Critical Threats Today

Lotfollah Forouzandeh, a senior official from the Popular Front of Islamic Revolution Forces, indicated that President Hassan Rouhani has failed to present “a clear plan” to address unemployment. Rouhani campaigned on the promise to resolve the issue of unemployment, but has struggled to do so in the wake of the 2015 nuclear deal. The Popular Front may use Rouhani’s track record on the issue as a rallying point against him ahead of the May presidential elections.

U.S. forces conducted more than twenty airstrikes against AQAP in Yemen on March 2. In contrast, the U.S. conducted roughly 30 airstrikes in Yemen in all of 2016. The airstrikes were not supporting concerted ground operations against AQAP by U.S. partners in Yemen.  Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and the Yemen government remain focused on fighting the al Houthi-Saleh forces rather than al Qaeda.  AQAP will therefore have time and space to recover from these airstrikes. The Yemeni civil war will perpetuate the conditions that allow AQAP to expand its support base despite U.S. airstrikes or direct-action operations. (Related reading: How the U.S. Should Re-Engage in Yemen) 

Kenyan Defense Forces (KDF) conducted multiple operations against al Shabaab militants in the Gedo and Lower Jubba regions of southern Somalia in the last two days. KDF officials claimed to kill 57 al Shabaab militants in an attack near Afmadow in Lower Jubba region. KDF airstrikes also targeted an al Shabaab camp and convoy near El Adde in Gedo region, the site of a mass-casualty attack that killed more than 100 KDF soldiers in January 2016. President Uhuru Kenyatta, who is up for reelection, seeks to reverse the narrative of defeat in Somalia in order to gain popularity and temper demands for the withdrawal of Kenyan forces from Somalia. (Related reading: US Counterterrorism Objectives in Somalia: Is Mission Failure Likely?)

Leaders of Ansar al Din, al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb’s Sahara division, the Macina Liberation Front, and al Murabitoun announced the creation of “Jama’a Nusrat ul-Islam wa al-Muslimin” or the Group for the Aid of Islam and the Muslims. Iyad Ag Ghali, leader of al Qaeda affiliate Ansar al Din, is the new group’s emir. The coalition reaffirmed its allegiance to al Qaeda’s senior leadership. 

Defense Minister for the UN-backed Government of National Accord (GNA) Mehdi al Barghathi assessed that al Qaeda is helping ISIS regroup and prepare to launch attacks from safe havens in southern Libya. ISIS militants have withdrawn into southern and western Libya since losing the group’s former stronghold of Sirte in December 2016. Barghathi’s claim that al Qaeda is supporting ISIS is not confirmed, but would have serious implications. ISIS lacks support from local populations in Libya, where al Qaeda and affiliated groups have extensive networks. Cooperation between ISIS and al Qaeda would make it easier for ISIS to regenerate its capabilities and resume an attack campaign targeting Libya or a neighboring state. (Related reading: Ignoring History: America’s Losing Strategy in Libya)

The reported U.S. strike killed two Afghan Taliban leaders in Pakistan’s Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA). Drone strikes in Pakistan have a history of provoking popular resentment and organized protests.