as part of the operation and reportedly arrested several dozen people, including young people and religious leaders, for suspected links to Congolese government networks.[xxiii]