Analysis

Please find below the most recent in-depth analysis pieces from CriticalThreats.org.

Al Qaeda Threat to American Interests
By Katherine Zimmerman, August 5, 2013

Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula may be in the final stages of preparing an attack on American interests in the Middle East and North Africa region on August 7, 2013.  A number of factors suggest that the attack widely expected for Sunday, August 4, may, in fact, be planned for Wednesday, August 7.

The Future of Pakistan: What to Expect from Nawaz Sharif's New Government
By Reza Jan, July 31, 2013

Pakistani Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif's party, the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N), made history on May 11, 2013 when it won Pakistan's general elections and completed the country's first constitutional transition of power from one democratically elected government to another. Sharif’s government inherited a country rife with problems, however. 

The al Qaeda Network Responds to Egypt
By Robin Richards, July 23, 2013

The fall of the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt elicited reactions from the al Qaeda network.

Testimony: The Continued Expansion of Al Qaeda Affiliates and their Capabilities
By Frederick W. Kagan, July 18, 2013

The war against al Qaeda is not going well. Current trends point to continued expansion of al Qaeda affiliates and their capabilities, and it is difficult to see how current or proposed American and international policies are likely to contain that expansion, let alone reduce it to 2009 levels or below. Americans must seriously consider the possibility that we are, in fact, starting to lose the war against al Qaeda.

Mutiny in the Yemeni Military
By Sasha Gordon, July 10, 2013

The Yemeni military has long been weakened by corruption, fragmentation, and instances of insubordination, but in the past year and a half its soldiers have been bucking orders and casting out commanders at an increasingly faster rate. If this trend continues to accelerate, it risks knocking out a vital pillar of U.S. counterterrorism strategy.

Chart: Mutinied Organizations
By Sasha Gordon, July 10, 2013

Since President Abdu Rabbu Mansour Hadi was elected president on February 21, 2012, 22 brigades and one battalion have rebelled. 

Timeline: Instances of Insubordination in the Yemeni Security Forces
By Sasha Gordon, July 10, 2013

Since President Abdu Rabbu Mansour Hadi assumed office in February 2012, 22 brigades and one battalion have rebelled, as well as a handful of security organizations. 

Map: Chronology of Mutinies in the Security Forces
By Sasha Gordon, July 10, 2013

Soldier-level acts of disobedience have affected security units in several of Yemen’s governorates, sometimes in highly sensitive fronts like Abyan and Ma’rib where al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula has been known to operate. 

Challenges to America's Counterterrorism Strategy in Somalia
By Breuk Bass, Katherine Zimmerman, June 10, 2013

The outside-of-government push for a semi-autonomous region in the south, and the federal government’s inability to manage the crisis, exemplifies the challenge ahead not only for Somalia, but also for American counter-terrorism strategy in the Horn of Africa.

Drone Kills Top Taliban Leader and al Qaeda Ally Wali-ur-Rehman
By Reza Jan, May 30, 2013

Wali-ur-Rehman, top Pakistani Taliban leader and al Qaeda ally, was reportedly killed on May 29 in a U.S. drone strike. His death is a serious blow to the enemy and will have a significant impact on the Pakistani Taliban's leadership.