Pakistan
As the United States military continues battling the Taliban in Afghanistan, the border regions of Pakistan remain an increasingly important variable in the prospects for long-term success in both Pakistan and Afghanistan. Top Taliban and al-Qaeda leaders have established strongholds in the Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA), the Northwest Frontier Province (NWFP), and Baluchistan Province – all areas from which militants launch attacks on U.S. and NATO forces in Afghanistan. In this sub-section, the Critical Threats Project explores these and other issues in several in-depth pieces.
Pakistan Security Brief
Pakistan Security Brief: Daily tracking summarizing developments related to the security situation in Pakistan.
Analysis
Continuity Amidst Change: Pakistan's New Intelligence Chief: CTP looks at the change of command at the ISI and examines the role the new Director General is likely to play.
Taliban Reconciliation in Pakistan: Much Less Than Meets the Eye: CTP assesses reports of Taliban reconciliation efforts in Pakistan.
Hope and Change and Imran Khan: CTP looks at the unexpected rise of a new force in Pakistan politics.
Turbulent North Waziristan: Gul Bahadur Threatens to End the Peace: CTP examines the fallout from the latest violence in North Waziristan and the implications of a break with local Taliban strongmen.
Pakistan Is Wrong to Think It Can Replace the United States with China: CTP evaluates Pakistan's relationship with China.
Diversified, Not Diminished: Al Qaeda in Pakistan Since 9/11: This piece assesses the evolution of al Qaeda in Pakistan since 9/11.
Limited Goals, Limited Gains: The Pakistan Army's Operation in Kurram: CTP assesses the Pakistani military's latest operation in Kurram agency and its implications for the larger war effort against militancy in Pakistan and Afghanistan.
Ilyas Kashmiri: The Possible Death of an Al Qaeda Mastermind: CTP profiles Ilyas Kashmiri, one of al Qaeda's most operationally active senior leaders, and assesses the impact of his death on al Qaeda.
Militant Sympathies in Pakistani Army's Senior Ranks: CTP examines the facts behind and fallout from the army's arrest of a senior officer with ties to Pakistani militant groups.
Gearing up for a Long-awaited Offensive in North Waziristan: CTP analyzes reports that the Pakistani military may finally be taking on militants in North Waziristan and what such an operation may entail.
A Dangerous Mix: Militant Groups in North Waziristan: A CTP primer on the main militant groups operating from and sheltering in North Waziristan, their relationships with the Pakistani state, and with each other.
After Bin Laden: Confronting the Haqqani Network in Kurram: The death of bin Laden is not the end of al Qaeda; in fact the network continues to thrive among and benefit from other outfits in the region.
The Haqqani Network in Kurram: A joint report by CTP and the Insitute for the Study of War examines the expansion of the Haqqani Network into Kurram agency and the impact on security in Pakistan and Afghanistan.
Al Qaeda Speaks: Statement Confirms Osama bin Laden's Death: CTP looks at the first public statement released by top al Qaeda leadership following bin Laden's death and what it might mean for the network.
Kagan House Testimony: CTP Director Fred Kagan testifies on the hill on the persistent danger emanating from terrorist groups in Pakistan and why killing bin Laden is not the end of the fight.
Killing Bin Laden: CTP examines the details regarding the momentous assassination of al Qaeda chief Osama bin Laden in a raid on his safe house in Abbottabad, Pakistan
North Waziristan Terror Links: CTP compiles a list of the various terror plots and operatives targeting the West that have been linked back to the haven in North Waziristan.
Trickling home to South Waziristan: CTP looks at the impact and importance of the repatriation of tribesmen home to South Waziristan one year since their displacement.
North Waziristan Tracker: CTP tracks drone strikes, Taliban activity, Pakistani military actions, plots and threats and other key events related to North Waziristan agency.
Floods in Pakistan - Maps, Charts and Key Data: CTP has produced several graphics tracking the flood, its severity, the locations of terror-linked aid camps and more.
Floods in Pakistan: CTP analyzes the effects of the historic flooding in Pakistan and how radical Islamists are stepping in to take advantage of the relief efforts.
Pakistan's Army Chief's Extension: The Critical Threats team examines the recent decision to grant Pakistan's Army Chief a 3-year extension and its impact on the country's future.
Swat Operation Anniversary: A look at the state of Swat one year after the Pakistani military's operation to clear the valley of the Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan.
Qari Hussain Mehsud: A detailed profile of Qari Hussain Mehsud, a top deputy of Hakimullah Mehsud and the TTP's principal trainer of suicide bombers.
TTP Operational Link to Times Square
Orakzai Operation Tracker: The Critical Threats team catalogues and provides background materiel on the Pakistani military's latest offensive against the TTP in Orakzai.
A Sea Change in Pakistan?: CTP and the Institute for the Study of War examine the circumstances surrounding Pakistan's recent arrests of senior Afghan Taliban leaders.
FATA operations after South Waziristan: A new CTP report looks at recent and ongoing operations in the FATA since the end of major fighting in South Waziristan.
The Death of Hakimullah Mehsud: CTP looks at the circumstances surrounding Hakimullah's death, his potential successors, and the future of the TTP.
Phase 1 Analysis: Operation Rah-e-Nijat: A CTP briefing examining the end of the major combat phase of Pakistani military operations in South Waziristan and looking at what may lie ahead.
Waziristan Ground Operation Coverage: The Critical Threats team catalogues and provides background material on the Pakistani military's operation in South Waziristan.
War-gaming the Afghan Taliban: An assessment of the challenges that Pakistan’s security forces would face in an effort to target Afghan-focused insurgent groups.
Pakistan's war against Islamists: A look at the new Pakistani offensive in South Waziristan and what the U.S. reaction to that needs to be.
Hakimullah Mehsud: A look at the Taliban succession crisis following Beitullah’s death, Hakimullah’s subsequent rise to power and the challenges the TTP now faces.
Pakistani Military Options: An assessment of the different strategic options available for the Pakistani military to pursue in the aftermath of Beitullah Mehsud’s demise.
Beitullah Mehsud’s Death: An analysis of the circumstances surrounding the TTP chief’s death and its possible implications for the leadership of the Pakistani Taliban.
Pakistani Military OrBat: An Order of Battle listing Pakistani military units and their deployments in the FATA and NWFP specifically, and in the rest of the country in general.
Punjabi Taliban: An exploration of the increasing entry of the Taliban into Pakistan's core Punjab region.
MapS
North Waziristan Map: CTP has produced a map of North Waziristan showing the main areas of militant influence in the tribal agency.
FATA Conflict Maps: CTP has produced several maps of areas undergoing military operations. Detailed here are maps of the NWFP and FATA, and close-ins of Orakzai, Kurram and Bajaur agencies.
2009 Waziristan Conflict Map: Militant strongholds, military base locations, key contested areas and week-by-week listings of all incidences of violence relating to the insurgency in the FATA.
Biographies
Qari Hussain Mehsud: A detailed profile of Qari Hussain Mehsud, a top deputy of Hakimullah Mehsud and the TTP's principal trainer of suicide bombers.
Hakimullah Mehsud: A look at the Taliban succession crisis following Beitullah’s death, Hakimullah’s subsequent rise to power and the challenges the TTP now faces.
Turkistan Bhittani: A profile of the colorful ‘pro-government’ militant commander from South Waziristan who continues to pose a threat to the Pakistani Taliban.
Hafiz Gul Bahadur: A backgrounder on the most senior Taliban commander in North Waziristan and the principal host of the Haqqani network in Pakistan.
Maulvi Nazir Ahmad: An in-depth look at the second most important Taliban leader in South Waziristan; both the Pakistani government and the Pakistani Taliban are sparring for his support.
Qari Zainuddin Mehsud: An examination of the now-deceased leader of the anti-Baitullah-Mehsud Abdullah Mehsud group.
IN THIS SECTION
Continuity Amidst Change: Pakistan's New Intelligence Chief
CTP analyzes the change of command at Pakistan's premier intelligence agency, and comments on the ISI's new Director General, the challenges he will face, and the role the ISI is likely to play in the future of Pakistani civil-military and U.S.-Pakistan relations.
Taliban Reconciliation in Pakistan: Much Less Than Meets the Eye
Despite grand announcements, gestures, and claims of reconciliation among warring Taliban factions, little is likely to change on the ground with respect to Taliban operations in Pakistan.
Turbulent North Waziristan: Gul Bahadur Threatens to End the Peace
CTP looks at the fallout of recent violence in North Waziristan and examines how threats to end a peace deal with the government by Hafiz Gul Bahadur, the main local Taliban commander, may actually play out on the ground.
Hope and Change and Imran Khan
Pakistani cricketing hero-turned politician Imran Khan made a splash on October 30 with a rally that attracted hundreds of thousands of Pakistanis. It remains to be seen whether his populist platform will bring the public to the ballot box in 2013.
Limited Goals, Limited Gains: The Pakistan Army's Operation in Kurram
Was Pakistan’s military operation in Kurram this summer a success? While tactically successful, the offensive only targeted a small part of a larger enemy in a sliver of territory. The operation’s shortcomings expose the larger war effort against militants in Pakistan and Afghanistan to some dangerous long-term consequences.
Ilyas Kashmiri: The Possible Death of an Al Qaeda Mastermind
Ilyas Kashmiri, one of al Qaeda's most operationally active senior leaders, was allegedly killed in a drone strike in Pakistan on June 3, though recent reports dispute the claim. Killing Kashmiri, so soon after the morale blow of bin Laden's death, would represent another major setback for the al Qaeda network.
Militant Sympathies in Pakistani Army's Senior Ranks
It is unclear if Brig. Khan’s arrest marks the beginning of a genuine crackdown on radicalism and militant links in the military. Until the army is prepared to cut its links and crack down upon the full menu of militant Islamist groups in Pakistan, it will continue to see its personnel radicalized by association.
