Analysis

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Please find below the most recent in-depth analysis pieces from CriticalThreats.org.

Update and Assessment: December 16, 2015
By The Editors , December 16, 2015

The Critical Threats Project releases a weekly update and assessment on Iran and the al Qaeda network.

2015 Yemen Crisis Situation Report: December 14
By Emily Estelle, December 14, 2015

The Yemen ceasefire began at 9:00 PM GMT on Monday, December 14, but it remains tenuous following an al Houthi-Saleh rocket attack on a coalition base in Taiz governorate. The breakdown of the ceasefire would likely derail the simultaneous UN-led peace process and further prolong the conflict in Yemen.

The Russo-Iranian Military Coalition in Syria may be Deepening

The Russo-Iranian military coalition in Syria may be deeper than many have believed. The Iranian armed forces appear to be allowing Russian aircraft to use their military airfields in support of combat operations over Syria.

2015 Yemen Crisis Situation Report: December 10
By Emily Estelle, December 10, 2015

A former Guantanamo detainee resurfaced in Yemen as an al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) leader and spokesman.

Update and Assessment: December 9, 2015
By The Editors , December 9, 2015

The Critical Threats Project releases a weekly update and assessment on Iran and the al Qaeda network.

2015 Yemen Crisis Situation Report: December 7
By Emily Estelle, December 7, 2015

Growing instability in Aden presents an increasing challenge for the Saudi-led coalition and the Yemeni government under President Abdu Rabbu Mansour Hadi. The coalition’s local partners against the al Houthi-Saleh alliance may now be pursuing their own objectives.

A Global Strategy for Combating al Qaeda and the Islamic State
By Mary Habeck, December 7, 2015

Although the ongoing US-led airstrikes in Iraq and Syria demonstrate increased American resolve, the United States needs a new strategy to stop ISIS, al Qaeda, and affiliated groups: a counterinsurgency with ideological, security, diplomatic, economic, and political components.

2015 Yemen Crisis Situation Report: December 4
By Emily Estelle, December 4, 2015

Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) militants are taking control of key cities in Abyan governorate, reconstituting its presence in the area and potentially staging to threaten the Saudi-led coalition’s recent efforts to re-establish the Yemeni government under President Abdu Rabbu Mansour Hadi in Aden.

San Bernardino Shooting a Terrorist Attack with al Qaeda and ISIS Footprints

The San Bernardino shooting of December 2, 2015 was a terrorist attack conducted by perpetrators inspired by the Islamic State of Iraq and al Sham (ISIS) and possibly linked with and inspired by al Qaeda. The U.S. must expect that both groups will devote even greater resources to encouraging and supporting such attacks here and in Europe now that their feasibility has been demonstrated in both regions.

2015 Yemen Crisis Situation Report: December 2
By Emily Estelle, December 2, 2015

Pro-al Houthi forces launched their first large-scale ground assault on the Saudi-Yemeni border, signaling an inflection that may incite Saudi retaliation and possibly alter the Saudi-led coalition’s ongoing shift from combat operations to stabilization operations.