Analysis
Please find below the most recent in-depth analysis pieces from CriticalThreats.org.
Questions on MaliTerrorist attacks in Algeria and French military operations in Mali have raised questions about the impact of ongoing unrest in West Africa on the United States.
Forces Required for One U.S. Base in Afghanistan after 2014This report describes how to calculate the force requirements for keeping one single base in Afghanistan after 2014. It concludes that no fewer than 6,000 troops would be needed to keep one base reasonably safe and functional in Afghanistan. The notion of keeping only 3,000 troops is militarily infeasible.
The Reality of Retreat: Requirements for Counter-Terrorism Operations in Afghanistan after 2014Keeping only a few thousand troops in Afghanistan after 2014 will make counter-terrorism operations impossible.
How to Waste a Decade in AfghanistanAdministration officials are already leaking that the U.S. presence will be smaller than that requested by Gen. John Allen. Leaving a bare-bones U.S. presence will risk a return of the Taliban-- civil war.
Drone Kills Top Taliban Commander Maulvi NazirA U.S. drone strike in Pakistan’s South Waziristan agency killed senior Taliban commander Maulvi Nazir on January 2, 2013. Nazir’s death is significant and represents the biggest shake up of the Pakistani Taliban’s leadership in years. His death may also negatively affect Pakistan’s war against the Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan.
Yemen's Military Restructuring: Removing Saleh's NetworkYemeni President Abdu Rabbu Mansour Hadi issued a series of decrees yesterday that served to both restructure Yemen’s security forces and to remove remnants of ousted President Ali Abdullah Saleh’s network from official command positions.
Changing Landscape: Jihad in MaliThe unfolding developments in Mali and across West Africa deserve close attention, particularly given the region’s emergence as the new front in jihad.
Yemeni security forces reportedly arrested Frank Christian Motos, an American Muslim convert, on October 8 in Ataq, Shawah.
Why U.S. Troops Must Stay in AfghanistanWe must either stabilize Afghanistan at this minimum level or abandon the fight against al Qaeda and its allies in South Asia. Any alternative “light footprint” strategy is a dangerous mirage.
Map of Abyani Tribes: MethodologyThe reliance on tribal militias, called popular resistance committees, to hold territory in Yemen creates a requirement to understand the tribes and the inter-tribal relationships in and around the militias’ areas of operation. The slides detail the methods and sources used to map out the tribal areas in Abyan governorate.